Thanks4thefish, Thanks for the good response.
> Professional blackjack is a business. You
> play thru neg counts because the long term
> profit expectation of playing positive
> counts exceeds the losses from playing
> negative counts.

> Many businesses do not make money in the
> first few years as expenses outweigh profit.

> In BJ, if you play a solid game, you will be
> theoretically making money from day 1!

> Remember too, that your losses in the short
> term, especially the big ones will be
> attributable to negative variance on the
> positive expectation bets, (ie losing your
> big bets when you have the edge), not the
> small grind from your negative expectation
> on your small bets. When you do get your ass
> kicked on small bets at negative counts,
> remember only a small part of this is
> because of the casino's edge.

> Just as you will experience negative
> variance on your positive expectation big
> bets, you will experience negative variance
> on your negative expectation small bets. You
> will experience positive variance also.

> BJ is the roller coaster from hell. Your
> fluctuations are going to be greater than
> the donkey who flat bets.

> Be thankful for this variance, as it's what
> thins out the herds of would be AP's. The
> variance is what allows the donkeys to often
> win thus providing them the incentive to
> return.

> I have also witnessed over a number of
> years, people who experience, 'short term
> positive variance continually' as Don.

> In relation to this, we must realize:

> a) Don't trust your senses. This person is
> quite likely close to expectation, but
> having the majority of their winning
> sessions whilst you are present.

> b) Somebody has to inhabit the small
> recesses at either side of the bell curve,
> ie the extremes of positive & negative
> variance.

> c) As APs our only desire should be to be
> within 1, or at worst 2 standard deviations
> from our expectation after playing an
> exhaustive amount. The long term is
> well.......pretty long.

> d) Whether our desire is more than this or
> not will have no effect on the eventual
> outcome.