Electric Kid: Sim Results for Ouchez's "Predator System"

[Electric Kid]

I decided to sim Ouchez's "Predator System" using Blackjack 6-7-8. Here are the assumptions I made. Sim #1: Rules S17, D10&11, No DAS, Split to 4 Hands, Late Surrender, Pen 85%, Play Basic Strategy, and Bet with the Count. The betting ramp was as follows. At all negative counts only one hand is played at $5 min bet at true count => 0 two hands is played with the following betting scheme TC=0$10, TC=1$10, TC=2$30, TC=3$60, TC=4$80, TC=>5$100. Thus a 1 to 20 spread for a DD game.

Sim #2" For the "Predator System" I made the following changes. Pen changed to 90% to represent the additional cards you get to see, and all 12 to 16 player hands changed to "stand". Surrender only allowed against 10. Everything else remained the same including the betting ramp.

Sim results for 100,000,000 hands:
Sim #1 Win rate 1.88% Total gain $92,281,430.
Sim #2 Win rate .25% Total gain $13,068,370.
You will win 7 times as much money playing with the proper basic strategy even though you don't get to see as many cards.

Interesting note is that the one hand in the "Predator System" that "plays all" is actually playing at a negative .10% win rate. It isn't until the second hand is included that the game has a slightly postive win rate.

[Parker]

. . . "I told you so," but I just can't seem to control myself. :-)

Thanks, Kid, for taking the time to run the sim.

[Ouchez]

> I decided to sim Ouchez's "Predator
> System" using Blackjack 6-7-8. Here are
> the assumptions I made. Sim #1: Rules S17,
> D10&11, No DAS, Split to 4 Hands, Late
> Surrender, Pen 85%, Play Basic Strategy, and
> Bet with the Count. The betting ramp was as
> follows. At all negative counts only one
> hand is played at $5 min bet at true count
> => 0 two hands is played with the
> following betting scheme TC=0$10, TC=1$10,
> TC=2$30, TC=3$60, TC=4$80, TC=>5$100.
> Thus a 1 to 20 spread for a DD game.

> Sim #2" For the "Predator
> System" I made the following changes.
> Pen changed to 90% to represent the
> additional cards you get to see, and all 12
> to 16 player hands changed to
> "stand". Surrender only allowed
> against 10. Everything else remained the
> same including the betting ramp.

> Sim results for 100,000,000 hands:
> Sim #1 Win rate 1.88% Total gain
> $92,281,430.
> Sim #2 Win rate .25% Total gain $13,068,370.
> You will win 7 times as much money playing
> with the proper basic strategy even though
> you don't get to see as many cards.

> Interesting note is that the one hand in the
> "Predator System" that "plays
> all" is actually playing at a negative
> .10% win rate. It isn't until the second
> hand is included that the game has a
> slightly postive win rate.

were positive. That is why BJ is such a good game to play.

Thanks again for the sim. That will call for a 16 oz, Filet, baked potatoe, sauteed mushrooms and onions, and a large, creamy, malted of your choice.

[RP]

> Sim #2" For the "Predator
> System" I made the following changes.
> Pen changed to 90% to represent the
> additional cards you get to see, and all 12
> to 16 player hands changed to
> "stand". Surrender only allowed
> against 10. Everything else remained the
> same including the betting ramp.

If you ran the sim with all 12 to 16 player hands as 'stand', that wouldn't be the same as Ouchez's "Predator System," which calls for standing on all 12 to 16 hands in negative counts only, not all the time. Under the "Predator System," in zero and positive counts, one would be hitting 12 to 16 hands against 7 to Ace upcards (as well as 12 vs. 2/3) most of the time, only standing when dictated by the count. Thus, the "Predator System" would have a higher win rate than the .25% you got with sim #2; of course, I think the actual win rate would still be lower than that from sim #1. I also have Blackjack 6-7-8, and, as far as I know, there is no way to properly sim the "Predator System" with it.

[Electric Kid]

> If you ran the sim with all 12 to 16 player
> hands as 'stand', that wouldn't be the same
> as Ouchez's "Predator System,"
> which calls for standing on all 12 to 16
> hands in negative counts only, not all the
> time. Under the "Predator System,"
> in zero and positive counts, one would be
> hitting 12 to 16 hands against 7 to Ace
> upcards (as well as 12 vs. 2/3) most of the
> time, only standing when dictated by the
> count. Thus, the "Predator System"
> would have a higher win rate than the .25%

> you got with sim #2; of course, I think the
> actual win rate would still be lower than
> that from sim #1. I also have Blackjack
> 6-7-8, and, as far as I know, there is no
> way to properly sim the "Predator
> System" with it.

on this. He says "you NEVER hit when you can bust because it is imperitive that you get to see that hole card!" I thought he meant this for all hands, but then he also says "As soon as it goes positive you are back to two spots and playing the hi-lo advantage game with all that power afforded you" I guess Ouchez will have to clarify his rules. One thing is certain if the count is positive you are going to be more likely to bust when you hit than when its negative, but since he's playing two hands there is more of a chance that at least one won't be a stiff. I agree this would be difficult to sim but not impossible. You would have to do two separate sims and then combine the results.

[RP]

We'll have to wait to see what Ouchez says to be sure, but I'm almost certain that he advocates using the 'no bust' strategy only when the count is negative. Below is the full text of his description of the "Predator System."

> On the first round of the slipper you play 2
> spots and play according to basic strategy.

> After the first round if things are neutral
> or plus you remain at 2 spots and play
> according to hi-lo and indices.

> When the count drops below neutral you move
> to one spot, this is when it gets
> interesting.

> You now have min. bet, $5.00, you NEVER hit
> when you can bust because it is imperitive
> that you get to see that hole card! You also
> never surrender unless the dealer is showing
> a ten up and has to look to see if he has a
> BJ!

> As soon as it goes positive you are back to
> two spots and playing the hi-lo advantage
> game with all that power afforded you. You
> should also be using an ace side count to
> really boost the H.P.!

[Ouchez]

> We'll have to wait to see what Ouchez says
> to be sure, but I'm almost certain that he
> advocates using the 'no bust' strategy only
> when the count is negative. Below is the
> full text of his description of the
> "Predator System."

play at a casino where the bj sucks.

I did bad at poker but won big with my patented DC game.

You are right about what you wrote above except I believe I also stated that you split and double when called for and play those the normal way.

I know this is a hard tactic to sim. Kid did a nice job trying and I was surprised that both showed a positive game.

[RP]

> You are right about what you wrote above
> except I believe I also stated that you
> split and double when called for and play
> those the normal way.

So then, you did advocate standing on all 12 to 16 hands (except for pairs that should be split and soft hands that should be hit or doubled) in negative counts only. I can't figure out a way to sim that with BJ 6-7-8, but Kid mentioned that he had an idea of how to do it. I would be quite interested in seeing the result. I'm sure it would be quite a bit higher than the .25% he got as a result of simming it with the use of your 'no bust' strategy in all counts instead of negative counts only; I'm assuming that he did the pairs and soft hands properly, though.

P.S. I'm glad to hear that you won big on craps. :>)

[Brick]

I now feel you simply made up this system for academic reasons and simply want us to do the work for you to provide information about a casino that hides the hole card. It's not surprising to find many ploppies suspicious of such a futile act by this casino which leads them to a "gut feeling" this casino cheats. Hopefully a new casino will sprout up in the area and offer more friendly games to the disgruntled ploppies who all feel they were victims of concealed counter measures at the former casino.

"You are right about what you wrote above
except I believe I also stated that you
split and double when called for and play
those the normal way. "

This is the system you claim to use,yet you dont know what you stated or how you use it?

" I know this is a hard tactic to sim. Kid did
a nice job trying and I was surprised that
both showed a positive game."

Here is something that surprises me as well.
You say you're surprised that both show a positive game?

Of course sim #1 shows a plus game. But you're also surprise that your system #2 shows a slight advantage as well. I guess you thought the predator thing was a loser the whole time you touted it. Furthermore you did not even realize his sims are not the same system you claim to use.
Just academic gossip and strategies that dont make sense.

I should have listened to Parker

[Ouchez]

> So then, you did advocate standing on all 12
> to 16 hands (except for pairs that should be
> split and soft hands that should be hit or
> doubled) in negative counts only. I can't
> figure out a way to sim that with BJ 6-7-8,
> but Kid mentioned that he had an idea of how
> to do it. I would be quite interested in
> seeing the result. I'm sure it would be
> quite a bit higher than the .25% he got as a
> result of simming it with the use of your
> 'no bust' strategy in all counts instead of
> negative counts only; I'm assuming that he
> did the pairs and soft hands properly,
> though.

> P.S. I'm glad to hear that you won big on
> craps. :>)
STORY!
This casino is famous for it's poker and they get some real sharp players and they really kick my ass. I am just a newbie and last night a guy made a move on me that in hindsight even though I knew he had a better hand if I had raised him I believe he would have folded and I would have won a very large pot.

He checked on the last round with 3 7's up and I had a pair of kings and queens, with alot of high cards showing in front of me, by me not raising and checking told him that I did not have him beat, if I had raised he would have thought I had 3 of a kind high or better and I believe he would have folded. It is hard for a notorius BJ player such as myself to lose in such a way, but I guess I have a lot to learn and being the "Supreme Competitor"
I must learn in poker that I must drink the other players blood and feast upon their broken carcases, as I do in BJ, playing against the house.

I do have some fun with some of the other players, when I beat them out of a big pot I like to look them in the eye and thank them for the money, I can see for many of them it really pisses them off and they are at a loss for words, just mumble to themselves.

Poker can get personal at times, some guys are really intense. I think there is a personality type, wealthy business men or company executives, power people, or the like, that just hate to lose. Those are the types I like to rub it into.

Of course I also have share those traits of the people above but I don't give a damn about losing some. It's all about having fun and screwing with the other players minds. I love to play the player and pimp the pimp! But then, at times, I am the player and the pimp!!!

[Ouchez]

> I now feel you simply made up this system
> for academic reasons and simply want us to
> do the work for you to provide information
> about a casino that hides the hole card.
> It's not surprising to find many ploppies
> suspicious of such a futile act by this
> casino which leads them to a "gut
> feeling" this casino cheats. Hopefully
> a new casino will sprout up in the area and
> offer more friendly games to the disgruntled
> ploppies who all feel they were victims of
> concealed counter measures at the former
> casino.

> "You are right about what you wrote
> above
> except I believe I also stated that you
> split and double when called for and play
> those the normal way. "

> This is the system you claim to use,yet you
> dont know what you stated or how you use it?

> " I know this is a hard tactic to sim.
> Kid did
> a nice job trying and I was surprised that
> both showed a positive game."

> Here is something that surprises me as well.
> You say you're surprised that both show a
> positive game?

> Of course sim #1 shows a plus game. But
> you're also surprise that your system #2
> shows a slight advantage as well. I guess
> you thought the predator thing was a loser
> the whole time you touted it. Furthermore
> you did not even realize his sims are not
> the same system you claim to use.
> Just academic gossip and strategies that
> dont make sense.

> I should have listened to Parker

This casino does not cheat. They are a fine establishment. They offer as fine a game as you can find in the U.S.

I do not live by sims, sorry, hang me by the nearest tree. I live by real world play and how I can manipulate the game. Not that I don't pay attention to sims, they are not the controlling factor in my game, but I will consider them in light of the big picture.

Yes, I DO play this way heads up, and I believe I mentioned about the splitting and doubling and playing those the normal way in a post. I will soon be in action again, fully engaged in deadly warfare on the BJ DD felt, and will share the results with all my friends here.

If you go back and read the posts I never asked for a sim but Kid was willing to attempt one and more power to him. That being the case I felt it would have been unkind of me to point out any errors in the playing style he may have made in the inputting of information. I guess I feel no compelling need to be critical of others in such matters. Especially such a kind young man as the Kid. Call it a fault of mine if you like.

No one else has to play the "Predator System" and I am not asking them to, as it should only be undertaken by a highly skilled veteran. But for me, I will put my money where my mouth is and use this system with great confidence to play the game I described with the rules and conditions as noted.

Brick, you seem offended and angry, I wish that were not so. I was hoping that we would be friends.

As far as both sims showing a positive game, I guess that for those who follow the "Yellow Sim Road", that means.........well, GOLLY GEEEEeeeee.

I will continue to search for novel ways to get over on the casino and will not be stingy in sharing my findings with the men and women of the great Midwest Page. I will leave it to them to decide the value of my ideas. (Except for some craps tactics that are so powerfull that they must kept hidden from all but a chosen few).

[Sun Runner]

> If you go back and read the posts I never
> asked for a sim but Kid was willing to
> attempt one and more power to him. That
> being the case I felt it would have been
> unkind of me to point out any errors in the
> playing style he may have made in the
> inputting of information. I guess I feel no
> compelling need to be critical of others in
> such matters. Especially such a kind young
> man as the Kid. Call it a fault of mine if
> you like.

Ouchez -enjoy reading your posts and respect the effort of anyone looking for new and valuable truth.

But I must say, many times, I find you disingenous and condescending as evidenced by the paragraph above.

Pointing out the errors the Kid made in trying to translate your narrative to a sim would not have been unkind; in fact it would have been helpful. I find this statement to be very disingenous.

Your feeling ".. no compelling need to be critical .. of such a kind young man .." is condescending.

Most are all adults here. Most everybody seems to have a thick enough skin.

You seem, at least to me, to have some worthwhile BJ knowledge to share.

It would be helpul to me if you would step up, explain yourself clearly, make the point, then enter into the discussion that follows .. seriously.

Thanks for allowing me to share my opinion.

SR -aka Ike Clanton

[Ouchez]

> Ouchez -enjoy reading your posts and respect
> the effort of anyone looking for new and
> valuable truth.

> But I must say, many times, I find you
> disingenous and condescending as evidenced
> by the paragraph above.

> Pointing out the errors the Kid made in
> trying to translate your narrative to a sim
> would not have been unkind; in fact it would
> have been helpful. I find this statement to
> be very disingenous.

> Your feeling ".. no compelling need to
> be critical .. of such a kind young man
> .." is condescending.

> Most are all adults here. Most everybody
> seems to have a thick enough skin.

> You seem, at least to me, to have some
> worthwhile BJ knowledge to share.

> It would be helpul to me if you would step
> up, explain yourself clearly, make the
> point, then enter into the discussion that
> follows .. seriously.

> Thanks for allowing me to share my opinion.

> SR -aka Ike Clanton

Always a pleasure.