I "know" you have better odds the fewer the decks, even if you play straight basic strategy, but when a friend of mine asked why I really could not articulate why and I don't recall anyone ever explaining why, at least in any plain english a layman could understand. I know it has to do with the fact there are more "bad" cards to draw from but that doesn't sound very scientific. Could someone here give me a better explanation?
Thanks
daveK
> I "know" you have better odds the
> fewer the decks, even if you play straight
> basic strategy, but when a friend of mine
> asked why I really could not articulate why
> and I don't recall anyone ever explaining
> why, at least in any plain english a layman
> could understand. I know it has to do with
> the fact there are more "bad"
> cards to draw from but that doesn't sound
> very scientific. Could someone here give me
> a better explanation?
> Thanks
> daveK
The experts may weigh in with more esoteric reasons, but the most obvious is that you'll get more blackjacks with fewer decks.
1 Deck Probabilities (to 3 significant figures)
Ace on first card: 4/52
Ten on second card: 16/51
Ace first blackjack: 4/52 X 16/51 = .024
Ten on first card: 16/52
Ace on second card: 4/51
Ten first blackjack: 16/52 X 4/51 = .024
Probability of 1 deck blackjack: .024 + .024 = .048 (about 1 out of 20.8 hands)
6 Deck Probabilities
Ace on first card: 24/316
Ten on second card: 96/315
Ace first blackjack: 24/316 X 96/315 = .023
Ten on first card: 96/316
Ace on second card: 24/315
Ten first blackjack: 96/316 X 24/315 = .023
Probability of 6 deck blackjack: .023 + .023= .046 (about 1 out of 21.7 hands)
Of course, the dealer gets more blackjacks as well, but he doesn't get paid 3:2 for his.
> The experts may weigh in with more esoteric
> reasons, but the most obvious is that you'll
> get more blackjacks with fewer decks.
> 1 Deck Probabilities (to 3 significant
> figures)
> Ace on first card: 4/52
> Ten on second card: 16/51
> Ace first blackjack: 4/52 X 16/51 = .024
> Ten on first card: 16/52
> Ace on second card: 4/51
> Ten first blackjack: 16/52 X 4/51 = .024
> Probability of 1 deck blackjack: .024 + .024
> = .048 (about 1 out of 20.8 hands)
> 6 Deck Probabilities
> Ace on first card: 24/316
> Ten on second card: 96/315
> Ace first blackjack: 24/316 X 96/315 = .023
> Ten on first card: 96/316
> Ace on second card: 24/315
> Ten first blackjack: 96/316 X 24/315 = .023
> Probability of 6 deck blackjack: .023 +
> .023= .046 (about 1 out of 21.7 hands)
> Of course, the dealer gets more blackjacks
> as well, but he doesn't get paid 3:2 for
> his.
I somehow went brain dead and put 316 cards in 6 decks rather than 312. The actual numbers (to 5 significant figures) are:
Probability of 1 deck BJ: 0.04827 (about 1 out of 20.72 hands)
Probability of 6 deck BJ: 0.04749 (about 1 out of 21.06 hands)
The number one reason is .. fluxuation.
(Man I hope that's right?!)
Bigger faster swings in the count.
SD, the count is up/down on every hand.
8Ds, the count acts more like a lazy river.
You better have your big bets ready and not be snoozin' when the count goes bad because the fewer the decks, the quicker it takes place.
Right before your eyes.
I believe that with fewer decks there is much less chance that the dealer will get a blackjack at the same time a player gets one. The number of player blackjacks does increase slightly with fewer decks, but it isn't by a lot.
Someone correct me on this if I have it wrong.
Who told you this?
The dealers odds of blackjack are exactly the same. Why would it be any different? On the first 2 cards dealers have exactly the same odds as getting the same hand as anyone else,including all the stiffs.
> I believe that with fewer decks there is
> much less chance that the dealer will get a
> blackjack at the same time a player gets
> one. The number of player blackjacks does
> increase slightly with fewer decks, but it
> isn't by a lot.
> Someone correct me on this if I have it
> wrong.
> Who told you this?
> The dealers odds of blackjack are exactly
> the same. Why would it be any different? On
> the first 2 cards dealers have exactly the
> same odds as getting the same hand as anyone
> else,including all the stiffs.
If there are 2 cards removed from 2 decks and there are 7 aces remaining, is the dealer's chance of getting an ace the same as if 2 cards were removed from 6 decks and only 23 aces remain?
> If there are 2 cards removed from 2 decks
> and there are 7 aces remaining, is the
> dealer's chance of getting an ace the same
> as if 2 cards were removed from 6 decks and
> only 23 aces remain?
Does this mean the dealer gets more blackjacks at double deck than players do,isn't that what we're talking about?
> Does this mean the dealer gets more
> blackjacks at double deck than players
> do,isn't that what we're talking about?
No. In any given game the dealer has the same chance as a player of getting a blackjack. What we were talking about was how the number of decks in the game affects the chances of a dealer getting a blackjack on the same round as a player.
If you are playing a 6 deck game you are more likely to have your blackjack cancelled by the dealer getting a blackjack also, than if you were playing a single deck game.
"I believe that with fewer decks there is much less chance that the dealer will get a blackjack at the SAME TIME a player gets one."
Yes,you're correct,I reread your post and noticed the word "SAME TIME".
Sorry
> No. In any given game the dealer has the
> same chance as a player of getting a
> blackjack. What we were talking about was
> how the number of decks in the game affects
> the chances of a dealer getting a blackjack
> on the same round as a player.
> If you are playing a 6 deck game you are
> more likely to have your blackjack cancelled
> by the dealer getting a blackjack also, than
> if you were playing a single deck game.
but I was starting to think I had remembered that tidbit wrong, glad Norm came in when he did. :^)
> than 6 deck lets see the math with this one,
as the Vegas critters do preach this.
that's not because of the number of decks. Nearly all SD games are H17. And although H17 helps the dealer overall, it also increases dealer busts.
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