FrankC: What would you do?

[FrankC]

I was practicing counting using a computer sim when I came upon this situation. The game was 6 deck, DAS, S17 and I was going one on one against the dealer. I was betting $5, using a 1 to 10 spread and KO as the system. I was trying to play as realistically as possible and make all the proper plays.

I got into one shoe where the count went high very quickly (above +4) and I had my maximum bet out. With my maximum bet out, I lost 12 consectutive hands and after the shoe was over I had lost $536 dollars. I had only won 13 out of 40 hands and lost almost all my max bets. This really shook me up and I really don't know how I would handled this if this really happened in a casino.

What I was wondering was if you are ever into the Shoe from Hell like this, do you just keep on putting out the money no matter how high the losses are going? I basically lost %25 of my simulated bankroll in one shoe. I have a feeling that in real life I may have bailed out earlier, but is that the right thing to do?

[phantom007]

Presuming the TC justified the max. bets, then the proper "real world" play would be to hold the course and play! It would even only be allowable to exceed "session Bankroll" in strongly pos. counts.

Some authorities suggest that unbelievable losing streaks indicate that you are being cheated by the Dealer. Unlikely with your computer program. And some of my largest wins have occurred after such negative B/R swings in pos. decks.

Good luck.

phantom007

[Parker]

> I was practicing counting using a computer
> sim when I came upon this situation. The
> game was 6 deck, DAS, S17 and I was going
> one on one against the dealer. I was betting
> $5, using a 1 to 10 spread and KO as the
> system. I was trying to play as
> realistically as possible and make all the
> proper plays.

> I got into one shoe where the count went
> high very quickly (above +4) and I had my
> maximum bet out. With my maximum bet out, I
> lost 12 consectutive hands and after the
> shoe was over I had lost $536 dollars. I had
> only won 13 out of 40 hands and lost almost
> all my max bets. This really shook me up and
> I really don't know how I would handled this
> if this really happened in a casino.

> What I was wondering was if you are ever
> into the Shoe from Hell like this, do you
> just keep on putting out the money no matter
> how high the losses are going? I basically
> lost %25 of my simulated bankroll in one
> shoe. I have a feeling that in real life I
> may have bailed out earlier, but is that the
> right thing to do?

You have reached an important milestone on the road to blackjack enlightenment. Now you know why there aren't more people doing this.

There are three legitimate reasons for leaving a table:

1. Playing conditions have deteriorated. A new dealer is giving lousy penetration, more players have joined the game, etc.

2. You are experiencing heat.

3. You are fatigued, hungry, emotionally upset, horny, or otherwise physically or mentally unable to continue playing at the best of your ability.

That's it. Note that conspicuously absent from the above is anything like, "I'm getting my a** kicked!"

You will hear all sorts of nonsense about avoiding "hot" dealers, "table bias," ad nauseum, and that is exactly what it all is - nonsense.

The "hot" dealer could cool off at any given moment. Your "losing streak" can just as easily follow you from one table to another. And if you leave a positive shoe to start from scratch at another table, you have given up valuable EV.

Also note that the wildest swings, in either direction, will happen during positive counts, because that is when the big money is being put on the table.

Having said all that, it is possible, especially for beginners, that the "shoe from hell" may indeed cause emotional distress to the point of affecting the ability to play optimally. In this case, it is probably a good idea to leave the table, go outside and get some fresh air, perhaps get something to eat, and then tackle the tables refreshed and re-invigorated.

Just be sure that you are doing it for the right reasons.

[Coug Fan]

If 13 may bets are approximately 25% of your BR, then your max bet may be a bit high. You should definately know and be comfortable with the risk of ruin for your chosen bet spread. Also, alot of counters use a session BR that is more like 10% of their BR.

I agree wholehartedly with Parkers post, and I would stress the "emotionally upset" reason. Unless you are an extremely disciplined person, big losses are likely to get you upset which will cause you to lose focus. This is also true for big wins and feeling invulnerable.