Victor Francis: I'm Counting Cards

[Victor Francis]

On Tuesday I went to Atlantic City. I had a great time, did well at blackjack and learned some important lessons.

My friend wanted to play some craps. I did, I lost. And I went back and lost more. So my first lesson is, yes, craps is a losing game. Yes, I was warned here! Craps is fun, but not $300 fun!!!

I went and played some blackjack. Up to know I have been practicing at home with CV. I had played a few times in the last few months, but just basic strategy and practicing counting. I did very well, I would give myself a B grade. My first round I came out ahead $50. I lost the count twice, both times when people engaging me in converstaion. One was the pit person asking for my rating card. The other was later on when a ploppy told me I should never stand on 16 vs. 10. I decided to not tell him that you do when the count is above zero!

My second round was great. A couple shoes went high and I responded. One shoe went super high and I did very well. I had several hundred in chips. It felt great but a little overwhelming. This was no longer playing on the computer, this was real bets of $40 to $80 on a hand! But I did well and walked away at end of that round $260 ahead. I was giddy. I called a friend who counts and asked him if he felt high the first time he did well at counting and he had a similar experience.

More lessons. While I did well at keeping the counting I need to get better. I lost the count a few times and I'm sure I was not 100% accurate. I need to get quicker at counting. All of this I can work on with CV. Also I need to really understand my betting in relation to the count.

Overall, a great day. But next time I'm puitting a loss limit at craps!

[paranoid android]

> My friend wanted to play some craps. I did,
> I lost. And I went back and lost more. So my
> first lesson is, yes, craps is a losing
> game. Yes, I was warned here! Craps is fun,
> but not $300 fun!!!

The fact that you lost at craps and won at blackjack should not be any indication that craps is a losing game and blackjack is a winning game. You could have (almost) just as easily won at craps and lost at blackjack. Session results are meaningless until you have logged many, many sessions.

[paranoid android]

BTW: I'm not saying craps is a winning game and blackjack is a losing game. You came to the right conclusion, but for the wrong reasons.

> The fact that you lost at craps and won at
> blackjack should not be any indication that
> craps is a losing game and blackjack is a
> winning game. You could have (almost) just
> as easily won at craps and lost at
> blackjack. Session results are meaningless
> until you have logged many, many sessions.

[sam]

When a counter brags about the big win, one must keep in the mind the EV. How much one wins in excess of EV is due to the same variance that causes the non-counter to win. Grinding out something close to your EV might be greater cause of celebration. Not to say any win, large or small, isn't cause of celebration. You see the pros here brag it up just like the non-pros.

> On Tuesday I went to Atlantic City. I had a
> great time, did well at blackjack and
> learned some important lessons.

> My friend wanted to play some craps. I did,
> I lost. And I went back and lost more. So my
> first lesson is, yes, craps is a losing
> game. Yes, I was warned here! Craps is fun,
> but not $300 fun!!!

> I went and played some blackjack. Up to know
> I have been practicing at home with CV. I
> had played a few times in the last few
> months, but just basic strategy and
> practicing counting. I did very well, I
> would give myself a B grade. My first round
> I came out ahead $50. I lost the count
> twice, both times when people engaging me in
> converstaion. One was the pit person asking
> for my rating card. The other was later on
> when a ploppy told me I should never stand
> on 16 vs. 10. I decided to not tell him that
> you do when the count is above zero!

> My second round was great. A couple shoes
> went high and I responded. One shoe went
> super high and I did very well. I had
> several hundred in chips. It felt great but
> a little overwhelming. This was no longer
> playing on the computer, this was real bets
> of $40 to $80 on a hand! But I did well and
> walked away at end of that round $260 ahead.
> I was giddy. I called a friend who counts
> and asked him if he felt high the first time
> he did well at counting and he had a similar
> experience.

> More lessons. While I did well at keeping
> the counting I need to get better. I lost
> the count a few times and I'm sure I was not
> 100% accurate. I need to get quicker at
> counting. All of this I can work on with CV.
> Also I need to really understand my betting
> in relation to the count.

> Overall, a great day. But next time I'm
> puitting a loss limit at craps!

[Sun Runner]

> Craps is fun,

Craps is fun, it is a very social game. If I spend money playing craps it's just that tho, spending money. For all but the very sophisticated players (and I'm not sure about them!) it's a net loser.

> The other was later on
> when a ploppy told me I should never stand
> on 16 vs. 10. I decided to not tell him that
> you do when the count is above zero!

It kinda threw me off also the first time. A lady setting beside me, for about an hour, finally remarked I didn't play 16 v 10 the same everytime. I had no idea she was paying any attention to her play, let alone mine!

To parrot Paranoid Android's comments, winning/losing at craps/BJ based on session results is pointless. BJ, played properly, will always give you an advantage in the long run. Craps will never.

Have fun.

[Victor Francis]

Just to be clear, I'm not saying my experiences on Tuesday were any indication of what my blackjack, or craps, future will be like. But it was still a great experience. It was also a chance to confirm what I need to work on.

I haven't given up the day job!