Originally Posted by Exoter175
Ctrl-Z didn't bring it back??
Now I'm very curious about it, Exoter. Why don't you try to recreate it, so that you can prove just how wrong Tthree is. 50,000 characters? Wow!!
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Ctrl-Z didn't bring it back??
Now I'm very curious about it, Exoter. Why don't you try to recreate it, so that you can prove just how wrong Tthree is. 50,000 characters? Wow!!
.
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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I sure hope you are right about this. My comments on BAL were just based on watching every game as a fan and not any stats but of course I made sure the stats backed them up before my second post. Watching them come out passing on first down when they have always lived and died with their running game was frustrating. Then to have the other team get a lead not large enough to justify going one dimensional so early and having them do that. Frustrating. Once one dimensional Flacco is easy to stop. Against PIT they tried to pass from run formations but they still passed far to frequently to keep the D honest. On the encouraging side BAL has been very successful running of late and MIA has one of the best pass defenses in the league. That should probably help lay my fears to rest but fans do worry about the mistakes that have cost their team valuable games previously in the season. Also BAL has kind of owned this series. Despite dealing with a long series of injuries BAL has found depth were there didn't seem to be any. On the worrisome side their secondary has always been an issue and they are up against a QB that seems to be hitting his stride. MIA is a well rounded team and if they find a weakness to exploit passing, the game could get out of hand. I think we will do Okay but a fan can't help but worry.
a) Well AZ has been keeping their team together while injuries just keep mounting. It seems that they have hit their limit. KC would be a no brainer if it weren't for the fact that it looks like they are folding as well. First they lose to the only winless football team in an embarrassing effort and then in the DEN they don't even show up. Typically after such an embarrassment against OAK you expect the teams best effort in the next week. Add to that they were playing the division leaders in a game that has huge tie breaker implications for what was now their only hope to make the playoffs, the wild card. The wild card race is shaping up to be a massive tie breaker. The first step in those tie breakers is to pare it down to one team from each division. Dropping to 1-3 in the division may take the Chiefs out and have the Chargers in as they have a 2-2 division record and a game lead. KC did beat SD @ SD in their first meeting so they still control their own destiny against SD. They play a rematch against the lowly Raiders and their last game is a showdown with SD. If they win both of those games and win as many as SD leading into the last weak the Chiefs will represent the division in a tie breaker if tied with SD.
But all things point to a team that has folded. This time of year teams need to gel and the years stats become less important as a predictor. SD has a very tough schedule (NE, DEN, @ SF and @KC) so like last week when KC didn't show up they should be very motivated to bring their best game this week.
Perhaps Exoter being a fan of the Chiefs can shed some light on what is going on there. If he does would somebody quote it. I am not overriding the ignore list block I have on him in order to not be subject to his trolling. He acts like this is an argument he must win rather than a discussion. This has caused his posts to become crazy and illogical and full of spiteful comments. It seems to have become a desire to attack me rather than post actual facts and to anyone that checks the facts and stats that has become very very obvious. Anyway I am interested in his opinion on this as he is a fan and probably watches every game. Fans tend to watch every game and base their opinions on what they see every week. But some fans just can't be unbiased. I am to leery of the team KC has been the last 2 weeks especially last week when they shouldn't be expected to win but should have put up a their best effort. If that was their bet effort right now, I am not risking my money on them.
b) I am comfortable with the SEA ATS bet but the total is just to close to what I (48, 49 and 52. I use all three score predictions for O/U bets. The third being the unadjusted for home field advantage neutral field prediction) and everyone else predicts for me. If anything I would lean Over but barely. This game has so many likely was for it to play out variance is high. Both teams can score in a flurry or be shut down by the oppositions defense. I like SEA in this matchup but it is a weak play.
c) I like OAK in this one. I don't remember what made me scratch it from my pick list but something made me reconsider. SF just hasn't been covering that many points tis year and OAK has been a tough but easily beaten opponent this year until they actually won a game against KC. SF is 0-3-0 when laying 7 or more points this year. Between -3.5 and -6.5 they are 5-0-0. As a small favorite -1 to -3 they are 0-2-0. I would be very hesitant to lay a lot of points on SF. They don't seem like a team that plays to win by more than a TD.
d) DEN on the other hand has a reasonable record giving up 7 or more points. At home they are 2-3-0 and away they are 2-1-0 for an aggregate record of 4-4-0. BUF is not the best matchup for DEN but they are playing in that thin DEN air. My scores have DEN winning by 3 and 10 points. Some stats make me think that may be conservative but that is not enough for me to bet on DEN. really it suggests a bet on BUF should be looked at closer. BUF has done well in te thin air of DEN but the most recent game was 6 years ago. Not many players from those teams are still around. I would pass on this game.
I guess the end of your post is asking for TEN/JAX analysis. HOU is a weird team when the spread is considered. They cover and usually win in more extreme spreads this year but lose and fail to cover in all the games with spreads of -2.5 to +3. I had it as a play and I think I will add it again on a closer look. I was worried about giving up too many points but HOU as a track record of covering every game easily of laying 3 points or more. My scores both have HOU winning by 5. JAX has struggled at home this year despite having both their wins on home turf. The Jags tend to get blown out as a dog getting 5 or more points going 0-8-1 ATS in those games and are 3-0-0 when getting 4 or fewer points. I think a bet on HOU is a safe bet.
Last edited by Three; 12-07-2014 at 07:34 AM.
No, control Z didn't work, the only thing that would get it back is if Norm has a way to sift through the auto-saves of that individual post and go back likely about 3 auto saves, and it is there. It is massive, its' honestly probably in the neighborhood of closer to 100,000 characters and there's no way I can recreate it.
However, the "point" of the post was that T3 misuses those statistics from the "outside" to apply an assumption to them.
He sat there and said Baltimore lost those 3 games because they abandoned an effective run/early. In all actuality, their 2nd half rushing was more effective, registering fewer rushes and almost exactly the same yardage. The true reason Baltimore lost those games, was because of untimely turnovers, poor defensive play, bad clock management, and most importantly, ineffective running. In 2 of 3 of those games, if you take out the top 2 or 3 rushes from those games (where the box score suggest they are hitting 4-5 YPC) Baltimore was being held to just 2-3 YPC.
In those 3 games, the team is averaging 17 carries for 81 yards, 10/41 first half, 7/40 second half. In those 3 games, the team has an average of a 10 point deficit going into the second half. In those 3 games, Baltimore has 7 possessions inside of the two minute warning from both halves, playing from behind. (This skews the pass vs. rush statistic wildly). In those 3 games, Baltimore sees, on average, 24.3 "Passing Downs" that is, downs that "call" for a certain play based on down and distance statistics.
Example, 3rd down and 8 from your own 27. That's a passing play, you've been ineffective the first two plays and an "average" rush yields a 4th down, while an "average" completion yields a first down. There's a number of down and distances that teams will see throughout a game that dictate a pass, rather than a run. Not because the coach feels that his passing attack is "better" or his rushing attack is "worse" but because HIS judgement is affected by down and distance, on top of other insights like defensive substitutions and how the "game" is going.
There are of course exceptions to the rule. 3rd and 27 from your own 13 is as close to a 50/50 split in run vs. pass as it gets in this league, but if you move the ball up 37 yards, its about as pass heavy as a drive as there can be. There's a reason for this as well. You know you aren't about to convert that 3rd and long, you're trying to get a few more yards to give your punter a real shot at having enough space and room to be able to get off his best possible kick, hoping to keep the team inside of their own 35 from that distance. Ideally in a situation like that, the defense has a 3 man rush, the offense runs a draw play, and they pickup like 6-10 yards and punt the ball away. If the team in question is winning, its a guaranteed run, as they just try to milk the clock.
In the Cincy, Indy, and Pittsburgh games, Baltimore had a very inefficient rushing attack. They didn't suddenly get "pass happy", they were forced into countless 2nd and 8, 3rd and 7, 3rd and 10 situations where the "book" dictates you pass the ball on that down.
In total, there were 24.3 of these per game, which is already 7.3 more than their average number of rushes in these games. Now, Baltimore YTD has an average of 64 snaps per game offensively. 64. It breaks down to 33.8 passes, and 29.2 rushes, for a grand total of 64 plays.
Now, if they go into the game with the expectation to throw it 34 times, and rush it 30 times, that would sound like a really great offensive split to the mind of T3 53%/47% split is pretty good in Pass vs. Run statistics, even for Joe Flacco who is an absolute cannon at QB. The problem here, and the problem with T3's "take" on those statistics is that he doesn't break them down into a "play by play" feel like I did in that post. He looks at the stats seeing "oh god 6 passes and 2 runs, why would they do that?". Well T3, they threw the ball 6/8 plays on that drive because their 2 rushes on that drive on first down netted them no gain, or 1 yard, or 2 yards, and from there they were forced to pass the ball.
I don't have the "true" number on it off the top of my head, but in those 3 games T3 sampled and tried to "make" a statistic, Baltimore had "maybe" or 89 rushes over 4 yards, out of a total of 51 rushes. Keep in mind, their season average is something like 4.5+ YPC.
In essence, the three games he used where he breaks the drives down to pass vs. rush, his point is moot, because the rushing attack was so ineffective, that the team was forced into down and distance calls that dictate a pass. When I say that, I don't mean that there's like a 60/40 possibility of pass vs. run, I mean it like, there's a 97.3% chance they HAVE to pass the ball.
He broke down those drives to show pass vs. run, but he did NOT break those drives down to the play by play level which shows that Baltimore was ineffective with the rush which forced them to pass.
They didn't abandon an effective first half rushing attack like he claims, being held to 4 YPC and a deficit of 10 points on average at the half. They didn't get "pass happy" "just because". They passed the ball for 3 reasons. 1. They were down 2 scores on average. 2. They were ineffective with the run, and 3. They were forced into passing downs because of their rushing attempts and penalties.
That's it, that's the bottom line, and my point that I want to emphasize here for the whole forum is that T3 used those statistics without knowledge of what they actually meant, to cater to his "bias" of a 50/50 attack and what HE THINKS that means. When the reality of those statistics actually argue against him and render his points as incorrect.
You don't "own" anything.
Your misuse of statistics is detrimental to this forum, as you wield them without their knowledge giving improper information that might otherwise influence someone to make a selection based on your biased advice.
Your lack of knowledge in this game has been shown, your misuse of statistics has been shown, and your "bias" for statistics has been shown.
From this point on, you might as well use a "professional"'s information to portray as your own because I've now shown you to be fraudulent in your usage of statistics.
Sometimes the analysis does NOT hinge on one team, but more its opponent.
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MIA allowed 277 yards at NYJ, 201 yards at DEN. Forsett is 5.64 ypc, 1009 rushing yards total, 84.1 ypg. Forsett is #2 in ypc for primary RBs, behind only OAK's Murray.
If BAL does NOT understand that one weakness of MIA is "rushing defense", they need to hire new coaches.
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MIA is "Under" 6 of last 7 games, 2 of last 2 at home. BAL has a tendency to send the game "Over" (4 of last 5). They lost S/U 3 of 4 times that the game has gone "Over". If BAL coaches are good, they will stick to the run game ... which will lean the totals to "Under 45½".
As for the rest, I'll read in time for the 4 PM games.
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I don't think KC had folded, as much as had been outplayed in the last 2 games.
Their passing attack really needs work. KC still hasn't thrown a TD pass to a WR this whole season! Is it a sign of being too conservative? Bad game planning? Bad WR personnel? I don't know. I don't watch them closely.
Nah! Just some stats that got added for the HOU @ JAX game.
If you're curious enough to want to know what Exoter says, you need to remove him from your "ignore list". Otherwise, you're not really ignoring him. On the other hand, totally ignoring Exoter is basically letting him win by default, running thru the thread unopposed (just like MIA does to opposing RBs).
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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ARZ lead RB Ellington out for today's game. http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11984409/andre-ellington-arizona-cardinals-hip-injury-vs-kansas-city-chiefs
Hearing that the Cardinals is consider shutting down RB Andre Ellington for the remainder of the season, suffering from a hip pointer & foot injury.
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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As an analyst I agree but the fan in me worries about what I have seen. Most of the time they run a lot but sometimes they just start the game throwing for whatever reason. If it works great for them they have a lead to shift to the run with but in the 3 games it didn't they hardly ran the entire game on a run pass percentage basis. Like I have been saying the run production is not the issue in these games but becoming 1 dimensional is. They can't prematurely decide they must go with a pass happy attack because of the score. DAL, KC and SEA all stick with the run being a key part of a balanced attack even when way behind. These teams have repeatedly come back to win games that I believe BAL would have pretty much abandoned the run becoming 1 dimensional. It doesn't matter if the run is ineffective or effective. The fact that the defense must defend the run and not sit on the pass makes the pass more effective. Flacco is a great QB but doesn't do well when the Ravens are a 1 dimensional passing team. Hopefully the staff learned their lesson and the fact that the matchup favors running more will help if they haven't. There are passing situations and running situations. When you are forced to pass because of the game plan used earlier in the game or because you get impatient when behind with plenty of time left you making it easy for the defense. The analyst in me doubts that will be the case today but the fan in me can't help but worry.
I don't want all the flaming and trolling that has become his obsession. But I would like his take on the Chiefs only because he is a fan. His previous posts lead me to believe he can't be critical of them like I was the Ravens but you can hope. If nobody quotes him for me there is no real loss. I don't think he is capable of being unbiased. His posts seem to be driven by emotion not reason. You can't give a good analysis when that is the case. I have no doubt he has fixated on some minute part of a larger point and is arguing about that right now while missing the point that it was a small part of making. Taking the small piece totally out of context and claiming victory in a fight that only exists in his mind. That is what he has done from the beginning and I am tired of his lack of focus and desire to win an argue in his mind rather than discuss issues intelligently fouling the forum. I have done what I can by putting him on ignore and not overriding the block. Now all I see is what is quoted by others. If someone wants to let me know when he goes off crazy nut ball tilt I will take him off ignore. Until then he can disrupt the forum with 50,000 character emotional craziness but I will not be a party to such disruptions. I am sorry to everyone for not doing this sooner. It may prove to little to late. I am sure many have put either Exoter and/or me on their ignore list. We no doubt deserved it.
Last edited by Three; 12-07-2014 at 01:16 PM.
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Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
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