New Guy: True Count Question

[New Guy]

Say I'm playing single deck and the burn card, a five, is flashed. If I'm using high low I have a TC of +1. If I'm using Hi Opt II the TC is +2 so I can make a bigger bet based on the same card. Is this correct?

[Dancer]

> Say I'm playing single deck and the burn
> card, a five, is flashed. If I'm using high
> low I have a TC of +1. If I'm using Hi Opt
> II the TC is +2 so I can make a bigger bet
> based on the same card. Is this correct?

Level 1 counts, necessarily, underestimate the value of removing a 5 from play. By the same token, the Hi-Lo player would overestimate his/her advantage to say the TC is +1 if the flashed card were a 2.

So you're right to say that Hi-Opt II has identified a greater advantage, but it's not twice as great. You'd need to consult CVCX or BJRM to determine the exact amount you should bet based on the advantage gained as the TC increases for the system you use.

[SOTSOG]

If I drive 60 miles per hour, I am going 100 kilometers per hour. I am not driving any faster if I measure my speed in kilometers rather than miles, even though the number is almost twice as large. However, if I want to choose a system that comes closer approximately telling me how fast I am really actually going, kilometers is probably better to use because the unit of measurement is smaller.

The power of HiOptII doesn't come from being bigger or larger, it is because it is more exact. Removing 2,2,3,5 from the deck or removing 4,5,5,6 are both represented by +4 in HiLo, while these two situations produce two different counts in HiOptII.

Say the flashed card was a Ten. The HiLo count would be -1, while the HiOptII count would be -2. Would the HiOptII player than bet half as much as the HiLo player?

The removal of a single card from play has an exact mathematical expectation. Any count system is just an approximation of that change.

Since humans are unable to add numbers like .0047, .0023, .0037 and then divide the sum perfectly by 49, counting systems were invented to approximate the effect of removal and come up with a simple approximate ratio. You are also approximating the number of cards remaining (in single deck, probably to the nearest quarter or half deck) instead of the exact number. You are further approximating your bet size for these approximations instead of betting an exact kelly factor (it would be kind of hard to bet $23.175 since casino chips don't come in these denominations, you will probably bet 4 red chips or maybe 1 green chip).

The effect of all these approximations? Not big enough to matter. Bet more with the advantage, less without it. Betting and playing perfectly (if you could do it) will amount to a few cents more per hour, and until you play a million hands, will be undetectable because of the standard deviation and variance in the game.

The HiOptII betting schedule is different than HiLo. Since it is a two level count, the HiOptII can easily be double a single level count. A +2 HiLo might be a good place to double your bet, but you might want to wait until +3 or +4 in HiOptII. Likewise, -2 would be a good place to wong out in HiLo, while -4 would be more optimal using HiOptII.

[Count of Montecristo]