kiosk: middle class exposes ploppy myths once and for all

[kiosk]

(PART ONE: inspired by three-card soft 17 thread)

using the EV charts in the back of BJA3 (8D S17 conditions), one can calculate the percentage DIFFERENCE between the correct generic basic strategy play versus common ploppy variations. in addition, we can analyze what the usual reactions will be from other players at the table, as well as pit management, to see which plays are truly the most 'boneheaded' and/or detrimental. I'll also try and explain the mathematics of basic strategy in a way that might make more sense to novice players than most books that I have read in my own experience.

without taking specific hand composition into account, I believe there are 340 possible starting situations in terms of player's hand total vs. dealer upcard. of those, at least 90% of those hands are generally executed correcty by players of all skill levels, such as hitting on a hard 5 and not doubling down on a natural. the last 30 or so are the ones that are more debated among novice gamblers, and are the chief affectors of one's overall playing EV over time. let's break down a selection of these situations and see how Don's math settles the score:

#1: hard 12 vs. 2
standing = -0.289277 to -0.295061, depending on composition
hitting = -0.252241 to -0.254932
difference in EV = 3.5968 to 4.2820%

ploppy take - novices generally don't hit any low stiffs vs. dealer stiffs, though sometimes an extreme neophyte will hit a 12 because it seems "too low". if a BS player does hit the 12, generally it's not a big deal for the table, though one might expect some minor groans if you catch a face card and the dealer doesn't bust.

casino take - a counter would stand on hard 12 vs. 2 at TC +3, but this is probably not a major indicator of advantage play. with a 4% house advantage on standing vs. hitting, it's roughly the same as taking even money on blackjack insurance (3.8462%). the pit will generally look at more obvious plays to determine whether to make your life miserable or not.

#2: hard 16 vs. 7
standing = -0.476193 to -0.479214
hitting = -0.410030 to -0.410173
difference in EV = 6.6020 to 6.9184%

ploppy take - while nobody likes hard 16 regardless of skill level, ploppies will occasionally stand (especially if it's 3 or more cards) and hope for the dealer to bust. what they don't understand is, if the dealer has a pat card up (7 through ace), then the player's EV is roughly the same whether they stand on 16 or stand on a 6! This is one of the situations where you should play correctly not to win more, but to lose less. At casinos where they offer late surrender, ploppies will further their woes by not surrendering 16 against 9/10/A (costing them another 0.5 to 3.5% in EV) on top of standing against 7. And standing a 16 vs. Ace when you can surrender or hit is a massive 15%+ mistake!

casino take - hard 16 play is closely watched by surveillance when a big bet is out. This is particularly true when the dealer has a 10 up, since the hi-lo index is 0, a player standing is a tip off that he is aware the deck is positive, even if just +1. By standing 16 vs. 7, then TC is +9 or above and the SWAT team should be arriving shortly. So 16 vs. 7 might be better used by the casino to gauge whether a flat betting high roller is a strong (coffee shop) or a weak (steakhouse) player.

#3: A6 vs. 5
standing = -0.039214
hitting = +0.096952 (+13.6166% over standing)
doubling = +0.193904 (+23.3118% over standing, +9.6952% over hitting)

ploppy take - while soft 17 isn't as badly misplayed as soft 18, playing A6 incorrectly is WORSE on EV than with A7. This is because with a soft 18, you don't take another card vs. a dealer stiff unless it is to double down - otherwise just stand (which is what most ploppies do anyway, so not the end of the world). But with a soft 17, you MUST take additional cards, whether hitting or doubling, to improve your hand! Novices may be surprised to learn that by standing A6 vs. 5, they will actually LOSE 3.9% of all their bets over time. Note that the increase in EV for doubling down is exactly two times the EV of hitting (+0.096952 x 2 = +0.193904). This is because no matter what card you are dealt on top of your A6 starting hand vs. a dealer 5, you never take any more cards after that. Since you are getting +13.6% improvement (and positive overall EV) on this card that you have to take anyway, why not invest more money into it, no strings attached? The house is practically begging you to take their money back! Even so, ploppies probably only make the right play about half the time or less, but at least they don't bitch when BS players do it. Generally the ploppy will think that the BS player is being aggressive, or just not understand the play to begin with. The bottom line is, every single soft double on the basic strategy chart is a positive EV (read: profitable) play, so do it and always double the max!

casino take - the only time a counter would not want to soft double according to basic strat is in a high negative count. but when would that ever happen? On the other hand, positive counts might lure an AP to double more agressively beyond Fred Renzey's so-called "Rule of 9". At TC +1, A/3 vs. 4 becomes more profitable, as does A/8 vs. 5 and 6 (doubling soft 19 will put a red dot on your forehead though). While the soft doubling rule is a guaranteed loser for the casino, it fortunately sticks around because most people don't take advantage of it fully, if at all. However, depending on where you play, it is not unheard of for a casino to allow doubling only on hard starting hands (generally 9, 10 and 11). This is seen usually in places outside the USA, or in specific jurisdictions like 1 and 2 deck tables in Reno.

#4: TT vs. 6
standing = +0.703108
splitting = +0.568987
difference in EV = 14.0121%

ploppy take - "never split a winning hand!" is the common mantra repeated ad nauseum. Of course this is not quite correct if you get dealt a pair of 9's, but few people would argue that the chances of improving on an already pat 20 are slim to none. However, against a dealer stiff, a player may try to justify that winning two hands against a "bust card" is better than one. while it is true that splitting 10's will never be a net loser against any dealer upcard (even splitting tens against a dealer 10 technically still profits, if you can believe that), the loss in long-term EV will drag down the rest of your results in less-advantageous hands. This is one situation where both the ploppies and the mathematics are in firm agreement.

casino take - as if a bunch of angry ploppies pointing and yelling at you isn't enough to draw the PB's attention. Splitting tens against a 6 starts at TC +4, presumably when you already spreading a bit high to begin with. A +70% EV on a pat 20 is already one of the highest possible non-natural payoffs you can get in this game, why squeeze another 1-2% at the expense of getting your cover blown off like a roof in a hurricane. At Mohegan Sun for example, they specifically tell players they cannot split tens and honestly, that's just about the nicest thing they do over there. Concentrate on your betting efficiency and work on GETTING those pairs of tens to begin with, and not fucking around with them!

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alright, that's a decent start. let me know if you want any specific hands analyzed the kiosk way, and I'll work on them later this week. also I'm going to type up a chart of "biggest ploppy mistakes and how much it costs them" and "plays that people think are a big deal but mathematically are really not".

[mr bojangles]

[paranoid android]

[Don Schlesinger]

Congratulations on a fine and entertaining post.

Take a look at BJA3, pp. 99-101, for further ideas.

Don

[Radar]

[Ouchez]