aria_hmmm: standing on stiffs on high counts bad?

[aria_hmmm]

before i knew anything but basic strategy, i was doing fine. now that i know the count is high, it seems like more, much more often than not, if i stand on a stiff on a high count usually with a dealer 10 up i suppose, i lose, and the card i could have used to make a 19-21 WAS indeed the next card out, had i hit it. so, is it correct to stand on stiffs on high counts (like the other day the count was at least +7 (ko) at about 70% penetration reached, and i had a 10,3, and the dealer had a 10 up. i stood, the dealer flipped over a 3, and then THE 8! that i could have used, but i figured id bust, and decided to stay and pray! same thing happened on another 2 deck at about 60% penetration reached: i had a 10,5, dealer 10 up. i stood. dealer flipped over a 7. the next card would have been a 4 if i hit. the next card after the 4 was a 6. and the thrid base had a 15, and stood as well, so we both lost. i knew the count was high so i stood; he said he stood cause the previous hand he got about 5 or 6 low card 21, so he figured he'd bust as well. why does this keep happening to me on stiff with a count of 5 or more at decent penetration? should i just ignore the second guessing of my mind with the count, and just hit, as if i had no clue of counting, and just played basic stategy with no deviated plays? its happening much too often to be coincidence. help!!??

[Terence Kim]

> before i knew anything but basic strategy, i was doing
> fine. now that i know the count is high, it seems like
> more, much more often than not, if i stand on a stiff
> on a high count usually with a dealer 10 up i suppose,
> i lose, and the card i could have used to make a 19-21
> WAS indeed the next card out, had i hit it. so, is it
> correct to stand on stiffs on high counts (like the
> other day the count was at least +7 (ko) at about 70%
> penetration reached, and i had a 10,3, and the dealer
> had a 10 up. i stood, the dealer flipped over a 3, and
> then THE 8! that i could have used, but i figured id
> bust, and decided to stay and pray! same thing
> happened on another 2 deck at about 60% penetration
> reached: i had a 10,5, dealer 10 up. i stood. dealer
> flipped over a 7. the next card would have been a 4 if
> i hit. the next card after the 4 was a 6. and the
> thrid base had a 15, and stood as well, so we both
> lost. i knew the count was high so i stood; he said he
> stood cause the previous hand he got about 5 or 6 low
> card 21, so he figured he'd bust as well. why does
> this keep happening to me on stiff with a count of 5
> or more at decent penetration? should i just ignore
> the second guessing of my mind with the count, and
> just hit, as if i had no clue of counting, and just
> played basic stategy with no deviated plays? its
> happening much too often to be coincidence. help!!??

To preface, I'm fairly new to the world of advantage play and my response is based on the limited knowledge that short time has wrought, so bear with me if I make any blunders :P

Personally, I believe the dealer happening to make the 21 card is a stroke of fortune. Basic strategy, while a losing strategy at flat bets, is still the statistically most effective play, both in increasing wins and minimizing losses. Norm can explain much better than I.

Adding a count to that strategy, namely one with indexes which is what it seems like you are using, does not 'guarantee' that you will avoid busting by standing on 13 with a high count, but it will increase the 'probability' that such an action would be favorable in the long run. Hundreds of hands and hours later, making that choice will, statistically, be in your advantage.

[aria_hmmm]

> To preface, I'm fairly new to the world of advantage
> play and my response is based on the limited knowledge
> that short time has wrought, so bear with me if I make
> any blunders :P

> Personally, I believe the dealer happening to make the
> 21 card is a stroke of fortune. Basic strategy, while
> a losing strategy at flat bets, is still the
> statistically most effective play, both in increasing
> wins and minimizing losses. Norm can explain much
> better than I.

> Adding a count to that strategy, namely one with
> indexes which is what it seems like you are using,
> does not 'guarantee' that you will avoid busting by
> standing on 13 with a high count, but it will increase
> the 'probability' that such an action would be
> favorable in the long run. Hundreds of hands and hours
> later, making that choice will, statistically, be in
> your advantage.

hm..hundreds of hands and hours later using the same cards with the same dealer, shuffling the same way (with the same idosyncrasy in the dealers manipulation of either clumping or really "shuffling") with no other player hand interruptions, i could see this turning towards my favor in the plays, and with an unlimited bank to sit there. but, since this doesn't happen in the real world of casino play, what is the correct play in the short run when you're only sitting there for an hour or less -- like the experts suggest-- then what? seems like basic strategy and deviations ("18", etc) are based on simulations of millions and more hands, but not on playing with cards that are changed every 2 hours, with card flows that are interrupted by dealer changes, and other players coming in and out, etc... so, in the suggested short run of play, how do all these simulations which are based on "in the long run, millions of hands later", actually correspond with "in the short run"? seems like those stiffs keep killing me on high counts no matter what. so should u just hit, as if u were just sticking to BS, regardless of a count?

[Chucke]

If you are going to play a counting game, memorize basic and the deviations from basic as stated in the KO book (I assume by your post, you are using KO). Make those plays as automatically (like stepping on the brake of your car ? you don?t think about it, you just do it) as you can. Forget about hunch plays like standing on 13 vs. 10. They will cost you more then any gain you will get from counting. Sometimes the dealer will hit to 21 and sometimes you will. There?s no telling which one will happen in the short run. It?s no big revelation that BJ is a very streaky game. Sometimes you will feel like you can?t lose and other times you?ll feel like you can?t win. The big advantage to keeping the count is in the betting. Concentrate on finding good penetration (most important) and getting the money out when the count calls for it. That?s what will make you a long term winner. Get Don?s book and study up on how to bet within your bankroll.

There are many ways to improve KO. Almost all of the ways have to do with how much and when to bet. You could play basic only with no deviations and lose very little ev as long as you get the money out at the high counts.

[21forme]

Forget the short term. It doesn't matter. In the long term you will win playing the indices correctly.

On another note, based on your screen name, I would think the games you are playing offer Surrender. If that's the case, you should be surrendering, not standing on many of your stiffs against dealer tens in a high count. Don't forget that.

[Brick]

"i had a 10,3, and the dealer had a 10 up. i stood, the dealer flipped over a 3, and then THE 8!"

The above scenario is impossible! The least a dealer can have with a 10 up is 12(10,2). Flipping over a 3,8 is a bust.

You should (virtually) always hit a 10,3 with the dealer showing a 10, no matter what the count is. The only exceptions you may encounter frequently standing on, is a 15 or 16 verses 10.

[Don Schlesinger]

> "i had a 10,3, and the dealer had a 10 up. i
> stood, the dealer flipped over a 3, and then THE
> 8!"

> The above scenario is impossible! The least a dealer
> can have with a 10 up is 12(10,2). Flipping over a 3,8
> is a bust.

HUH?? What are you thinking? The dealer's upcard was a 10. Aria stood with 13, then the dealer flipped his hole card -- a 3. He hit his 13 with an 8 -- the same 8 that Aria could have had if he had hit.

What's the problem??

Don

[Brick]

I thought the 8 and 3 was the hit cards being used,hee,hee.

[mike.havens]

"You should (virtually) always hit a 10,3 with the dealer showing a 10, no matter what the count is."

Aria stood on 13 vs. Ten! There is no KO index for this play!

Aria you're right you should have hit and caught the 8 instead of the dealer. You should only surrender 13 vs. Ten with a very high count, never stand!

[mike.havens]