boy 1935: leaving, when ahead

[Marc]

I am not aware of any good games at Caesars Indiana - what games are you playing (how many decks, CSM's?. With $500+ buyin, are you playing red or green and what spread? I would think that if you are seeing this type of consistant loss, then Basic Strategy alone is not working...that is why AP is a powerful tool. It can minimize those variances (not eliminate them!) And, provide an opportunity to win more often than lose. Another factor to consider in the example you provide - when you are losing/down...you are buying in more and more, giving the casino additional opportunity to take your $'s - sounds like buying based on emotional factors rather than logic (i.e. I'm down, I'm going to get this on the next shoe rather than I'm down, the count is in my favor, the statistics are telling me I have a shot at coming back).

[sam]

Marc,

Thanks for your response. I play both a double deck and a six deck game. Caesars Indiana has no shuffle machines on BJ. Two decks are cut from the six deck game. One deck cut from the double deck. On the double deck one can double down 9-11, no resplits and no double after split. Dealers do not hit soft 17 in either game. In the six deck one can split 4 times except for aces. One can double after split except aces. One can double any two card hand. No surrender in either game. I play green chips and usually progress bets $10 but rarely bet more than $55-60.

Yes, I clearly lose discipline and become emotional on the second and third buyin. I think I have that in hand now. The AP you mention stands for what? I have reasonable IQ but not great math skills. What counting system would be good to begin with? I have time to practice and could play red chips instead of green even though the red chip tables at CI are pretty wild. CI does a great job of keeping tables shoulder to shoulder which must work to their advantage because they get very nervous about less than full tables.

Thanks for your help.

SB

> I am not aware of any good games at Caesars
> Indiana - what games are you playing (how
> many decks, CSM's?. With $500+ buyin, are
> you playing red or green and what spread? I
> would think that if you are seeing this type
> of consistant loss, then Basic Strategy
> alone is not working...that is why AP is a
> powerful tool. It can minimize those
> variances (not eliminate them!) And, provide
> an opportunity to win more often than lose.
> Another factor to consider in the example
> you provide - when you are losing/down...you
> are buying in more and more, giving the
> casino additional opportunity to take your
> $'s - sounds like buying based on emotional
> factors rather than logic (i.e. I'm down,
> I'm going to get this on the next shoe
> rather than I'm down, the count is in my
> favor, the statistics are telling me I have
> a shot at coming back).

[Marc]

I apologize in advance for the long post!

AP = Advantage Play (what this web site basically exists to promote.) In essence, AP involves systems/incdices that allow a reasonably intelligent (and disciplined) player to make assumptions about what cards (or points) are left in the deck or shoe.

Unfortunately, Basic Strategy alone can not and will not allow you to have an advantage over the casino...it only minimizes loss, BS does not maximize winnings. When you add the emotional buyin plays with Basic Strategy, you increase your losses over BS alone...this is due to the fact that any emotional play virtually always causes one to deviate from BS at some time or another!

What AP does is give you information regarding when deviating from BS is in your statistical interest. Every counting system that I have ever seen or used is based first and foremost on Basic Strategy. One then adds a few easy factors including penetration (how many decks/cards are cut off), bank roll and table rules (such as stand or hit soft 17). A combination of these factors allow us to know with some certainty the statistical return (or actually the statistical loss) using Basic Strategy alone.

We then add counting points (the point value of the cards played) and use that point value to determine when to deviate from Basic Strategy (for instance, when to Surrender if offered, when to hit hard twelve against dealer hard 14 and so forth).

On this site as well as others, there are MANY books and programs available to teach you this point counting system and indices on how to play based on various point totals and table rules. Though it sounds like a bunch of MATH, it really isn't. If a person is disciplined (this is the real key and why I mentioned the emotional aspect of your play!) and one can count to 10 and memorize a few (as little as 18) basic rules in addition to BS - one can actually create a small advantage over the casino...not a large one EVER, but large enough so that over the LONG RUN, you can win.

I also play in the same region (in addition to a couple of trips to Vegas a year). I have found that Evansville normally has the best games in Indiana. Chicagoland/Northern Indiana is absolutely worthless. I have found that CI gives the most "heat" in Southern Indiana. One can occasionally find a decent table at Argosy. It is important to scout a good table (thus my questions regarding CI). The double deck game there is no good - you would likely have better "luck" at the 6-deck game.

With your $500 initial buyin and upto $500 additional buyin, I would recommend playing more red than green. At green level with Basic Strategy alone and with the standard deviation found with any system of play....you will continue to bust out/experience total ruin, more often that not. I would recommend you try $5-$10 as your standard unit and play a spread up to $25-$50 (spread 1-5 units) IF you learn AP... you will minimize your losses this way and if disciplined, increase your true odds of winning. Best of luck to you!

[Parker]

This is a good basic summary of what card counting and advantage play is all about.

It is important to understand that, while the card counter has a small advantage, variance is high and in the short run, anything can happen.

I don't ordinarily edit posts, but I took the liberty of adding paragraph breaks to make your post easier to read. Hope you don't mind.

[sam]

Thanks again for your responses. I'm reading about counting and will begin practice. I saw Olaf Vancura interviewed and think I will get his KO book and Don Schlesinger's also.

I've played Aztar a few times, Belterra, Grand Vic, and Argosy also. CI is a more convenient location. I'm have the summer free so I'll try other places.

Thanks again.

Sam

> I apologize in advance for the long post!

> AP = Advantage Play (what this web site
> basically exists to promote.) In essence, AP
> involves systems/incdices that allow a
> reasonably intelligent (and disciplined)
> player to make assumptions about what cards
> (or points) are left in the deck or shoe.

> Unfortunately, Basic Strategy alone can not
> and will not allow you to have an advantage
> over the casino...it only minimizes loss, BS
> does not maximize winnings. When you add the
> emotional buyin plays with Basic Strategy,
> you increase your losses over BS
> alone...this is due to the fact that any
> emotional play virtually always causes one
> to deviate from BS at some time or another!

> What AP does is give you information
> regarding when deviating from BS is in your
> statistical interest. Every counting system
> that I have ever seen or used is based first
> and foremost on Basic Strategy. One then
> adds a few easy factors including
> penetration (how many decks/cards are cut
> off), bank roll and table rules (such as
> stand or hit soft 17). A combination of
> these factors allow us to know with some
> certainty the statistical return (or
> actually the statistical loss) using Basic
> Strategy alone.

> We then add counting points (the point value
> of the cards played) and use that point
> value to determine when to deviate from
> Basic Strategy (for instance, when to
> Surrender if offered, when to hit hard
> twelve against dealer hard 14 and so forth).

> On this site as well as others, there are
> MANY books and programs available to teach
> you this point counting system and indices
> on how to play based on various point totals
> and table rules. Though it sounds like a
> bunch of MATH, it really isn't. If a person
> is disciplined (this is the real key and why
> I mentioned the emotional aspect of your
> play!) and one can count to 10 and memorize
> a few (as little as 18) basic rules in
> addition to BS - one can actually create a
> small advantage over the casino...not a
> large one EVER, but large enough so that
> over the LONG RUN, you can win.

> I also play in the same region (in addition
> to a couple of trips to Vegas a year). I
> have found that Evansville normally has the
> best games in Indiana. Chicagoland/Northern
> Indiana is absolutely worthless. I have
> found that CI gives the most
> "heat" in Southern Indiana. One
> can occasionally find a decent table at
> Argosy. It is important to scout a good
> table (thus my questions regarding CI). The
> double deck game there is no good - you
> would likely have better "luck" at
> the 6-deck game.

> With your $500 initial buyin and upto $500
> additional buyin, I would recommend playing
> more red than green. At green level with
> Basic Strategy alone and with the standard
> deviation found with any system of
> play....you will continue to bust
> out/experience total ruin, more often that
> not. I would recommend you try $5-$10 as
> your standard unit and play a spread up to
> $25-$50 (spread 1-5 units) IF you learn
> AP... you will minimize your losses this way
> and if disciplined, increase your true odds
> of winning. Best of luck to you!

[sam]

Parker,

Thanks for complimenting Marc. He was very patient and helpful to me. A nice guy.

Sam

> This is a good basic summary of what card
> counting and advantage play is all about.

> It is important to understand that, while
> the card counter has a small advantage,
> variance is high and in the short run,
> anything can happen.

> I don't ordinarily edit posts, but I took
> the liberty of adding paragraph breaks to
> make your post easier to read. Hope you
> don't mind.

[Marc]

Not at all...I appreciate it. I was on a oratorical roll as I saw myself in Sam's posting....before AP, I was just like Sam. Thanks again!

[Marc]

Best cards to you, Sam.
BTW, any of those books are fine. Don's are especially recommended. I also recommend getting a hold of any software that will help you practice AP. The most difficult part of AP really is learning to count the points QUICKLY and PERFECTLY. You can easily practice with a couple of decks of cards as well...simply by shuffling and dealing as quickly as you can. When you can count down 2 decks in about 2 minutes with consistancey...you have it.
The software allows you to do the same thing but without the shuffling. Even a cheap and readily available program like Hoyle Casino (@$30 anywhere) is valuable. Set it to its fastest play mode without any other players (just you and the dealer) and go to it. It also allows you to switch the rules around to what your local casino offers (i.e. 1 deck to 6 decks, hit/stand soft 17, surrender, even allows you to indicate penetration). It will also track the points and aces with you. This is the program that got me started.

[Dancer]

> Best cards to you, Sam.
> BTW, any of those books are fine. Don's are
> especially recommended. I also recommend
> getting a hold of any software that will
> help you practice AP. The most difficult
> part of AP really is learning to count the
> points QUICKLY and PERFECTLY. You can easily
> practice with a couple of decks of cards as
> well...simply by shuffling and dealing as
> quickly as you can. When you can count down
> 2 decks in about 2 minutes with
> consistancey...you have it.

Learning to count accurately and quickly despite distractions all while laying down your "act" is, indeed, the hardest part of the game.

The book and software recommendations are right on track, but I'd go a step further and recommend to any player, regardless of previous experience, to check out Norm's CVDrills (it comes with Casino Verite). It has no peer when it comes to improving your skills. In very little time, you'll be counting down 2 decks in well under a minute.

Stay in a cheaper hotel and use the money to buy the software you need to become a winning player. This is one area that it doesn't pay to hunt for bargains.

[sam]

>Good and thanks again. I picked up the Hoyle software and am ordering the books tomorrow from RGE. Sam

Best cards to you, Sam.
> BTW, any of those books are fine. Don's are
> especially recommended. I also recommend
> getting a hold of any software that will
> help you practice AP. The most difficult
> part of AP really is learning to count the
> points QUICKLY and PERFECTLY. You can easily
> practice with a couple of decks of cards as
> well...simply by shuffling and dealing as
> quickly as you can. When you can count down
> 2 decks in about 2 minutes with
> consistancey...you have it.
> The software allows you to do the same thing
> but without the shuffling. Even a cheap and
> readily available program like Hoyle Casino
> (@$30 anywhere) is valuable. Set it to its
> fastest play mode without any other players
> (just you and the dealer) and go to it. It
> also allows you to switch the rules around
> to what your local casino offers (i.e. 1
> deck to 6 decks, hit/stand soft 17,
> surrender, even allows you to indicate
> penetration). It will also track the points
> and aces with you. This is the program that
> got me started.

[sam]

>Dancer,

Thanks. What is Casino Verite?

Sam
Learning to count accurately and quickly
> despite distractions all while laying down
> your "act" is, indeed, the hardest
> part of the game.

> The book and software recommendations are
> right on track, but I'd go a step further
> and recommend to any player, regardless of
> previous experience, to check out Norm's
> CVDrills (it comes with Casino Verite). It
> has no peer when it comes to improving your
> skills. In very little time, you'll be
> counting down 2 decks in well under a
> minute.

> Stay in a cheaper hotel and use the money to
> buy the software you need to become a
> winning player. This is one area that it
> doesn't pay to hunt for bargains.

[sam]

> Dancer,

Forget my previous post other than the thanks. I found the Casino Verite info in The Blackjack Library.

Sam
Learning to count accurately and quickly
> despite distractions all while laying down
> your "act" is, indeed, the hardest
> part of the game.

> The book and software recommendations are
> right on track, but I'd go a step further
> and recommend to any player, regardless of
> previous experience, to check out Norm's
> CVDrills (it comes with Casino Verite). It
> has no peer when it comes to improving your
> skills. In very little time, you'll be
> counting down 2 decks in well under a
> minute.

> Stay in a cheaper hotel and use the money to
> buy the software you need to become a
> winning player. This is one area that it
> doesn't pay to hunt for bargains.