Ouchez: Ploppy response to CSM's at S.E.

[Ouchez]

While doing a walk-through of S.E. I saw two friends, a male and female, that play together playing at a CSM table and I said "hi" and went on my way.

I ran into them at the grocery store last night and asked if they had won any money, this was the womens response, "no, we both lost, I can't believe those contraptions they have on all the tables, you can't even cut the cards and the game never ends, you can never get a good run going because the game starts over each time. I can't get a feel for the cards, I hate it, they don't even do that in Vegas. I won't play there anymore, it was crazy".

I understand that some BJ authorities have stated that a CSM really should be of no concern to a ploppy, and I can understand that reasoning to a point. However many ploppys I know who put in a decent amount of time at the tables WILL watch the cards as they come out, not count but watch, and as they see a lot of small cards they will raise their bets, or do the opposite if a lot of big cards come out. They will also not double at times if there were a lot a big cards that just came out and the dealer is strong. So while they do not count or play a true advantage game, they still place considerable value on seeing the run of the cards as they are played out. They also value cutting the deck.

I actually see a profit loss for the *all CSM casino* as even the ploppy will soon resist playing them. I also have never spoken to a dealer that enjoys working a table with a CSM.

Ouchez.

[Ed Tice]

I don't know too many ploppies who like the cheating shuffling machines either. Some BJ authorities say that they dont hurt the ploppies that much. I have a few thoughts on that, but I dont completely understand ploppy mentality. But when we do get a chance to interact with them, here are the things I think we should emphasize.

1. When a dealer makes an error, it is usually resolved in favor of the player. When a machine makes an error, it is resolved in favor of the casino. For example when a slot machine malfunctions and overpays you dont get to keep the money. But if it malfunctions and underpays you, you are SOL. If the dealer misinterprets a hand signal, the pit boss will resolve the error in the players' favor. Now lets say that the cheating shuffling machine is failing somehow and not spitting out enough tens and aces.... what would the casino do about it? Probably nothing. They might not even notice! But what if it spat out too many and everybody was winning? The casino would figure it out right away and replace it. So the use of the machine has NO potential to help you (I've never heard any authority say it can help you). And it has the potential to hurt you. I think this is what needs to be emphasized.

2. The machines are expensive. They cost $15,000 each. A BJ setup normally costs about $2000. So we are talking a huge price increase. The casinos are recovering that money somehow.

3. If the casino where to use "short shoes" they'd get in trouble with the casino control board. But software bugs happen all the time. If it was shown that the machine shuffled in a way such that the player got worse cards, they could blame it on a software bug and probably not get in trouble! Is this possible? Yes! I don't know what the procedures are in all casinos, but I have heard of three different procedures. (1) Deal out to about one deck penetration. This has the effect of a very shallow cut card and should be avoided! (2) Deal out one hand, accumulating the discards until the end of the hand and then reinserting. This would make it very easy for a machine bug to really kill the player... if the machine tended to bring cards back into play sooner when receiving a "fat" pile (most likely has more small cards) and more slowly with a "thin" pile (high cards), this could hurt the player... and this really could be just an acciden tin programming. (3) Reinsert as soon as possible (no discard tray at all). This is the only method that the ploppy should even consider trusting! And this is probably the least used (I've never seen it), because it would be hard on the dealers and take more time.

4.I highly advocate explaining to people that machines don't need tips, so when playing at a CSM table that they shouldn't give tips! The dealer can't shuffle any luck into the cards for them if the machine shuffles. This would get the dealers more on our side. I realize the dealers will scream at me for this, but they are screaming at the wrong people.

5. Point out that in many places they use the machines for the lower-stakes tables but not the higher-stakes tables! Why? higher stakes players know better than to play against these machines? How do you feel knowing the casino thinks you are dumb enough to play with them just because you play for $5!

Ed

> While doing a walk-through of S.E. I saw two
> friends, a male and female, that play
> together playing at a CSM table and I said
> "hi" and went on my way.

> I ran into them at the grocery store last
> night and asked if they had won any money,
> this was the womens response, "no, we
> both lost, I can't believe those
> contraptions they have on all the tables,
> you can't even cut the cards and the game
> never ends, you can never get a good run
> going because the game starts over each
> time. I can't get a feel for the cards, I
> hate it, they don't even do that in Vegas. I
> won't play there anymore, it was
> crazy".

> I understand that some BJ authorities have
> stated that a CSM really should be of no
> concern to a ploppy, and I can understand
> that reasoning to a point. However many
> ploppys I know who put in a decent amount of
> time at the tables WILL watch the cards as
> they come out, not count but watch, and as
> they see a lot of small cards they will
> raise their bets, or do the opposite if a
> lot of big cards come out. They will also
> not double at times if there were a lot a
> big cards that just came out and the dealer
> is strong. So while they do not count or
> play a true advantage game, they still place
> considerable value on seeing the run of the
> cards as they are played out. They also
> value cutting the deck.

> I actually see a profit loss for the *all
> CSM casino* as even the ploppy will soon
> resist playing them. I also have never
> spoken to a dealer that enjoys working a
> table with a CSM.

> Ouchez.

[Viktor Nacht]

is to tell the ploppies that the machines were designed to "shuffle the streaks out." This really gets 'em going, since it sounds like the casino is doing something intentional and effective to a phenomena they perceive as real.

It also works particularly well because many pit bosses believe in streaky shoes, as I've had this phenomena explained to me many times. Especially when I've been winning a lot. Some particularly moronic PBs will bring in a new cards early if a "streaky" table empties out.

Of course telling ploppies the above versus the truth, whereby the CSM gives them an oh-so-slight deduction in house edge and sometimes less decks then the hand shuffles game, has some ethical considerations. But for intellectual argument, it's a very good line for socially engineering the CSMs out of your fave casinos.

Be sure to throw in some legitimate sounding phrases like "all the tens and other complimentary cards (i.e. 7 and 4) get separated," and the usual stuff about the depersonalization of the game, how easy it is to cheat using a machine, and so on.

Streaky Cards,

V

[ET Fan]

But software bugs happen all the time. If it was shown that the machine shuffled in a way such that the player got worse cards, they could blame it on a software bug and probably not get in trouble! Is this possible? Yes!

I'll go one step further. They wouldn't call it a bug at all. They'd call it a feature, and might even advertise it as such in the SM promotional literature. In fact, they might hire someone to spend years programming something like this in. There are geniuses who were shuffle tracking decades before Snyder wrote the ST series who have done programming for the other side.

The order of the discards is not random. A few hundredths of a percent on the house edge =s millions on the P&L statement at the end of the year. The onus should be on the casinos to PROVE the machines don't increase the house edge. It can't be done. You can't prove a negative.

ETF

[ET Fan]

A few hundredths of a percent on the house edge =s millions on the P&L statement at the end of the year.

This might ne true for a major chain like Harrah's. I wrote out a ballpark calculation. For an average/large casino, (12 tables, 400 hands an hour, 24 hours a day, $15 average bet) 0.03% is worth $189k, not millions.)

ETF

[Ed Tice]

I don't think its unethical at all to point out the bad sides of the machines.

Yes it is true that there is a fraction of a % house advantage decrease (which theoretically benefits the player) when a cheating shuffling machine is in use, depending on the procedures. But the downside I pointed out still exists.

Where I live they do not put the cards back in the machine after each round. They deal out one pack. This has the effect of dealing out a shoe and putting the cut card at one deck. Sorry this is worse than the shoe dealt version of the same game. It also does acheive the extra 20% hands per hour that the machines promised to deliver (and failed on).

In Griffin's book, he did a study on the effects of dealer shuffling and found that casino shuffling procedures do not completely randomize the cards and that this benefitted the players, resulting in a game with a lower house edge than that actually calculated mathematically. The machine takes this away.

Many casinos accumulate the cards for an entire round before reinserting in the machine. Again a machine bug could result in the machine dealing a much less favorable game in this situation. This is the common technique used, I believe, and is the one at which the trivially reduced house edge would occur.

Sometimes the cards are inserted immediately. Bust your hand and they go back in right away. This results in an "infinite deck" game and is WORSE for the player than the 6 or 8 deck shoes.

Therefore of all the three possible uses of the machine I described above, all but the second are mathematically worse for the player!

The first mechanism is much worse for the player and also makes it easy for the casion to use preferential shuffles (I have seen this yes!).

The second technique does result in a slight mathematical advantage for the player (ignoring Griffins valuable studies), but is the case where a machine bug would hurt the player the most.

The third way is worse mathematically for the player as it is an "infinite deck" game. But it is the only way in which you should trust the machine at all.

Therefore from a players perspective, I think that if you play, you should demand that all cards be returned to the machine as soon as possible (busted hands), or you shouldn't play at the machine at all. And this has good reason. The casino would, of course, hate this (I don't know any that do it), because it would SLOW down the game. Method #1 (dealing out one pack) is preferred by the casinos because its the only way they get their 20% increase in hands, but it is much worse for the player.

Method #2 is theoretically trivially better, but if there were a slight machine bug would murder the player. It probably does not result in the 20% hands per hour increase that was originally claimed (due to the time it takes to put the cards in after each hand).

Method #3 is theoretically worse but is the only case in which you could trust hte machine. It would result in 20% less hands per hour (my estimate) so not so bad for the player, but bad for the casino.

A cheating shufflign machien costs about $15,000. A BJ setup without one costs about $2,000. The fact is that money is coming from somewhere - the player! That doesn't change. If this money is not recovered in the game rules, ti is in comps... casinos are out to make money... they dont spend money and not get anything in return.

The fact is that these machines are only ever in use on low-denomination tables, because high-stakes players know better (they might even agree with my points above). So a low-stakes player should feel bad that the casino thinkts its okay to stick them with the machines.

The casinos talk about anti-counting with the machines, but you see them only at low-denomination tables where all of the good counters wont be playing! So they stop only the worst (red-chip) counters! So they are not for this purpose.

They are for extracting more money from the tourists and low-rolling ploppies and if I were in either category I would be personally offended to find one of them on the table. And anybody in these categories who does find one ought to share the same sentiments. I am just helping them understand why.

So I am not being unethical. I am disagreeing with the 'BJ authorities" who say these machines aren't bad for the regular player. And I think that they need to reevaluate their positions!

Ed

> is to tell the ploppies that the machines
> were designed to "shuffle the streaks
> out." This really gets 'em going, since
> it sounds like the casino is doing something
> intentional and effective to a phenomena
> they perceive as real.

> It also works particularly well because many
> pit bosses believe in streaky shoes, as I've
> had this phenomena explained to me many
> times. Especially when I've been winning a
> lot. Some particularly moronic PBs will
> bring in a new cards early if a
> "streaky" table empties out.

> Of course telling ploppies the above versus
> the truth, whereby the CSM gives them an
> oh-so-slight deduction in house edge and
> sometimes less decks then the hand shuffles
> game, has some ethical considerations. But
> for intellectual argument, it's a very good
> line for socially engineering the CSMs out
> of your fave casinos.

> Be sure to throw in some legitimate sounding
> phrases like "all the tens and other
> complimentary cards (i.e. 7 and 4) get
> separated," and the usual stuff about
> the depersonalization of the game, how easy
> it is to cheat using a machine, and so on.

> Streaky Cards,

> V

[Ouchez]

[Ed Tice]

Sinceu I am on a rant abou tthe damn CSMs and since the rants seem to be well received...

I read a post over at bj21.com today (grem chip area) that confirmed my feelings... that casinos using CSMs *do* employ preferential shuffles. I certainly have tried backcounting them and can definitely say that the shuffle is preferential. In fact there is a one2six dealt came here that uses a very preferential shuffle... but its beatable for me, because they are more concerend with protecting the "super 7" side bet while getting in the highest number of hands. (I wont be beating the game, though, since I dont have the bankroll to support max bets at TC 1.2).

Also in this thread is a comment about "shuffling the streaks out" and "eliminating hot shoes". APs seem to turn their noses up at these things.

But hot shoes *do* exist. I define a hot shoe as one where lots of small cards are cut off! These shoes are really exciting to ploppies since they end up winning. Unfortunately there are an equal number of "cold shoes".

The hot shoes are funny for those of us who Wong out because we end up leaving and going to the bathroom (we count a low TC) and everybody makes fun of us when we come back... because we 'missed a great shoe..." We pull back our bets and everybody else wins.

There are "cold shoes" too.... those were lots of big cards are cut out.... everybody loses on these (especialy the counters, since we have our big bets out in the 'monster' count... but the big ones never play) and they cancel out the hot shoes exactly leaving the house advantage right at the calculated amount....

"Hot shoes" and "cold shoes" do exist and they are part of the game for everybody. And IMHO one of the most fun parts of the game.

The machines *do* shuffle the streaks out.... its not just ploppy talk.... you wont find a shoe where everybody wins a fortune with a CSM... you wont find one that kills everybody either... because there are no shoes... just individual hands... like a slot machine on a table.

Also some exciting things tend to happen only in extreme counts.... everybody taking five or six cards and not busting (only to have the dealer take six of them to make 21, unfortunately)... everybody pulling blackjacks...

All of these things that make the game fun for ploppies are missing in the machine dealt games or virtually non-existant since you are always very close to a neutral count.

Add to the fact that the shuffles *are* preferential (and you have to be a card counter to know it), I don't think that any reputable authority on blackjack shoudl give any advice other than to "see the machine and run" and I hope the authors out there who read this board will reevaluate their positions.

And just one more item for all you counters trying to beat these machines. I can't get anybody to help me on this, but I'll post it again.

I keep hearing of 25-50 card "mechanical" limits on the machines... they can't return a card to play for this many cards, so you can keep a rolling count... the number is 11...yes, 11 cards and the newest models can have a card back in play.... that doesn't mean you cant play with a rolling count... because the machine would only return one to play this quickly on very rare occasion... but 11 is the number!

Meanwhile if anybody is really interested in working out winning strategies agains these manifestations, I'm always willing to be involved.

I continue to hold the theory that there is no way to make a machine thats not unbeatable without a "full" shuffle after each round... mixing discards randomly into the shoe is nto a "full" shuffle and will always be exploitable by a sharp player, so all casinos are doing with the machines are

(a) increasing costs
(b) decreasing the amount of fun for the players
(c) shutting out the "bad" counters (the ones that are unknowingly playing negative expecttion games)
(d) eliminating all of the free advertising for the game that counting brings.

Ed

> While doing a walk-through of S.E. I saw two
> friends, a male and female, that play
> together playing at a CSM table and I said
> "hi" and went on my way.

> I ran into them at the grocery store last
> night and asked if they had won any money,
> this was the womens response, "no, we
> both lost, I can't believe those
> contraptions they have on all the tables,
> you can't even cut the cards and the game
> never ends, you can never get a good run
> going because the game starts over each
> time. I can't get a feel for the cards, I
> hate it, they don't even do that in Vegas. I
> won't play there anymore, it was
> crazy".

> I understand that some BJ authorities have
> stated that a CSM really should be of no
> concern to a ploppy, and I can understand
> that reasoning to a point. However many
> ploppys I know who put in a decent amount of
> time at the tables WILL watch the cards as
> they come out, not count but watch, and as
> they see a lot of small cards they will
> raise their bets, or do the opposite if a
> lot of big cards come out. They will also
> not double at times if there were a lot a
> big cards that just came out and the dealer
> is strong. So while they do not count or
> play a true advantage game, they still place
> considerable value on seeing the run of the
> cards as they are played out. They also
> value cutting the deck.

> I actually see a profit loss for the *all
> CSM casino* as even the ploppy will soon
> resist playing them. I also have never
> spoken to a dealer that enjoys working a
> table with a CSM.

> Ouchez.

[Viktor Nacht]

You've covered a lot of details that I'm not able to delve into right now, and obviously this is something you've really looked into. I simply want as many people as possible to believe these machines are bad, bad, bad, and have shared a common argument I hear shared with ploppies.

Good Cards,

V