Ed: Want to build simulation tool need some help

[Ed]

Hello,

I want to build a simulation tool to optimize my gaming and betting strategies. I have not done extensive research in this area but I have an idea of what I want to do. I would like to use statistical models for probability and confidence interval calculations to determine gaming and betting decisions respectively. Is this a good method? Does anyone have any information regarding mathematical blackjack models?

Thanks in advance,
Ed

[El Poet]

> Hello,

> I want to build a simulation tool to
> optimize my gaming and betting strategies. I
> have not done extensive research in this
> area but I have an idea of what I want to
> do. I would like to use statistical models
> for probability and confidence interval
> calculations to determine gaming and betting
> decisions respectively. Is this a good
> method? Does anyone have any information
> regarding mathematical blackjack models?

> Thanks in advance,
> Ed
Hi Ed, Welcome to the world of BJ. I'm just one of the general community, but I'll offer my advice. You're on the right track to research experts like Advantage.com and your "gaming and. betting decisions" approach seems to match the way I think about it (plays and bets). There is a tremendous wealth of research already available. Most importantly, there are commercial simulation packages already tested, supported and available for reasonable prices. So be careful with your "make vs. buy" decision.

[Norm Wattenberger]

The development of a complete mathematical model for BJ is an intractable problem. This is why all BJ simulators use Monte-Carlo techniques.

[Dancer]

El Poet is on the right track, and Norm is too modest. Unless your interest is purely technical rather than financial, you can spend hundreds (or thousands) of hours writing and testing your own system, or you can invest a few bucks, get the info you need, and get to the tables sooner.

You only make money when you're at the tables.

Norm's program, CVData, is incredible!!

[V-man]

> The development of a complete mathematical
> model for BJ is an intractable problem. This
> is why all BJ simulators use Monte-Carlo
> techniques.

I read many BJ books but none mentioned the Monte-Carlo techniques. I remember the term mentioned somewhere in one of my computer science courses I took long time ago (forgot what it is). What is it?
Thks,

[El Poet]

> I read many BJ books but none mentioned the
> Monte-Carlo techniques. I remember the term
> mentioned somewhere in one of my computer
> science courses I took long time ago (forgot
> what it is). What is it?
> Thks,
Hi,
Monte Carlo is simulation usually done by computer with a built-in random process, allowing you to see the probabilities of different possible outcomes of strategies. It was first developed as a major tool in the 40's and 50's at Los Alamos, I believe, et al. This is a concept you will run into in all walks of financial life. I congratulate you on having the curiosity to ask and encourage you to brush up enough to understand comments like Norm's.

[Ed]

Hi,

Thanks for all the great responses.

I have a question about the Monte Carlo: Is it programed through software or is it Hardware based(ie special processor design)?

[Norm Wattenberger]

Nearly always software. I expect there are some super-computers that have various hardware aids.