BCAndrewT: KO Question

[BCAndrewT]

I just read KO Blackjack. My issue is this... 8 decks, 75% pen, and you're 5 decks deep so there's 1 deck left. The KO count (starting at -28) is -13. You don't have the advantage according to KO until -6, so at -13 you're still betting 1 unit. But say the person next to you is counting with a balanced count, and is at +15 with 3 decks left, so TC of +5. That's a count you'd certainly bet more than 1 unit with. So my question is, do you miss opportunities like this with KO? Is my logic correct here?

[Parker]

> I just read KO Blackjack. My issue is
> this... 8 decks, 75% pen, and you're 5 decks
> deep so there's 1 deck left. The KO count
> (starting at -28) is -13. You don't have the
> advantage according to KO until -6, so at
> -13 you're still betting 1 unit. But say the
> person next to you is counting with a
> balanced count, and is at +15 with 3 decks
> left, so TC of +5. That's a count you'd
> certainly bet more than 1 unit with. So my
> question is, do you miss opportunities like
> this with KO? Is my logic correct here?

No. The scenario you describe is impossible. The whole point of KO is that it is an unbalanced count, unbalanced by a factor of 4.

Suppose that we somehow ended up with a perfectly uniform pack. The hi-lo RC will remain very close to zero, so the true count will also be zero throughout the shoe.

With an 8 deck shoe, IRC of -24, we would see the RC decrease by 4 per deck. In other words, one deck into the pack we would be at -20, two decks -16. etc.

So, in this perfect, neutral shoe, we will be at -4 when we are five decks into it.

So, in your example above, if we are at -13 five decks into the shoe, there is no possible way that we could be at a Hi-lo TC of +5.

Still not convinced? Then lets do the math and convert our KO RC to Hi-lo TC. In order to do this, we first establish our IRC by the formula (-4 x #decks). So, our IRC will be -32 and your -13 will become -17.

We then convert to true count by dividing by the number of unseen decks, just like Hi-lo, and get -5.667 or roughly -6.

This method of true counting produces a true count in which zero is equal to the pivot point. In other words, KO TC 0 = Hi-lo TC +4. So, we add 4 to our KO true count, and we discover that your KO RC in the example above is actually equivalent to a Hi-lo true count of -2, not +5.

KO is always most accurate at the pivot point. When you are at the pivot, you have an equivalent Ho-lo TC of +4, regardless of where you are in the deck.

The further you get away from the pivot point, the less accurate the system becomes, and the more it varies by penetration. You can prove this to yourself by playing around with the TC formula discussed above.

It is true that KO (and all unbalanced counts used in RC mode) tend to underestimate your edge very early in the shoe, and overestimate it late in the shoe. However, overall they do a pretty good job of telling you when to get the money on the table.

[BCAndrewT]

I'm new here, but you certainly know your stuff. Thanks. I heard KO would be best for Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, which are closest to me. Would you say that's the case?

> No. The scenario you describe is impossible.
> The whole point of KO is that it is an
> unbalanced count, unbalanced by a factor of
> 4.

> Suppose that we somehow ended up with a
> perfectly uniform pack. The hi-lo RC will
> remain very close to zero, so the true count
> will also be zero throughout the shoe.

> With an 8 deck shoe, IRC of -24, we would
> see the RC decrease by 4 per deck. In other
> words, one deck into the pack we would be at
> -20, two decks -16. etc.

> So, in this perfect, neutral shoe, we will
> be at -4 when we are five decks into it.

> So, in your example above, if we are at -13
> five decks into the shoe, there is no
> possible way that we could be at a Hi-lo TC
> of +5.

> Still not convinced? Then lets do the math
> and convert our KO RC to Hi-lo TC. In order
> to do this, we first establish our IRC by
> the formula (-4 x #decks). So, our IRC will
> be -32 and your -13 will become -17.

> We then convert to true count by dividing by
> the number of unseen decks, just like Hi-lo,
> and get -5.667 or roughly -6.

> This method of true counting produces a true
> count in which zero is equal to the pivot
> point. In other words, KO TC 0 = Hi-lo TC
> +4. So, we add 4 to our KO true count, and
> we discover that your KO RC in the example
> above is actually equivalent to a Hi-lo true
> count of -2, not +5.

> KO is always most accurate at the pivot
> point. When you are at the pivot, you have
> an equivalent Ho-lo TC of +4, regardless of
> where you are in the deck.

> The further you get away from the pivot
> point, the less accurate the system becomes,
> and the more it varies by penetration. You
> can prove this to yourself by playing around
> with the TC formula discussed above.

> It is true that KO (and all unbalanced
> counts used in RC mode) tend to
> underestimate your edge very early in the
> shoe, and overestimate it late in the shoe.
> However, overall they do a pretty good job
> of telling you when to get the money on the
> table.

[Dancer]

> I'm new here, but you certainly know your
> stuff. Thanks. I heard KO would be best for
> Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, which are closest
> to me. Would you say that's the case?

"Best" is somewhat of a subjective matter. All systems have their relative pros and cons. If you consider winrate vs. difficulty, KO is arguably the "best" -- particularly for shoes games. Its winrate is on par with Hi-Lo, and it's easier to play. There are more powerful systems, but virtually all of them require more effort to master -- some significantly more.

The "best" system for you is one you can play accurately IN THE CASINO!! Once you've chosen your system, practice, practice, practice. Learn it cold. When you think you're ready to unleash your skills on the casinos, you won't be, but go ahead and try it anyway. Take it slowly, and play for small stakes as you build your confidence. You'll quickly learn there's much more to counting cards than counting cards.

Go for it!!

[K O Joe]

> "Best" is somewhat of a subjective
> matter. All systems have their relative pros
> and cons. If you consider winrate vs.
> difficulty, KO is arguably the
> "best" -- particularly for shoes
> games. Its winrate is on par with Hi-Lo, and
> it's easier to play. There are more powerful
> systems, but virtually all of them require
> more effort to master -- some significantly
> more.

> The "best" system for you is one
> you can play accurately IN THE CASINO!! Once
> you've chosen your system, practice,
> practice, practice. Learn it cold. When you
> think you're ready to unleash your skills on
> the casinos, you won't be, but go ahead and
> try it anyway. Take it slowly, and play for
> small stakes as you build your confidence.
> You'll quickly learn there's much more to
> counting cards than counting cards.

> Go for it!!
NT