Adam Johns: Optimal Departure True Count Question

[Adam Johns]

Hi Don,

On page 361 of BJA 3rd Edition Softcover, you list table 13.2 which is a 5/6, S17, DAS, LS game. The purpose is to show the optimal departure true count for the rabbit, wiwo, and perfect players. The data seems to indicate that with a shoe depth of 0.5, the optimal departure true count is -0.13 for all players. So this would mean if the running count is -1 at 0.5 deck depth the players should leave? Am I interpreting the data wrong? It seems like that is a harshly low count to leave so early into a shoe that could turn around so quickly.

[Don Schlesinger]

> Hi Don,

> On page 361 of BJA 3rd Edition Softcover, you list
> table 13.2 which is a 5/6, S17, DAS, LS game. The
> purpose is to show the optimal departure true count
> for the rabbit, wiwo, and perfect players. The data
> seems to indicate that with a shoe depth of 0.5, the
> optimal departure true count is -0.13 for all players.
> So this would mean if the running count is -1 at 0.5
> deck depth the players should leave? Am I interpreting
> the data wrong? It seems like that is a harshly low
> count to leave so early into a shoe that could turn
> around so quickly.

No, you're reading it correctly. And, it's one of the more surprising findings of the study. There are many practical reasons for sticking around a little longer, as you really can't keep jumping around like a lunatic, but, from a purely mathematical point of view, it's better to leave and start over than to accept the fact that you've lost a half deck and have no positive count to show for it.

Don

[G Man]

> There are many
> practical reasons for sticking around a little longer,
> as you really can't keep jumping around like a
> lunatic, but, from a purely mathematical point of
> view, it's better to leave and start over than to
> accept the fact that you've lost a half deck and have
> no positive count to show for it.

Like Don mentions, in the real world you would probably use Table 13.4 that incorporates a delay of 6 rounds between shoes. Then you would have -0.9 and -1.03 TCs. A more down to earth approach.