aria_hmmm: does the particular count system really matter ?

[aria_hmmm]

was thinking about this one. any input?
tons of books out there with different systems, etc.
if the assumption is correct:

the theory of advantage play when it comes to knowing how to "count" cards in bj assumes a real randomness and complete shuffle, which is harldy done in casinos nowadays;

most dealers are tired and sloppy and dont even pay

attention to what they are doing when they shuffle, and

in fact dont shuffle, they just sloppily push clumps

of cards together twice and then deal again.

All a counting system does is let you know the proportion of high to low cards remaining; it doesnt tell you where in the unused deck/s the specific cards are, or in which order they will be dealt to you.

you can even play without actually assigning numeric values to each card, just pay attention and "remember" what types of cards have been played; this will tell you what types remain. just scan the table for a second to get a general idea of what has been played; hence, what remains to be played. a 5 year old can do this.

if this is the case, does it really make a big difference what particular system you use if you actually are going to count cards (which just means you're paying attention to what you are doing---for any casino critter reading this--it's annoying that there is something inherently wrong with using your brain to do anything in life nowadays especially in a casino where it involves real money that belongs to you)?

in the real world of action, shuffles will vary by dealer and house rules (if they even hand shuffle at all). so, does the particular count system even really matter when it is all said and done?

[OldCootFromVA]

Re: randomness. The assumption is that while each individual shuffle may be less than perfectly random, the total effect of all the shuffles very closely approaches true randomness. Remember, all these systems are based on AVERAGES; so systems based on the totality of shuffles will perform very closely to the AVERAGE.

Re: WHERE the types of cards are. Again, the systems are based on averages. In the long run, this does work; but anything can happen in the short run.

Think about it: on average the casino has about a 0.4% edge against a good basic strategy player. Yes, the player can get substantially ahead in the short term, but we all know he's going to lose in the long run.

Now turn that around -- and think about what happens if the PLAYER has the 0.4% edge. Now he will win in the long run (and this requires he PLAY enough to qualify for the "long run") even though he probably will be down -- maybe even substantially down -- at some point before the law of large numbers puts him up where the math says he should be.

Your posts indicates you may not be willing to be patient enough for the required "long run." If you don't realize card counting can be a long, boring, frustrating grind; you should consider switching to poker.

[rxpert]

There are numerous evals of efficiencies of counts. Generally multilevel counts ARE more efficient ffor playing. Others are more efficient for betsizing. It all depends on what you are capable of handling flawlessly. It's better to be perfect at a less efficient count than make errors with a more complicated one.