MikeH: Rate of earning

[MikeH]

Just discovered this forum as I continue to educate myself in card counting. Done a lot of reading today. Was hoping that one of the wise might answer a question for me on likely rates of winning (for background Im based in the UK).

I have had CVBJ for about a week now and have been practising my skills for the rules/conditions that I might typically run into at a London casino (I understand these are 6D, Fair penetration, S17, Double on 9,10,11, DAS, no soft double, no surrender, no hole card). Not particularly favourable I think and I still need to work a lot harder on my counting skills.

Now when I plug those rules and conditions into the qfit winrate calculator I discover that my expected hourly win rate is ?3.36 with a bankroll of $10,000 and a spread of 8:1. Conclusion: I would be better off getting a newspaper delivery round. If I can get a bankroll of $50k and a spread of 20:1 then I can get the win rate up to $54.17. But 20:1 doesnt seem terribly realistic (and Im not thinking of a $50k bankroll in the early stages of counting).

The strong conclusion seems to be that I shouldnt be planning on giving up my day job (not that I would want to actually, but still). At best I might win myself a little pocket money.

Am I missing something, or has the blackjack golden goose long been slain?

Any thoughts/advice most welcome.

Thanks in advance

Mike

[Parker]

> Just discovered this forum as I continue to
> educate myself in card counting. Done a lot
> of reading today. Was hoping that one of the
> wise might answer a question for me on
> likely rates of winning (for background Im
> based in the UK).

> I have had CVBJ for about a week now and
> have been practising my skills for the
> rules/conditions that I might typically run
> into at a London casino (I understand these
> are 6D, Fair penetration, S17, Double on
> 9,10,11, DAS, no soft double, no surrender,
> no hole card). Not particularly favourable I
> think and I still need to work a lot harder
> on my counting skills.

> Now when I plug those rules and conditions
> into the qfit winrate calculator I discover
> that my expected hourly win rate is ?3.36
> with a bankroll of $10,000 and a spread of
> 8:1. Conclusion: I would be better off
> getting a newspaper delivery round. If I can
> get a bankroll of $50k and a spread of 20:1
> then I can get the win rate up to $54.17.
> But 20:1 doesnt seem terribly realistic (and
> Im not thinking of a $50k bankroll in the
> early stages of counting).

> The strong conclusion seems to be that I
> shouldnt be planning on giving up my day job
> (not that I would want to actually, but
> still). At best I might win myself a little
> pocket money.

> Am I missing something, or has the blackjack
> golden goose long been slain?

You're not missing anything. Now you know why we Yanks aren't flocking to London in massive numbers to play blackjack. :-) The game is indeed borderline unplayable. The limited doubling and lack of surrender really hurt the game.

However, a 1-8 spread is inadequate even for a six deck game with good rules. Most shoe players spread 1-12 or more.

Another option might be wonging, that is, finding ways to leave the table in negative counts. Having never played the UK, I don't know whether or not you could get away with this.

[MikeH]

Thanks very much for the swift reply Parker.

> You're not missing anything. Now you know
> why we Yanks aren't flocking to London in
> massive numbers to play blackjack. :-) The
> game is indeed borderline unplayable. The
> limited doubling and lack of surrender
> really hurt the game.

Hmmm, maybe I should keep my BJ playing on hold until I can visit the States and get into a good game. Would you advise looking for 1 and 2 deck games rather than 6 deck? Playing with the qfit earnings estimator suggests that you really have to go some to get a decent pay rate at 6 deck.
I've had a look through the CVBJ database of casinos and it appears that most of the big vegas casinos offer a 2 deck game with half decent rules (e.g. Bellagio).

> However, a 1-8 spread is inadequate even for
> a six deck game with good rules. Most shoe
> players spread 1-12 or more.

Thanks for the tip. Is the received wisdom that one should aim for 1:12 with 2 deck also, or will this be too obvious as the TC jumps around more (hence the correct bet jumps around more)?

> Another option might be wonging, that is,
> finding ways to leave the table in negative
> counts. Having never played the UK, I don't
> know whether or not you could get away with
> this.

Thanks again

Mike

[Parker]

> Thanks very much for the swift reply Parker.

You're most welcome.

> Hmmm, maybe I should keep my BJ playing on
> hold until I can visit the States and get
> into a good game. Would you advise looking
> for 1 and 2 deck games rather than 6 deck?
> Playing with the qfit earnings estimator
> suggests that you really have to go some to
> get a decent pay rate at 6 deck.

True. The problem, as we have discussed, is that you need a big spread to beat the UK shoes. Table minimums prevent you from dropping your minimum bet below a certain level, so the alternative is to raise your max bet. This, of course, necessitates a bigger bankroll in order to keep risk of ruin to an acceptable level.

> I've had a look through the CVBJ database of
> casinos and it appears that most of the big
> vegas casinos offer a 2 deck game with half
> decent rules (e.g. Bellagio).

There are indeed many good double deck games in Las Vegas. Most of the ones at the large casinos have higher minimums. For example, you would be hard-pressed to find a double deck game with less than a $50 minimum on a Saturday night. However, plenty of lower minimum games can be found in the smaller casinos, although the rules may not be quite as favorable (most commonly H17 vs. S17).

The other problem with going for the SD/DD games is that the casinos are fully aware that these games are attractive to card counters, and watch them closely. They also make the games less attractive to counters by limiting penetration. Right now the most common double deck game in Las Vegas is probably H17, DOA, DAS, no surrender, with 50-55% penetration.

> Thanks for the tip. Is the received wisdom
> that one should aim for 1:12 with 2 deck
> also, or will this be too obvious as the TC
> jumps around more (hence the correct bet
> jumps around more)?

Inded it would. The "conventional wisdom" is to use a 1-4 spread on single deck gamex, a 1-8 spread on double deck games, and 1-12 on the shoes. Naturally, bigger if you think you can get away with it.

BTW, there is one characteristic of the UK casinos that I find fascinating. All the casinos are private clubs requiring a membership. If a casino determines that a player is a card counter and thus no longer welcome, they simply send him a note in the mail informing him that his membership has been suspended, thus avoiding any nasty scene ant the table. Count on the British to come up with a polite way of handling a back-off! :-)

[BJ Majish]

> Hmmm, maybe I should keep my BJ playing on
> hold until I can visit the States and get
> into a good game.

> I've had a look through the CVBJ database of
> casinos and it appears that most of the big
> vegas casinos offer a 2 deck game with half
> decent rules (e.g. Bellagio).

Be aware that the CVBJ database is very old. If you do make a visit to the U.S., you might want to subscribe to Trackjack or CBJN to get the current conditions, enabling you to make a better choice of games.

[MikeH]

Thanks again for the reply Parker (and also BJ Majish).

> BTW, there is one characteristic of the UK
> casinos that I find fascinating. All the
> casinos are private clubs requiring a
> membership. If a casino determines that a
> player is a card counter and thus no longer
> welcome, they simply send him a note in the
> mail informing him that his membership has
> been suspended, thus avoiding any nasty
> scene ant the table. Count on the British to
> come up with a polite way of handling a
> back-off! :-)

This strikes me as a thoroughly British way of doing things. Rather than take someone into a back room with a couple of gorillas, we prefer to have a quiet word with a chap. Anything else is just not cricket.

One question on Trackjack - does it only cover US casinos, or is Europe (particularly the UK)covered too?

Cheers

Mike

[Norm Wattenberger]

> Be aware that the CVBJ database is very old.
> If you do make a visit to the U.S., you
> might want to subscribe to Trackjack or CBJN
> to get the current conditions, enabling you
> to make a better choice of games.

Quite right. And there is no update planned.

www.Blackjack-Scams.com

[Parker]

> One question on Trackjack - does it only
> cover US casinos, or is Europe (particularly
> the UK)covered too?

TrackJack covers the entire world, although UK coverage is somewhat spotty and incomplete.

[ACutter]

I haven't played London before... have you looked into the possibility of shuffle tracking?