Sun Runner: BJA .. Floating Advantage

[Sun Runner]

I was reading the chapter on the Floating Advantage last night and was again confronted by something I continue to find amazing.

Without all the aids of modern science, how does a guy like Revere -in 1969 -determine the existence of a concept this small?

Did he sim it up on some old IBM main frame? Did he use a calculator? Pencil and paper? Did Griffin or Thorp chip in on the idea?

Or are some guys just born to gamble and can "feel" the advantage?

I think it must be the latter.

SR

[Don Schlesinger]

> Without all the aids of modern science, how
> does a guy like Revere -in 1969 -determine
> the existence of a concept this small?

He, personally, didn't.

> Did he sim it up on some old IBM main frame?

That would be Julian Braun, if anyone.

> Did he use a calculator? Pencil and paper?
> Did Griffin or Thorp chip in on the idea?

None of the above.

> Or are some guys just born to gamble and can
> "feel" the advantage?

I stated in the book that I felt neither Revere nor Uston truly understood the concept fully, which, of course, I can't really prove. Sometimes, people get right answers to problems through faulty reasoning or methodologies.

Don

[giuseppe]

http://frontpage.inxpress.net/grinde...ing/ablast.htm
..Thats about the size of it. (presuming Bryce actually wrote that)

[Sun Runner]

> I stated in the book that I felt neither
> Revere nor Uston truly understood the
> concept fully ...

No doubt they didn't, they could not have -and that is exactly my point.

> Sometimes, people get right
> answers to problems through faulty reasoning
> or methodologies.

Of course, true enough. But sometimes they get right answers through sound reasoning even though they do not have the means to prove it satisfactorily at the time. [i.e. Christopher Columbus]

You state Revere did not determne the existence of the FA, then who did? You state he did not use a calculator, pencil, paper, or receive aid from Griffin or Thorp, so how then?

You felt like the FA existed even though Snyder and Griffin told you different. And several years later -you were right and were able to analyze it fully.

I just believe guys like Revere were able to stumble on concepts such as these -early on -not because luck overcame their faulty reasoning but because they were always looking for the edge and had the ability to recognize it as it was passing by in front of them.

Apparently Revere would hustle his own students out of their last $5 and not feel a bit bad about it; but that is another matter entirely and not the point I was musing about originally.

SR

[Don Schlesinger]

> You state Revere did not determne the
> existence of the FA, then who did? You state
> he did not use a calculator, pencil, paper,
> or receive aid from Griffin or Thorp, so how
> then?

Julian Braun did all the computer and analytical work for Revere. It is also important to know that Uston did none of his own mathematical work, either.

> I just believe guys like Revere were able to
> stumble on concepts such as these -early on
> -not because luck overcame their faulty
> reasoning but because they were always
> looking for the edge and had the ability to
> recognize it as it was passing by in front
> of them.

Perhaps.

Don

[quark]

> I stated in the book that I felt neither
> Revere nor Uston truly understood the
> concept fully, which, of course, I can't
> really prove. Sometimes, people get right
> answers to problems through faulty reasoning
> or methodologies.

Reminds me of a game I know well... CHESS! At any given point there is a BEST move, but more importantly, you must make the best move for the right reason. If you do not know WHY, you may make the wrong "follow up" movesand be at a disadvantage. Similar is BJ, I suppose.

Are YOU the "real" author of the floating advantage theory? The one who "cut to the chase"? As I understand in BJA2, you arrived at a decision of too little, too late. True? Or has that changed since publication?

[von Clausewitz]

> Julian Braun did all the computer and
> analytical work for Revere.

Did Braun do the computer work for Revere's mail order systems as well as for Revere's book? What was Revere's contribution? The most recent edition of Revere's book does a hatchet job on the Hi-Opt I and II systems. It is at best a half truth as it ignore's the Hi-Opts' superior playing efficiencies and betting correlations. Didn't Braun do the computer work for the Hi-Opt's as well as for Revere?

[Don Schlesinger]

> Did Braun do the computer work for Revere's
> mail order systems as well as for Revere's
> book?

Yup.

> What was Revere's contribution?

The write-up.

> The
> most recent edition of Revere's book does a
> hatchet job on the Hi-Opt I and II systems.

And all the old editions, too! :-)

> It is at best a half truth as it ignores
> the Hi-Opts' superior playing efficiencies
> and betting correlations. Didn't Braun do
> the computer work for the Hi-Opt's as well
> as for Revere?

Yup.

Take all the trash talk with a grain of salt. They had no truly accurate way to compare systems back then.

Don

[Don Schlesinger]

> Are YOU the "real" author of the
> floating advantage theory? The one who
> "cut to the chase"?

I'd like to think that John Gwynn and I did the definitive study of the phenomenon up to that time. Truth be told, little has been done since.

> As I
> understand in BJA2, you arrived at a
> decision of too little, too late. True? Or
> has that changed since publication?

Nothing has changed. You find a deeply-dealt game, FA can become very important. The way the games are dealt nowadays, it has little value.

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

> Of course, true enough. But sometimes they
> get right answers through sound reasoning
> even though they do not have the means to
> prove it satisfactorily at the time. [i.e.
> Christopher Columbus]

Well, I?d use Columbus more as a comparison to Revere than as an example of sound reasoning. It was known that the World was round for many hundreds of years before Columbus. Obviously if you could go far enough East you would circle round. His reasoning that he could sail West to reach the Indies was dead wrong. He lucked out, hit land, erroneously declared that he had hit the Indies and robbed the natives blind.

Revere?s genius is that he got the math guys to do his work and then wrote a practical book that didn?t bother gamblers with the boring underpinnings. And he understood the importance of cover play. We?ll not know whether his knowledge of FA came from discussions with others, instinct or an erroneous conclusion that happened to work for other reasons. But he did spend his life in the business and wasn?t stupid. I like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Sun Runner]

> Well, I?d use Columbus more as a comparison
> to Revere than as an example of sound
> reasoning. It was known that the World was
> round for many hundreds of years before
> Columbus. Obviously if you could go far
> enough East you would circle round. His
> reasoning that he could sail West to reach
> the Indies was dead wrong. He lucked out,
> hit land, erroneously declared that he had
> hit the Indies and robbed the natives blind.

That's not the same story I learned in grade school!



SR

[Norm Wattenberger]

> That's not the same story I learned in grade
> school!

>

Yes, but I was taught in grade school that you couldn't beat a casino

I think grade schools still teach that the Earth goes around the Sun 70 years after Einstein.

[Sun Runner]

> I'd like to think that John Gwynn and I did
> the definitive study of the phenomenon up to
> that time.

And I think you would be right. A terrific study it was.

> Nothing has changed. You find a deeply-dealt
> game, FA can become very important.

Wasn't a deeply-dealt game the game Revere was fortunate enough to play most of his life thereby allowing him to possibly discern the existence of the FA? Like Mr. Wattenberger above, I would like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

It seems in every "profession" there are people who innately play the game better than others. Ball players, wall-streeters, card players, gamblers, etc.

Are they as educated in their chosen endeavour as those on say Don's Domain are in their's? No-not by a long shot.

But, I believe, some people are just born to play their game.

Enough about this from me.

SR

PS, and with all due respect, is Julian Braun still alive? If so does anyone communicate with him? No doubt he could shed all kind of light on subjects such as this and several others.