MV1256: fact or imagination

[MV1256]

WHEN WINNING WHILE COUNTING YOU WIN RIGHT AWAY{WITHIN THE FIRST $50 AT A 1-4 RED TABLE}WHEN LOOSING IT DOSN'T MATTER {$80 FOR ME} HOW LONG I STAY IT DOSN'T TURN BETTER {$230 ONE TIME FOR ME}SO I'M WONDERING IF THIS WOULD BE A CORRECT STATEMENT TO MAKE TO ALL COUNTERS. I'V BEEN DOING WELL PLAYING THIS AWSOME GAME. GOOD LUCK&HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!!!!!

[Parker]

. . . to the key on the left side of your keyboard labeled "CapsLock" or something similar. Please press it once.

Posting in all caps is the online equivalent of SHOUTING and is considered rude. It is also difficult to read, and labels one as an Internet "newbie."

In answer to your question, wild swings are part of card counting. Some of my biggest wins have followed initial large losses. There is no pattern of wins/losses.

In the long run, you will win your EV, minus whatever you lose due to errors.

There is no reason to leave a good game simply because you are losing. Doing so simply wastes playing time, meaning that it will take you even longer to get into the "long run."

[Shadow]

You may remember the discussions we had about one year ago!

I can imagine how hard it is for a newbie to realize the facts. Leaving a game after winning or after a rout loss may be right on the psychological side but nobody can tell if the next session will be better or worse or if the session I left would have offered me more winnings.

So stop-/loss can help you to keep a good attitude but they aren't a way of money managment and they hurt in the long run.

Thanks Parker for telling me again and again! :-)

Shadow

[Milk Man]

> You may remember the discussions we had
> about one year ago!

> I can imagine how hard it is for a newbie to
> realize the facts. Leaving a game after
> winning or after a rout loss may be right on
> the psychological side but nobody can tell
> if the next session will be better or worse
> or if the session I left would have offered
> me more winnings.

> So stop-/loss can help you to keep a good
> attitude but they aren't a way of money
> managment and they hurt in the long run.

> Thanks Parker for telling me again and
> again! :-)

> Shadow

You are always in the "long run" when gambling. If you truly want to manage your sanity and the game let me tell you what I do. In Blackjack Attack Don S. indicated that expectation/hours is one measure that a player may use to project winnings. He indicated if 100 hands were played at 1% advantage after a 100 hands 1 unit would be the expectation. The goal then was to get as many hands in per session. He then explained what a person could expect to be the variation over 100 hands which is the square root of the number of hands play which is +/- 10 units. He indicated that this number represented one standard deviation of being up 10 or down 10 units after 100 hands. He indicated this would happen 60% of the time. But if you multiplied by 3 it would give variance to 97% level of variation. Which means a person after 100 hands has a 97% chance of being up or down 30 units after 100 hands.
I use this information when I play. Rather than playing the expectation of 1 unit I set goals based on the variance. I take the sum of the 97% level and the 60% level and divide by 2 to get +/- 20 units. I account for the expectation by using -19 units for my bad day stop loss. I account for the expectation by adding 1 unit to my stop win of +21 units. Then I play the variance over the 100 hands If I win between 11 and 21 units at any given time I begin to determine wheather or not I should quit since I am ahead of expectation. If I am down 9 to 19 units I determine if I should quit. If my stop loss or win stop goal is met I quit. This makes the wins and losses more psychologically managable. My sessions are short enough where I can count with accuracy and not feel like mush when it is all over. I also find gambling to be much less an emotional experience. I am of the belief that emotions can change a player's behavior but the odds do not give a damn how you feel. Trust me I have been attacked by the devaition dog many times and still have lived to tell about it.