The Phantom: $5 TABLES ATLANTIC CITY

[The Phantom]

Kiosk,

Many thanks for your lengthy and well-reasoned responses.

Your reply-posts have been most valuable to me.

As to your last paragraph in particular, and as to my personal best-strategy in general: Wouldn't you agree that as a beginning player, I might just as well hone my skills primarily in AC until I have a bigger bankroll. Then, facing better games in LAS, it should all come easier. (19th C. Russian general Suvorov: "Train hard, fight easy."

That being the case, how about this overall spread strategy at $5: 1-20 if losing, 1-100 if $500 ahead (instead of stopping at any win of $500). [Naturally, I've had $500 weekend wins and weekend $500 losses both; at which point, at either end, I stop.] My counting itself and BS play now seem good; still working on BS deriviations on count. I think of this to (a) reduce risk of ruin and at the same time (b) allow for larger overall expectation. Any thoughts on this?

By the way, it's nice to have mentors around. It's a lonely game out there at the tables.

------------------->

> When I reported on the Resorts game last
> month on the Green Chip board, it was
> $10-500 limits and the tables were about
> half full on a saturday afternoon. I noted
> that a lot of people passed by and watched,
> but few people actually sat down to play.
> There might have been a few people who knew
> about the bad 6:5 naturals payout, but i'd
> say the majority of people had never seen a
> face down, hand held 21 game on the east
> coast before, and had no idea how to play
> properly.

> I'm not surprised that they may have lowered
> it down to $5 minimums, given that they
> couldn't even attract a full table at $10.
> But this game is virtually useless for
> someone trying to make money via card
> counting, or any other system for that
> matter (never mind that Resorts hits on soft
> 17, takes no hole card and does not allow
> wonging mid-deck on top of the 6:5). This is
> strictly a "fun" game and I would
> "play" it only at Resorts as the
> three Trump stores were demanding $25
> minimums on my last visit.

> You might be missing the point of my first
> reponse to you in this thread. If you are
> serious about trying to make money at
> blackjack in the long term, then you cannot
> get by spreading 1-20 units with a $500
> bankroll on a game that has a maximum SCORE
> potential of about only 20.00-25.00. Your
> risk of ruin is too high in that you will
> tap out more often even while playing a
> positive EV condition. Believe me, if a good
> game ever popped up on the east coast, I
> would be ready to commit $10-20K minimum
> from my savings to give it a shot. But the
> sooner you can accept the reality of the
> math involved, the better. Save up more
> money, practice your skills, and hit a real
> game in downtown vegas or tunica.

> Atlantic City is the second largest gambling
> jurisdiction in the United States - both
> Trackjack and CBJN definitely cover all 12
> casinos on the boardwalk and marina. If I
> was to give unbiased opinion about both
> sites, I'd say that CBJN updates its data
> more diligently, but Trackjack is much
> easier to read and arrange the actual
> results. Most people I'd gather would want
> to combine info from both lists to make
> their final playing decisions.

> AC is only dealing single deckers because of
> the increased house edge of the 6:5 payout.
> They have no reason whatsoever to improve
> the odds on their shoe games, because
> counters can't realistically beat them and
> the affulent northeast ploppies who throw
> down black chips without ever picking up a
> blackjack book will pad their profits for
> years to come. Even if someone decides to
> start real 3:2 pitch games in this area, I
> doubt they will have decent enough
> penetration for any AP to take advantage of.
> Just be glad that CSM's have stayed out of
> new jersey up to this point.

> You can try plugging in some numbers at the
> www.bjstats.com site. Typical AC rules would
> be 8 decks, depth "good" (1.5/8
> decks), S17 DAS. with a 1-20 spread and
> Hi-Lo I18 Fab4, you're looking at an EV of
> 0.99% over the course of approximately
> 44,313 hands of play. does that sound like
> your $500 can handle that? probably not.

> Look, there are a lot of people who go to AC
> every weekend with $500 thinking they are
> going to win some money. But most of those
> people are playing slot machines. However,
> compared to the strategy that you're
> proposing, at least their money and playing
> time will last longer.

[kiosk]

> As to your last paragraph in particular, and
> as to my personal best-strategy in general:
> Wouldn't you agree that as a beginning
> player, I might just as well hone my skills
> primarily in AC until I have a bigger
> bankroll. Then, facing better games in LAS,
> it should all come easier.

You're still missing the point here. Playing BJ in AC will not significantly increase your bankroll in the long run, at most you will realize just under a 1% profit, and that's over the course of over 40,000 hands of play. with a meager $500 trip bankroll, you are able to risk only about 5 big bets with a 1-20 spread at a $5 minimum table (provided that you can even FIND one). I am not a counter myself but most of the books I have read suggest an absolute minimum of 25-50 big bets even for a short session of play. Even if the TC is astronomically high, your chances of winning any particular hand only increases about 2%, from 44% to 46%. If you are experienced enough even in basic strategy play, you know that even with a house edge at zero or even slightly in your favor, you can easily lose 5 hands in a row even in situations where you're "supposed" to win.

Look at it this way. If I gave you five $100 black chips and told the casino that you could wong in and bet one chip at anytime in any shoe when you had a mathematical advantage, you would still end up losing all 5 chips about 48.5% of the time. If you brought $500 every single weekend to AC for two consecutive years, you would realize a net profit of $1500 on a minimum aggregate cash investment of $25000. These figures may not be completely accurate, but even if you did try and calculate the exact numbers, they would be just as underwhelming.

> That being the case, how about this overall
> spread strategy at $5: 1-20 if losing, 1-100
> if $500 ahead (instead of stopping at any
> win of $500). [Naturally, I've had $500
> weekend wins and weekend $500 losses both;
> at which point, at either end, I stop.] My
> counting itself and BS play now seem good;
> still working on BS deriviations on count. I
> think of this to (a) reduce risk of ruin and
> at the same time (b) allow for larger
> overall expectation.

you can spread from 1 to 10,000 for all I care, the absolute plain fact is that YOU ARE NOT BANKROLLED ENOUGH. Are you saying that if you were up $500 for the session and the count was still high, you would bet your entire profits for the day on a single hand? Never mind the fact that there are no casinos that would tolerate a player spreading from one purple chip down to one red chip. Your plan to spread 1-20 on a $5 game simply is not realistic...3-4 tables open a few hours in the wee night is not a feasible battleground. a serious counter would start with no less than 1-8 at a $10 table, with a minimum session bankroll of $2000. That strategy would yield about $2.50 an hour of profit...roughly the same as the player would get in comps for flat betting.

The AC game is not significantly beatable in the long run, and even if it was, you don't have enough money to take advantage of it. Your physical proximity to the boardwalk is clouding your mathematical judgement of better games elsewhere. If you insist on going to war against a brick wall, then at least have a LOT more cash in your pocket before approaching, so you can handle the inevitable swings in wins and losses more gracefully. But any of your continued fantasies about cheap and easy profits, I will have to start ignoring. best of luck to you.

[Don Schlesinger]

>Look at it this way. If I gave you five $100 black >chips and told the casino that you could wong in >and bet one chip at anytime in any shoe when you >had a mathematical advantage, you would still end >up losing all 5 chips about 48.5% of the time.

Assuming that you doubled and split when you were supposed to, regardless of bankroll, I'd say the risk of ruin would be closer to about 95%!

Don

[Sun Runner]

> I am
> not a counter myself but most of the books I
> have read suggest an absolute minimum of
> 25-50 big bets even for a short session of
> play.

'25/50 big bets per session' would generally be a really really safe and secure minimal ROR.

I have not been keeping up with your's and Phantom's conversation, but what you state here is not accurate. Of course there are several variables, but a total BR of 50 or 100 max bets is doable; a session BR much smaller.

If Phantom has a renewable $500 each weekend -he's got a BR; the trick is determining how big it really is and how to use it.

[The Phantom]

If you insist on
> going to war against a brick wall, then at
> least have a LOT more cash in your pocket
> before approaching, so you can handle the
> inevitable swings in wins and losses more
> gracefully. But any of your continued
> fantasies about cheap and easy profits, I
> will have to start ignoring. best of luck to
> you. >

Thanks for your reply, Don. I don't disagree with it (except for the paragraph following). I am simply looking for a 1-2 year way of learning to be a competent counter, without having to travel far from home. I am not willing to start with a big bankroll until that period is over.

In no way do I have fantasies of 'cheap and easy profits.' I am simply mulling over ways of keeping the game interesting while honing my skills.

I do admit to finding both the theoretic and practical aspects and the play itself, of blackjack, fascinating.

[The Phantom]

Sun Runner [from me, Winter Bummer (?)]

It seems to me you've hit the nail on the head.

What's the difference if the "session" is 1 session of 20 hours of play over a weekend versus a 2,000 hour session played in segments of 100 weekends. All else being equal, I should think that the ROR might be the same. The issue is simply, as you say, about the BR, "how to use it."

------------------------>

> '25/50 big bets per session' would generally
> be a really really safe and secure minimal
> ROR.

> I have not been keeping up with your's and
> Phantom's conversation, but what you state
> here is not accurate. Of course there are
> several variables, but a total BR of 50 or
> 100 max bets is doable; a session BR much
> smaller.

> If Phantom has a renewable $500 each weekend
> -he's got a BR; the trick is determining how
> big it really is and how to use it.

[Sun Runner]

[Don Schlesinger]

> If you insist on

> Thanks for your reply, Don. I don't disagree
> with it (except for the paragraph
> following).

It was "kiosk" you were responding to, not me!

Don

[The Phantom]

> It was "kiosk" you were responding
> to, not me!

> Don

--------------->

Quite so. Sorry Don. (Of course, your options certainly great weight, for good reason; Kiosk is quite knowledgeable too. Both of you, good guys. Looking forward to any thoughts either might have to my post today of "The Core Issue".)