newtobj: losing sessions

[newtobj]

It has now been several months since I had a winning session. To anyone out there, what is the longest you have gone without a winning session? Have you experienced the opposite, a long period of time with nothing but winning sessions?

[Ploppy Talk]

Yep, that's the truth...never lost for FOUR months.

However, I only played 3 times!

> It has now been several months since I had a
> winning session. To anyone out there, what
> is the longest you have gone without a
> winning session? Have you experienced the
> opposite, a long period of time with nothing
> but winning sessions?

[Count of Montecristo]

How many sessions have you had in those several months? I've gone six sessions in a row without a win but on the flipside, I just came off my all time best 15 consecutive winning sessions before losing my last one.
Make sure you're not making mistakes counting. Practice on one of the computer sims to see if you're overbetting or not keeping the correct count, or ramping your bets wrong. If you only play once a month and haven't won in 3 months, then I wouldn't worry too much about it.

> It has now been several months since I had a
> winning session. To anyone out there, what
> is the longest you have gone without a
> winning session? Have you experienced the
> opposite, a long period of time with nothing
> but winning sessions?

[newtobj]

> How many sessions have you had in those
> several months? I've gone six sessions in a
> row without a win but on the flipside, I
> just came off my all time best 15
> consecutive winning sessions before losing
> my last one.

It is good to know that a long streak of winning sessions can occur and last as long as the current streak of losing sessions that I am currently experiencing. It has been about 6 months since I had a winning session, playing 2 times a month.

[Don Schlesinger]

[newtobj]

A single playing session. Usually about an hour or two.

[Don Schlesinger]

> A single playing session. Usually about an
> hour or two.

Actually, if you played twice a month for six months, that would be 12 consecutive losing sessions. If you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session, then losing 12 in a row is about 0.47^12 = 0.0001161, or an occurrence that happens about once every 8,613 times.

I'd say that you've had some horrible luck.

Don

[Sun Runner]

Me .. not you.

> .. you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session

OK, I've never seen this before. If you have time to elaborate, please do. No doubt it's a basic principle, but thankfully we are on the Beginners Page.

Where/how is this type stat developed. I can't believe I have never heard that.

Is it a 47% chance of losing any session or only a one hour session?

If the former, what is the % chance of losing a two hour or three hour session?

Is this something easily calc'ed or did you read it somewhere? [ ]

Thanks.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Me .. not you.

> OK, I've never seen this before. If you have
> time to elaborate, please do. No doubt it's
> a basic principle, but thankfully we are on
> the Beginners Page.

> Where/how is this type stat developed. I
> can't believe I have never heard that.

> Is it a 47% chance of losing any session or
> only a one hour session?

> If the former, what is the % chance of
> losing a two hour or three hour session?

> Is this something easily calc'ed or did you
> read it somewhere? [ ]

Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp. 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top of p. 24.

Don

[Sun Runner]

.. and am looking forward to an autographed one of BJA3.

> Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp.
> 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top
> of p. 24.

.. and I'll read it again!

Thanks as always.

[Sun Runner]

" ... if you're about a 47% shot to lose a one-hour session, then losing 12 in a row is about 0.47^12 = 0.0001161, or an occurrence that happens about once every 8,613 times." -DS

> Assuming you have the book, go to BJA2, pp.
> 22-24, and especially Table 2.2, on the top
> of p. 24.

Previously you gave me the answer (above) to the probability of losing 12 one hour sessions in a row.

Why is losing 12 one hour sessions any more unlikely than losing one twelve hour session?

The table referenced above shows the probability of losing after one hour of play to be 47%. The table also shows the probability of losing after twelve hours of play to be between 41% and 38% .. lets call it 40%.

It seems NEWTOBJ should not feel as unlucky as 1 / 8,613 would indicate?

Signed -

Totally Confused On This Issue!

[Don Schlesinger]

> Why is losing 12 one hour sessions any more
> unlikely than losing one twelve hour
> session?

Because, to be behind after 12 hours, you could have had several winning one-hour sessions along the way. All you need to do to be losing after 12 hours is to have a NET loss of the individual 12 one-hour sessions; you're not required to lose all 12 in succession.

Clear?

Don

[Sun Runner]

> Clear?

Totally. I saw the error of my ways the minute I started reading the answer.

Thanks and Merry Christmas to all.