Which is why those close to retirement put more and more money in US Treasuries. Woe to those who had most of their life savings in the stock market as they were approaching retirement in 2008.
Let's play with these numbers more, shall we? If instead of numbers like $4,000 and $3,000, let's say we were talking about $4 and $3. If it were a one-time offer, you'd probably just go for winning the $4. But if it were $4,000,000 vs. $3,000,000, I too would take the $3,000,000 because that is all that I would need. I wouldn't even need to play the "long-run" game anymore.
Certainly there can come a time when percentages and odds don't matter anymore. If a big payout is all you need, and the one-time offer covers it, go for the sure thing.
Ever see Brewster's Millions? I probably would have taken the million.
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