Jack Fate: Why is it......

[Jack Fate]

I find this nice little S17 six decker last week with excellent pen. Less than one deck cut off. Pit is clueless. I'm spreading one unit to 2x10. I stay for about three hours and grind out a nice 57 unit win. Yesterday afternoon I go back. Conditions are still the same so I jump right in. After two shoes I'm down 40 units. Not to fear, I've got all day to get it back. Suddenly the place starts to fill up. This is no good. My table is full. Deck moves to a true of +6. I got max bet out,playing two spots at third base. I get a hard 17 on the first spot,and a pair of tens on the second. Dealer shows a 6. I figure what the hell, why not. I split 'em. I pull two more faces. Dealer flips over a face in the hole and draws a 5. Let me tell you, if you ever want to clear out a table, thats one way to do it. Long story short, I finsh the day with a 80 unit loss. My guestion to all you AP'ers is this. Why does it seem that a big win is almost always followed by an even bigger loss. Is it just my imagination, or all brought on by a simple twist of Fate. Regards, Jack.

[Ouchez]

> I find this nice little S17 six decker last
> week with excellent pen. Less than one deck
> cut off. Pit is clueless. I'm spreading one
> unit to 2x10. I stay for about three hours
> and grind out a nice 57 unit win. Yesterday
> afternoon I go back. Conditions are still
> the same so I jump right in. After two shoes
> I'm down 40 units. Not to fear, I've got all
> day to get it back. Suddenly the place
> starts to fill up. This is no good. My table
> is full. Deck moves to a true of +6. I got
> max bet out,playing two spots at third base.
> I get a hard 17 on the first spot,and a pair
> of tens on the second. Dealer shows a 6. I
> figure what the hell, why not. I split 'em.
> I pull two more faces. Dealer flips over a
> face in the hole and draws a 5. Let me tell
> you, if you ever want to clear out a table,
> thats one way to do it. Long story short, I
> finsh the day with a 80 unit loss. My
> guestion to all you AP'ers is this. Why does
> it seem that a big win is almost always
> followed by an even bigger loss. Is it just
> my imagination, or all brought on by a
> simple twist of Fate. Regards, Jack.

because you must have the heart of a true Warrior to play this game and nerves of steel! The game we play, as we play it, is not for the weak of heart. I experience what you have just went through over and over again. It is a bitch, for sure and for certain. You know the typical catch words, SD, bad cards, bad luck on and on...

It is most important that you keep playing the way you have, using the same unit size and spread so you can recoup that loss, and you will, with a bigger win. One danger now is that you will back down your bet size, have a big unit win, of much smaller units....then go back to bigger units and have a loss at the larger unit, and on and on, and on.

That was my biggest mistake in the past. Now I just "have at it" using all my great skillz and powers and it is a true war. You just gotta have the *gut* for it. You must trust in the math and remember that all your friends at RGE are behind you and pulling for you, really. When you are in the trenches and all looks bleak, think of us, we will be there in spirit to give you strength. You are not alone.

This weekend I had a devastating session only to be then half shoed, and then win it all back and more at another casino later that day.

This game is a MOFUer! It can stop being fun real FAST!

As for splitting tens, I did it the other day just to clear the table, neg count, dealer had a 9 up, did it and split 3 times, won all, and yep...2 folks left the table.

But Jack, I am sure your slills are fine and your counts are right on, so in the end you will do just fine. Just practice and make sure you are making no mistakes, make sure. I strive for perfection in my indice plays, made a couple stupid mistakes this weekend and it still pisses me of, and I made one at table max!

Jack, never give up, there is a true Warrior honor in "Dying With Your Boots On".

Regards,
Ouchez.

[Jack Fate]

Thanks for the kind words, Ouch. I'll be back there tomorrow going after it again. BTW, that U.P. trip I spoke to you about is getting near. I need to get my agenda to you soon.

[Parker]

Keep in mind that your expectation is to grind out a couple of units an hour. While it's comforting to pat yourself on the back, and scream into the mirror, "You da man!" after a 57 unit win, the cold hard truth is that that it was mostly positive variance, aka good luck, that got you the big win.

Since your expectation is modest, and variance is high, it stands to reason that you will experience plenty of big swings in both directions. Big swings (in either direction) are actually a good sign - they mean you are playing games where you are seeing high counts and getting the money on the table.

You will experience the largest swings in the best games. Unfortunately, these will not always be positive swings.

As Ouches alluded to (I think), the tough part is to "stay the course" and keep chunking the bets out when things aren't going well.

[Jack Fate]

Thanks for the imput, Parker. What you've said is the reason I continue to go for it. If it were easy everybody would do it. Drives me crazy sometimes.

[SOTSOG]

Because of the variance which Parker talks about, over 90% of the time you will be lower than the high you have had previously. So 90% of the time it seems like you are behind. You are either setting an all-time higher high, then you lose some of it back, which means you are playing 'catch up' almost all the time.

[Ouchez]

> Because of the variance which Parker talks
> about, over 90% of the time you will be
> lower than the high you have had previously.
> So 90% of the time it seems like you are
> behind. You are either setting an all-time
> higher high, then you lose some of it back,
> which means you are playing 'catch up'
> almost all the time.

some games are so good that you can actually be pulling ahead 90% of the time. Under the right conditions, and the correct skillz.

Regards,
Ouchez.

[Ouchez]

[Jack Fate]

Ahead 36 units. Had a hard time getting the money out yesterday. Never saw a count much above true +2. Suits were in the pit and dealers were holding down pen a little as a result.

[Ouchez]

[shuffle]

> some games are so good that you can actually
> be pulling ahead 90% of the time. Under the
> right conditions, and the correct skillz.

> Regards,
> Ouchez.

As a non-counter, I have had sessions where I got ahead and stayed ahead for two hours or more. I was pressing on winning hands and dropping back after a loss. Was I just extremely lucky or was I doing something right on my own?

[Parker]

> As a non-counter, I have had sessions where
> I got ahead and stayed ahead for two hours
> or more. I was pressing on winning hands and
> dropping back after a loss. Was I just
> extremely lucky or was I doing something
> right on my own?

If you're not counting (or using another form of advantage play), then all winning sessions are due to positive variance, aka "luck."

Note: "pressing on winning hands and dropping back after a loss" is not a form of advantage play.

[Jack Fate]

The thing thats becoming increasingly aparent is how profound poor or mediocre pen effects your results. If you don't see good pen you seldom see the counts you need to see to get the money out.A +6 running count with 3 decks left is a whole lot different than a +6 with 1 1/2 left to play.