Mr. Ed: Cost of Counting Errors

[Mr. Ed]

What is the cost of counting down an 8-deck shoe and missing the running count by 2? I'd like an exact answer, but a rough approximation would be useful.

Here are the assumptions for a more exact anwer:

The distribution of running count error is:

-2: 20%
-1: 20%
perfect: 20%
+1: 20%
+2: 20%

Suppose the error happens with the first visible card.

This ramp is used:

TC<-1: wong out
-1<=TC<1: 1 unit
1<=TC<2: 2 units
2<=TC<3: 4 units
3<=TC<4: 6 units
4<=TC<5: 8 units
5<=TC: 10 units

The game is 8d, ls, DAS. 75% pen.

I would appreciate an answer in the form of "Your win rate will go from 1.00 unit/hour to 0.XX unit/hour."

Thanks for your help and comments!

p.s. Is there software that answers questions like this?

[Don Schlesinger]

> What is the cost of counting down an 8-deck
> shoe and missing the running count by 2? I'd
> like an exact answer, but a rough
> approximation would be useful.

I wouldn't know such an answer off the top of my head, but it's certain to be inconsequential.

Since you both overestimate and underestimate the count, the win rate may not suffer at all, in that you may be overbetting as much as underbetting. The variance would increase, I suppose, and, therefore, c-SCORE would suffer a little.

With six decks dealt, average of three decks is the mid-point of your playing range, leaving 5 decks remaining. TC is off by about 2/5 = 0.4. It's not going to have a huge effect.

Don