The EV of the hand is negative, but you've set it up to where it can be overcome. You're bet is at an amount (because of the doubling up after each win) that you're better off just to catch a double down.
Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
You are just as likely to double or get a blackjack at every level in the progression, and just as likely to lose also
. That's not true. The game is an overall negative EV, but ev can fluctuate after the hands are dealt - most double downs and nearly all blackjacks are positive EV save the dealer has blackjack too. Is that not the main thrust of card counting - forecasting favorability.