There was a recent long thread on BJ21 about luck/variance with the usual lack of agreement. Am I correct in thinking that any gain in excess of the math is a positive variance and any loss in excess of the math is a negative variance? If this is so, then it seems to me there's no sense for an AP to play in a negative count(even flat betting) because he's hoping for a positive variance just as the BS-progression bettor is hoping for a lucky run. The suspicion of that similarity of play-all AP and luck-dependent BS-prog was a distressing thought for me. Could be the losing streak I'm presently on is shaking my confidence in the math. Seeing non-AP's winning while I'm losing....Well you know the story. All those postings attempting to distinguish AP variance from non-AP luck didn't help either.

Thanks as always for explanations and help.