newtobj: BJ experiment

[newtobj]

I tought my girlfriend BS for the AC multi-deck game. They have 6 and 8 deck games (S17, NRA, DAS, DA2, NS, SAD1). Most of the games vary from 75% to 80% pen. depending on the casino.

But, she doesn't believe in gambling, it would be nice if she shared my interest in BJ. I told her I don't believe in gambling either, that one can use math to beat BJ in the long run. She doesn't buy it and will not risk any of her own money on the game and she has no interest in counting cards. Since my interest in BJ takes me to AC pretty often, if she wants to spend time with me, she'll have to either develop an interest or at least tolerate my interest in the game.

She is, however, open to spending my money on the game. So I am thinking about trying a little experiment, I'll loan her $80 to play with, and I'll tell her to play a single shoe, at a $10 min. 8 deck game with approximately 75% to 80% pen. She may have a good experience and develop an interest in the game. I'll ask her to flat bet the table min. for one shoe, playing her BS and I'll let her keep her winnings above the $80 and if she loses, she could just give me back what she ends up with at the end of the shoe. I figure with reasonable variance she won't lose more than half of the $80. With about 1.5 decks cut off, 6.5 decks dealt, she will play approximately 20 hands, assuming 3 hands per deck X 6.5 decks = 19.5 hands per shoe. I'll round that up to 20. One standard deviation for 20 hands being around 4.9, I'll round that up to 5. So, for her $10 game, one shoe, flat betting, if she stays within 1 standard deviation, she will be between -51 and +49, giving the house it's .5% edge of $1. If she falls outside of that and into 2 standard deviations she will be between -101 and +99 and she could lose it all. No need to calculate out to 3 standard deviations, because she won't last that long.

Are my assumptions reasonable? Can this accomplish both of my goals of stimulating her interest in BJ at almost no cost to me? Or will my $80 be lost and this experiment not accomplish anything, except to reinforce her disinterest in gambling and BJ? Or should I have her play a 6 deck game the same way instead of an 8 deck? She'll get fewer hands, and therefore a smaller standard deviation.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Are my assumptions reasonable? Can this
> accomplish both of my goals of stimulating
> her interest in BJ at almost no cost to me?

The results shouldn't matter, but they probably will, and that's the problem. If she enjoys playing simply because she won, then she'll be disappointed with the many swings in the future. And, if she develops an instant dislike because she lost everything, then that, too, is not a fair representation of the game.

The cost to you means very little, but putting the whole decision on a single shoe just isn't very sensible.

> Or will my $80 be lost and this experiment
> not accomplish anything, except to reinforce
> her disinterest in gambling and BJ?

Unfortunately, I'd say that's probably the case. If she doesn't like the whole casino scene, one shoe won't change that. But, maybe you can play long enough to get comped to a nice buffet meal, and maybe you'll go to see a show after that. Maybe you can show your girlfriend that going to A.C. can be more than just playing blackjack.

> Or should I have her play a 6 deck game the
> same way instead of an 8 deck? She'll get
> fewer hands, and therefore a smaller
> standard deviation.

Really doesn't matter. Absolutely anything can and will happen in a single shoe.

Don

[Parker]

Um, you're assuming that your girlfriend can play perfect basic strategy. Given her lack of interest in the game, this seems unlikely.

More important, a single shoe is simply too small a sample to make predictions. Absolutely anything could happen. She could lose the whole $80 the very first hand (resplit to 4 hands, double down on all 4, watch dealer draw to 21, scream in horror), win several hundred dollars, or just about anything in between.

You really want to stimulate her interest in the game? Get a comp for the casino's best, most romantic gourmet restaurant. Over dinner, explain that the meal was free.

Trust me on this one. :-)

[Parker]

Don, posted 8:02 AM: "Absolutely anything can and will happen in a single shoe."

Parker, posted 8:03 AM: "A single shoe is simply too small a sample to make predictions. Absolutely anything could happen."

I guess that what they say about great minds . . . .

:-)

[SOTSOG]

Tell her you are going to go play Blackjack.
Give her the $80 and tell her to go buy some shoes or something.
She will be okay with the idea of you playing.

[greenhorn]

> I tought my girlfriend BS for the AC
> multi-deck game. They have 6 and 8 deck
> games (S17, NRA, DAS, DA2, NS, SAD1). Most
> of the games vary from 75% to 80% pen.
> depending on the casino.

> But, she doesn't believe in gambling, it
> would be nice if she shared my interest in
> BJ. I told her I don't believe in gambling
> either, that one can use math to beat BJ in
> the long run. She doesn't buy it and will
> not risk any of her own money on the game
> and she has no interest in counting cards.
> Since my interest in BJ takes me to AC
> pretty often, if she wants to spend time
> with me, she'll have to either develop an
> interest or at least tolerate my interest in
> the game.

> She is, however, open to spending my money
> on the game. So I am thinking about trying a
> little experiment, I'll loan her $80 to play
> with, and I'll tell her to play a single
> shoe, at a $10 min. 8 deck game with
> approximately 75% to 80% pen. She may have a
> good experience and develop an interest in
> the game. I'll ask her to flat bet the table
> min. for one shoe, playing her BS and I'll
> let her keep her winnings above the $80 and
> if she loses, she could just give me back
> what she ends up with at the end of the
> shoe. I figure with reasonable variance she
> won't lose more than half of the $80. With
> about 1.5 decks cut off, 6.5 decks dealt,
> she will play approximately 20 hands,
> assuming 3 hands per deck X 6.5 decks = 19.5
> hands per shoe. I'll round that up to 20.
> One standard deviation for 20 hands being
> around 4.9, I'll round that up to 5. So, for
> her $10 game, one shoe, flat betting, if she
> stays within 1 standard deviation, she will
> be between -51 and +49, giving the house
> it's .5% edge of $1. If she falls outside of
> that and into 2 standard deviations she will
> be between -101 and +99 and she could lose
> it all. No need to calculate out to 3
> standard deviations, because she won't last
> that long.

> Are my assumptions reasonable? Can this
> accomplish both of my goals of stimulating
> her interest in BJ at almost no cost to me?
> Or will my $80 be lost and this experiment
> not accomplish anything, except to reinforce
> her disinterest in gambling and BJ? Or
> should I have her play a 6 deck game the
> same way instead of an 8 deck? She'll get
> fewer hands, and therefore a smaller
> standard deviation.
...I went through the same problem with my girlfriend. Here's what I did: Instead of letting her play alone, I had here dress very sexy and taught her signals to play and bet. That way, we both get to play together, and this usually draws no heat as it appears that she is the only one playing. I don't get any heat because it doesn't appear that I'm playing, I'm just watching the cards and commenting that I don't want her to lose all my money, so I'm watching every hand intently. She is laughing, carrying on, and focusing on everything but the hand. Anyway, I hope this helps, and good luck!!
happy hunting!!
gh

[greenhorn]

> ...I went through the same problem with my
> girlfriend. Here's what I did: Instead of
> letting her play alone, I had here dress
> very sexy and taught her signals to play and
> bet. That way, we both get to play together,
> and this usually draws no heat as it appears
> that she is the only one playing. I don't
> get any heat because it doesn't appear that
> I'm playing, I'm just watching the cards and
> commenting that I don't want her to lose all
> my money, so I'm watching every hand
> intently. She is laughing, carrying on, and
> focusing on everything but the hand. Anyway,
> I hope this helps, and good luck!!
> happy hunting!!
> gh

..this will give you guys a feeling of "togetherness" and playing as a team will probably make her feel special, and you guys will be pulling off some classic team play, which will make her feel like a female James Bond. And she'll feel better about the "gambling" because together you'll win much more than if she was playing alone.
gh

[bfbagain]

but you are right about letting her play cards. You just have the wrong cards in mind.

Give her a credit card and send her away. Ask her to periodically check in with you while you're at the tables, and if winning, have her stand by you and give her some chips. If losing, give her another credit card and send her away.

Believe me, she'll be happier. And so will you.

Next on the agenda is to accumulate enough comps where you stay "for free" at the nicer places, and of course, eat at gourmet restaurants, also "for free."

This is a guaranteed win, for almost any woman I've ever known who initially didn't like the "gambling/casino" scene.

cheers
bfb

[Victor Francis]

As a newbie I have played in AC and Las Vegas. I would play $10 minimum, perfect BS and no counting. I have found that I would need to be able to lose 10 units. Not that I want to! But I accept it as part of the game. I had an experience of going down almost $100 and coming back up $25 ahead. This 10 unit figure is purely annecdotal and based on these limited experiences and practicing on the computer.

Before I leaned BS I played a $10 tbl in LV and lost $80 in what seemed like minutes!

As the others said, bring her shopping and pretend to be interested in what she bought.

[CAPT XII]

New, you might want to "slow" play this romance
for quite some time. You might be seeing the strong early signs of-"what's mine is mine, and what's yours can be mine too."

> but you are right about letting her play
> cards. You just have the wrong cards in
> mind.

> Give her a credit card and send her away.
> Ask her to periodically check in with you
> while you're at the tables, and if winning,
> have her stand by you and give her some
> chips. If losing, give her another credit
> card and send her away.

> Believe me, she'll be happier. And so will
> you.

> Next on the agenda is to accumulate enough
> comps where you stay "for free" at
> the nicer places, and of course, eat at
> gourmet restaurants, also "for
> free."

> This is a guaranteed win, for almost any
> woman I've ever known who initially didn't
> like the "gambling/casino" scene.

> cheers
> bfb

[Ouchez]