..so Rubin's doing some consulting there? It's nice to know that at least one casino has an enlightened enough veiw to hire somebody with a brain behind the scenes (I love his book)
...who knows? maybe this will turn into a
trend...
At any rate, I am far from a black chip player, but thanks for the info. Maybe I can do a little shoe wonging there until I can build the roll
D
I knew that EV and SD are determined by player action (betting)and game conditions but I was hung on the correspondence of variance and luck. Luck seemed blind and beyond the math. This is an important step for me to rid myself of this idea. It's clear to me now that variance is a function of the math. And it will work better for me if I don't use luck to describe any function of BJ. Thanks for your help.
Sam
> Variance is very much a function of the
> player and the game conditions.
> For example, a larger bet spread will
> increase your advantage but also increase
> your variance since you are pushing out
> higher top bets. The larger your spread, the
> more your results will tend to cluster
> around the results of those few big bets. A
> player betting $5-$50 will have smaller
> swings than a player betting $5-$100 even
> thought the later is playing with a larger
> advantage.
> The game rules are also important. If a
> blackjack game offers surrender then you
> will have the opportunity to forfeit half of
> your bet instead of losing it all. This
> becomes much more valuable when you play
> with larger spreads, such as in six or
> eight-deck games. Since the results will
> cluster around those few top bets, being
> able to pull back half of your big bets in
> bad situations can be VERY valuable in
> reducing your variance.
> Exactly. There is no way to avoid variance.
> That is why they call it gambling - it is
> not a sure thing. Even someone playing with
> a 90% advantage will not win every time, so
> even he will experience some variance.
> Predict, yes. Control, no. Short term, no.
> This is a little trickier.
> We can predict variance in terms of standard
> deviation. Knowing our standard deviation
> will give you a range that you can expect to
> be ahead or behind after a given amount of
> play.
> For example, let's say that my betting unit
> is $5, my EV is 2 units/hour and my standard
> deviation is 20 units/hour. We can determine
> this range by subtracting and adding our SD
> from our EV.
> This means that roughly 67% of the time I
> should be within one SD which is between
> -$90 ($10 EV - $100 SD) and $110 ($10 EV +
> $100 SD) and roughly 97% of the time I will
> be within 2 SDs which is between -$190 ($10
> EV - $200 SD) and $210 ($10 EV + $200 SD).
> This is how we predict variance.
> Controlling variance is a much more
> difficult task. There is no way to actually
> control how much "luck" you have,
> so the only way to control it is to limit
> your variance as much as possible. This will
> reduce the effect that variance has on you.
> This includes things like looking for games
> with surrender, sitting out negative hands,
> playing with a higher advantage, playing at
> a lower level (reds instead of greens or
> blacks), etc.
> Then comes the part about the short term.
> There is absolutely NO WAY to control your
> variance in the short term (no matter what
> John Patrick says!). Within an hour of play,
> anything can happen (at least, anything
> within 3 standard deviations!). The ONLY way
> to control your variance is to get into the
> long run sooner. The sooner your EV
> overcomes your SD the sooner you will be
> assured of a win. The smaller your SD is the
> sooner your EV will overcome it.
> For instance, someone playing with a 40 unit
> SD/hour will have larger fluctuations (both
> positive and negative) and will have to play
> for longer before he is assured of a win
> than a player with a 20 unit SD/hour. Sure,
> he may get luck in the first few sessions
> and triple his money, but that is not a sure
> thing. Gamblers pray for luck, Advantage
> Players pray for EV. The smaller your SD,
> the smaller the fluctuations will be and the
> sooner you will be able to dig yourself out
> of the hole. This is why a smaller SD will
> allow you to play fewer hands and still
> assure you of a win much sooner.
> -Sonny-
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