dpm123: Super positive counts

[dpm123]

Being a newbie, I'm trying to understand why when I have a real good TC like +16 or more that the 10's aren't just dumping out of the shoe. And when they do the dealer gets them and the players get whatever small cards remaining. On a few occasions I got burned on the high end of my spread, but I'm sticking with it because I what to follow the numbers and be in this for the long haul. I guess that's why they call it gambling. Nothing's fool proof. I was just surprised because Hi-Lo has a 97% BE.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Being a newbie, I'm trying to understand why
> when I have a real good TC like +16 or more
> that the 10's aren't just dumping out of the
> shoe. And when they do the dealer gets them
> and the players get whatever small cards
> remaining.

You know that if it always happened this way, there would be no card counting. So, you know that it's no fun to get burned and lose in high counts, but that you DO, in fact, win your fair share, over the long run.

Maybe you have a 10% edge at +16. Consider winning an even money play 55% of the time while losing 45%. That's a 10% edge. Do you lose now and then? Hell, you lose 45% of the time! Almost feels like 50-50! So, that 45% of the time is when the dealer is getting the tens and you're getting two stiffs.

Don

[Bert Nommel]

you lose more hands than you win. Your advantage comes from increased frequency of BJ's and the DD and split plays which will succeed more in high counts. Obviously, with the beg bets out the game is much more volatile during the high counts.

Bert

[SnoopDarr]

You'll feel great that time you're at +16, pull 8's, split, pull 3's, double, and beat the dealer's 20 for a +32 unit swing And remember, it's always easier to remember that 16 then that 21...

> you lose more hands than you win. Your
> advantage comes from increased frequency of
> BJ's and the DD and split plays which will
> succeed more in high counts. Obviously, with
> the beg bets out the game is much more
> volatile during the high counts.

> Bert

[Don Schlesinger]

> Even in high counts you lose more hands than you > win.

Sorry, Bert, but that happens not to be true. With no surrender, in shoes, the crossover is at about +6. In SD, it is sooner. At counts above those values, you win more hands than you lose.

Perhaps Norm will post the sim data to back this up. Perhaps he won't -- but it will still be true! :-)

Don

[RP]

> You'll feel great that time you're at +16,
> pull 8's, split, pull 3's, double, and beat
> the dealer's 20 for a +32 unit swing And
> remember, it's always easier to remember
> that 16 then that 21...

I wouldn't be splitting the 8's if the dealer had a 10 up at that high of a count; I'd be standing.

[T-Hopper]

> Sorry, Bert, but that happens not to be
> true. With no surrender, in shoes, the
> crossover is at about +6. In SD, it is
> sooner. At counts above those values, you
> win more hands than you lose.

And DD' has shown that you will have a net win more often than a net loss at some lower counts if you are playing 2 spots.

[Bert Nommel]

Counts above 6 are a small precentage of you high counts. Most of the time during high counts you still lose more hands than you win. Certainly, when the count is positive, you lose more hands than you win.

Bert

[Coug Fan]

> You'll feel great that time you're at +16,
> pull 8's, split, pull 3's, double, and beat
> the dealer's 20 for a +32 unit swing And
> remember, it's always easier to remember
> that 16 then that 21...

You could just as easily get the 10's first and lose both hands of 18 to a dealer 20. I have finally gotten to the point where I am just happy to see the aces and faces coming out with a high count. Over time I will get my share and the variance will even out.

[Cacarulo]

> you lose more hands than you win. Your
> advantage comes from increased frequency of
> BJ's and the DD and split plays which will
> succeed more in high counts. Obviously, with
> the beg bets out the game is much more
> volatile during the high counts.

That's correct when you play BS only. Now, if you add insurance then you start winning more hands at +7 (6d, hi-lo).
The percentages at +7 are as follows:

Win = 44.22%
Lose = 44.00%
Push = 11.78%

If we used more indices (R18) then we would start winning more hands at +8.

Win = 44.29%
Lose = 44.13%
Push = 11.57%

R18 without doubles and splits takes the index to +6. Surrender would take it up.

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo

[Don Schlesinger]

>Surrender would take it up.

I'm reasonably certain that, with surrender, one would NEVER win more hands than he loses.

Don

[Cacarulo]

> I'm reasonably certain that, with surrender,
> one would NEVER win more hands than he
> loses.

I can't say for sure but it's more likely than not. I ran the above sims a long time ago and haven't done any work with surrender.

Sincerely,
Cacarulo