I learned about the effects of penetration on player advantage only a few months ago, and I never really understood it. I had some kind of vague idea that the shallower the cut card, the larger the chance the big cards would be trapped behind it and never be dealt.

I just got TOBJ and I was reading the early chapters where he examines some interesting "remnants" of decks and their effect on basic strategy expectation. Of course, the less the remnant proportionately resembles a full deck, the less effective (generally) basic strategy is.

That's when it hit me. The reason good penetration is important is the deeper the penetration, the more likely it is the remaining cards will not proportionately resemble a full deck, just because of the small number of cards. This is what the counter can detect and exploit.

How far off am I?