RayMetz100: Risk of ruin

[Mister M]

I have been playing seriously(300 hours this year)now for over 4 years and when I finally ventured forth to express a few ideas and opinions on RGE I came to realise that I knew less than nothing, but am hear to learn ,communicate and advise where possible so as Don would say ,Here's my 2 cents!.LISTEN to these guys.Some of the best in the WORLD contribute here.Read some books,learn to count,bet and play correctly and you can have the free beer as well as WINNING a few bucks AND THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NOTHING WRONG WITH THAT!!GEEZ!

[Mister M]

If I wanted to make money on
> Friday nights, I'd be out delivering pizza,
> not sitting in a casino.
If you want a few drinks, free food and a general good time with the 'good 'ole boys' then all that is fine and dandy! BUT this freeloading can be enhanced by winning a few dollars too.

[Sun Runner]

Ray, you are posting on the correct board, so keep it up.

The real answer to your question is, there isn't one. You are citing numbers from bjmath.com, and others, that may be true in the long run, I haven't checked you out, but in the small numbers of hands you are talking about anything can happen, and will.

With a bankroll of $30, playing every so often, and only playing until your friends get tired, or drunk, there is no answer to the question you keep posting.

So have fun, soak up the comps, and gamble your $30 bucks. For you, it's entertainment money. Nobody should tell you how to spend it. Just don't expect a statistically sound answer to a question where no one exists.

Relax about it and enjoy the comps!

> Here's some odds from another game,
> drinking: House edge 100%, average price per
> drink $6.00, standard devation ~.5, target
> drinks per night 10. Expected loss: $40 -
> $100 per night.

In my opinion, you are on the right trail my friend. 10 drinks a night in the short space of time you seem to be talking about is not entertainment, for me. If these ten drinks an hour nights are taking place on a regular basis, during the week, your buddies may have a higher "standard deviation" than they are planning on.

Good luck

SR

[RayMetz100]

I found some technical resources on the web that apperantly answered my questions, and therefore increased my bankroll to $80 for now.

> Ray, you are posting on the correct board,
> so keep it up.

Thanks!

> The real answer to your question is, there
> isn't one. You are citing numbers from
> bjmath.com, and others, that may be true in
> the long run, I haven't checked you out, but
> in the small numbers of hands you are
> talking about anything can happen, and will.

> With a bankroll of $30, playing every so
> often, and only playing until your friends
> get tired, or drunk, there is no answer to
> the question you keep posting.

I did find some BJ standard deviations on the web at http://www.thewizardofodds.com/game/bjapx4.html

Will 1.1676 work in the spreadsheet I found at http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Betsize/winwayz/tmpweb.htm ?

When I plug these numbers into the spreadsheet...

Edge -.0062
StdD 1.1676
Bankroll $80
Bet Size $3
Rounds 200

The average long term expected loss should be around $3.72 for 200 rounds.

I should also be able to expect to survive the 200 rounds 88% of the time.

With my old bank of $30, my probabality of survival was only 43%.

So now I can deduce that If I play 2 nights a week, I should expect to loose my whole $80 about once a month. That's what I wanted to know.

Will someone take a look at these numbers and let me know if I missed somthing?

Playing with the numbers a little more, if I were to have a $100 bank, I would expect to loose it all about once every 2 months. If I were to have a $150 bank, I'd expect to loose it every 33 years.

Maybe I should up my bankroll to $150. But then I'd probablly end up playing more than 200 hands per night. with $150 bank, and 400 hands per night, 2 nights per week, it looks like I'd loose the whole $150 about once every 3 months.

Can someone check my math and see if it's right?

> So have fun, soak up the comps, and gamble
> your $30 bucks. For you, it's entertainment
> money. Nobody should tell you how to spend
> it. Just don't expect a statistically sound
> answer to a question where no one exists.

> Relax about it and enjoy the comps!

I only lost $11 of my $80 tonight. I was down $45 for a while, but I made it back. I had 3 friends with me, only one of them was playing (lost his $40) and we got comped 2 large pizzas, and an extra dinner slip I took home with me.

> In my opinion, you are on the right trail my
> friend. 10 drinks a night in the short space
> of time you seem to be talking about is not
> entertainment, for me. If these ten drinks
> an hour nights are taking place on a regular
> basis, during the week, your buddies may
> have a higher "standard deviation"
> than they are planning on.

It was 10 drinks per night, not per hour. but tonight I stayed out all night on only 2.5 drinks. That's a good thing. No hangover tomorrow. Woot!

Ray

[Steephen]

> I believe your ROR to be exactly 100%!It is
> vital to purchase some books NOW.
> An excellent start would be 'playing bj as a
> business' by Laurece Revere.The strategies
> ,betting advice and counts are first
> class,you can progress gradually from there.
> No offence but you are what the casinos love
> to see at the moment and will end up a
> 'looser'.
Dear Mr M.

I think the question you are asking is how long will it take me to lose a certain amount of money. to calculate this you would use the compound interest equation. If you have a calculator here is how it goes. The amount you are betting is Amount(A). The amount that will be left after betting F (Final) the return is -.47 or whatever the EV for the game is supposed to be. Negative in this instance because you are losing money not gaining it. t (Time) in this example is the number of times you bet it. So let me do an example for you and show you the equation.
Example 1000 bet 20 times
F(Final)= A(Amount Initial)X(1 (+/-)EV)^t
for $1000
F(final)=1000(1-.047)^t
F=1000X(.953^20) = $381.82
I assume you will be done when you don't have a $3 bet left.

So for 20,000 dollars of action it costs you $618.18 In this particular case.

PS the ^ sign..is the symbol for raised to a power.
If you have any questions concerning this feel free to ask me.

Steephen

[Mister M]

Your post should have been directed fao raymetz not to myself.My point to Ray was that he really should learn to count and play,bet correctly for surely you can see that his Ror is 100% otherwise.