john hustler: CAN I BEAT THIS GAME?

[john hustler]

I play blackjack at harrah's casino located here in N.C. The blackjack here is video blackjack. Its six decks with 50% penertration,doudle on 10,11 only, dealer hits soft 17. The tables I play at have a $25 min and $1000 max(1-40) betting spread. THERE IS NO HEAT WHAT SO EVER FROM THE PIT BOSSES. I go from $25 to $1000 without no problems, but I have not been counting. IS THIS GAME BEATABLE WITH SUCH A SHOLLOW PENERTRATION BUT HUGE SPREAD? IS THERE A COMPUTER PROGRAM THAT I COULD USE TO TEST THIS?

[Parker]

> I play blackjack at harrah's casino located
> here in N.C. The blackjack here is video
> blackjack. Its six decks with 50%
> penertration,doudle on 10,11 only, dealer
> hits soft 17. The tables I play at have a
> $25 min and $1000 max(1-40) betting spread.
> THERE IS NO HEAT WHAT SO EVER FROM THE PIT
> BOSSES. I go from $25 to $1000 without no
> problems, but I have not been counting. IS
> THIS GAME BEATABLE WITH SUCH A SHOLLOW
> PENERTRATION BUT HUGE SPREAD? IS THERE A
> COMPUTER PROGRAM THAT I COULD USE TO TEST
> THIS?

I haven't run any sims, but the combination of terrible pen and lousy rules (H17, D10-11 only) would appear to be a lethal one-two punch.

A large spread doesn't help a lot when poor pen means that you will rarely see the high counts needed to take advantage of a large spread.

If you wanted to know for sure, the game could easily be simulated with CVData.

[SOTSOG]

Things he forgets to mention: Not only is the pen lousy, but this doesn't involve real cards, it is a machine. There is no discard rack to observe, so you have to estimate remaining cards by number of rounds played.

Also, even if you could play break even, why would you want to? This is the worst casino in the entire country, and the comps are pitiful.

Why don't you save your money? Tunica isn't that far, check the airlines, get a cheap flight to Vegas. Go to the riverboats in Florida, anything, but play this dump.

The only reason this place exists is because it draws from the gullible and ignorant (seemingly inexhaustable supply) from South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia.

[Dancer]

> I play blackjack at harrah's casino located
> here in N.C. The blackjack here is video
> blackjack. Its six decks with 50%
> penertration,doudle on 10,11 only, dealer
> hits soft 17. The tables I play at have a
> $25 min and $1000 max(1-40) betting spread.
> THERE IS NO HEAT WHAT SO EVER FROM THE PIT
> BOSSES. I go from $25 to $1000 without no
> problems, but I have not been counting. IS
> THIS GAME BEATABLE WITH SUCH A SHOLLOW
> PENERTRATION BUT HUGE SPREAD? IS THERE A
> COMPUTER PROGRAM THAT I COULD USE TO TEST
> THIS?

I ran a quick sim in CVData using Hi-Lo I18. If you bet $25 at all counts of +2 and below, and $1,000 at all counts of +3 and above, and you change machines every time the TC goes to -1, you'd make $23.70/hour with a massive variance.

Also, if you're spreading $25 - $1,000, and you're not counting, I hope you have lots of money...

[SOTSOG]

Why don't you fill Mr. John Hustler in on the VARIANCE, how much you could reasonably (and maybe not so reasonably) lose in a couple of hours with this spread, and the bankroll required to have any hope not to go broke.

With that size bankroll, CHARTER a jet to Vegas!

[Dancer]

> Why don't you fill Mr. John Hustler in on
> the VARIANCE, how much you could reasonably
> (and maybe not so reasonably) lose in a
> couple of hours with this spread, and the
> bankroll required to have any hope not to go
> broke.

> With that size bankroll, CHARTER a jet to
> Vegas!

I put massive variance in bold. Maybe I should have said MASSIVE!!. 3 SD's would easily run into the millions.

Then again, if he can afford to play $1,000 a hand without counting, maybe he has it.