Kwp: trip bank roll

[Kwp]

I am trying to work out what my betting level should be due to limited trip bank roll. The game is BJ but pretend the game is biased coin flip.

I can bet 1 dollar per game.
Expected return is 1 cent per game.
Table max bet is 50 dollar.
No draws, either win or lose.
The bank is 100000000000 dollars
The trip bank is 200 dollars.
The trip is 80 hours.
The bet level cannot change once it is decided.

How much should I bet?
If I bet small, then can play the full 80 hours. but profit would also be small.
If I bet big, then bigger profit, but may only get to play 10 hours.

Is there a general formula to work out optimal bet level to max profit?
What if I can adjust bet level, every 10 hours, based on current trip bank?

[Don Schlesinger]

We've actually discussed a similar problem on another board.

You will maximize you expectation by betting the max bet. The e.v. is about $380 But, you will bust out almost 100% of the time.

So, there is no "right" answer. You have to express a ROR that you will tolerate.

Don

[kwp]

really? bet table max?
hmm I am going to sim it when i get a real keyboard. table max Vs half table max.

[Don Schlesinger]

> really? bet table max?
> hmm I am going to sim it when i get a real keyboard.
> table max Vs half table max.

I am not recommending that you do that. I am simply answering your question. You always maximize e.v. by betting as much as you can. But, if you go broke 99.8% of the time, what's the sense in saying that, twice out of 1,000 times, when you don't bust out, you win all the money in the world?

No rational player would play that way. That's why I'm explaining that what you need to do is pick a ROR that you are comfortable with, and then I can tell you how much your e.v. drops off for having chosen the extra safety.

Don

[kwp]

Assuming 100 rounds per hour, for 80 hour, so 8000 rounds.

bet 50, profit is 470 dollars, chance of not bust out is 8.8%
bet 25, profit is 430, 16.5%
bet 12.5, profit if 422, 30.5%
bet 6.25, profit is 315, 52%

Did you use 80 rounds per hour? Profit is 385 if bet 50.

I am going to meditate on that. I am surprised that betting table max actually maximize the turn over. I thought conservative bet level would maximize the turn over by being able to play a LOT longer.

[kwp]

100 rounds per hour.

Bet $25 for the first 4000 rounds, then bet $50 for the last 4000 rounds. When you are not bust.

Profit is $550