Why don't more people AP?

[ZenKinG]

Cause everyone wants to be rich and nobody wants to work for it.

People want easy money these days without any effort. Look at all the hype the lottery gets, it disgusts me. People constantly waste so much money playing it and don't even consider that they will never win it or even come close to winning any decent amount. They rather waste money on that than a learn a skill, for example AP.

And when you mention AP, those same people have no interest in it and completely disregard it while even criticizing you for it. Its rediculous and those same people blow money in the casinos and don't care one bit because it's all just 'entertainment'

I also agree its a personality thing and one in a way must like challenges and doing stuff outside the norm such as taking on a casino or like investments that can potentially pay off big.

For the most part it comes down to people being lazy and wanting quick riches or not believing it works or if it does too 'time consuming' (once again lazy aspect), and a passive personality when it comes to making money. Its hard to find someone with the opposite of all 3 traits.

Note : having 2 of 3 won't cut it most of the time

[houyi]

Cause everyone wants to be rich and nobody wants to work for it.

People want easy money these days without any effort. Look at all the hype the lottery gets, it disgusts me. People constantly waste so much money playing it and don't even consider that they will never win it or even come close to winning any decent amount. They rather waste money on that than a learn a skill, for example AP.

And when you mention AP, those same people have no interest in it and completely disregard it while even criticizing you for it. Its rediculous and those same people blow money in the casinos and don't care one bit because it's all just 'entertainment'

I also agree its a personality thing and one in a way must like challenges and doing stuff outside the norm such as taking on a casino or like investments that can potentially pay off big.

For the most part it comes down to people being lazy and wanting quick riches or not believing it works or if it does too 'time consuming' (once again lazy aspect), and a passive personality when it comes to making money. Its hard to find someone with the opposite of all 3 traits.

Note : having 2 of 3 won't cut it most of the time

Most of what you say seems pretty on point. I'm going to disagree on one point, which might be a controversial one for APs: I don't actually have any problem with the lottery, if played in moderation. Buying a lottery ticket (as in single at one time) allows one to derive utility from the mere hope that one's financial woes could potentially be over forever. Is it a bad deal if one actually does the calculations? In most cases, certainly yes (although there have been historical exceptions where a lottery had positive EV). But here's the thing, for the vast, vast majority of people, is winning 400 million dollars going to be any better than winning 40 million? In both cases, the average person is going to get to retire, spend money on most any luxuries he wants, etc. The mere chance of winning any actual life-changing amount gives Average Joe Smith hope, so if he wants to blow $2 a week on a longshot, I don't think it's an unfair price for him to daydream.

[ZenKinG]

Most of what you say seems pretty on point. I'm going to disagree on one point, which might be a controversial one for APs: I don't actually have any problem with the lottery, if played in moderation. Buying a lottery ticket (as in single at one time) allows one to derive utility from the mere hope that one's financial woes could potentially be over forever. Is it a bad deal if one actually does the calculations? In most cases, certainly yes (although there have been historical exceptions where a lottery had positive EV). But here's the thing, for the vast, vast majority of people, is winning 400 million dollars going to be any better than winning 40 million? In both cases, the average person is going to get to retire, spend money on most any luxuries he wants, etc. The mere chance of winning any actual life-changing amount gives Average Joe Smith hope, so if he wants to blow $2 a week on a longshot, I don't think it's an unfair price for him to daydream.

Yes, $2 a week, sure won't hurt anyone's savings and the risk to reward ratio is crazy high on the reward side compared to how much you're risking. But the whole $2 a week argument and how it's so cheap is the exact reason why everyone plays. It's only 2 bucks right? That's why $60+ billion worth of tickets are sold each year in lottery tickets, hmmm. Doesnt this remind you of something? Casinos maybe? They make their games as close to an even game as possible to trick players into playing it and thinking they have a chance to win? But, "Hey, you never know."

If you really like playing, sure the reward certainly outweighs the risk for each individual, but to me it's lost money cause you have better chances getting struck by lightning multiple times in a row, which is basically impossible but still has higher chance than hitting the lotto, even winning any decent size money for that matter. The real winner is the lotto companies, they keep 50% of all the money they take in, if you didn't know. Sure, each individual won't be affected financially because it costs so little, but at the end of the day it's lost money that you could've used for something else, because ill tell you right now you're not going to win. I'm sure you know as well that it will be a constant independent event and that the past numbers have no affect on the future, which makes the games basically impossible to hit cause you're facing the same bullshit odds every time the lotto resets. I'm also real skeptical of the people who do win. Probably bought over 2 billion tickets for that same night the numbers came out or maybe some type of inside job, rigged perhaps? Would you doubt it?

But lastly, my point i was trying to make isn't about the money to be gained or lost, but rather society has a subconscious thinking of wanting the easy way out, easy money, and the lottery certainly demonstrates that, with over 60 billion dollars wasted each year. Sad huh? And then we celebrate the people who won, but we dont celebrate the blue collar workers who bust their ass for their families to earn a living each week or the self starter entrepreneur who made it to the top through hard work, but rather as a nation we celebrate the big lotto winners and these pathetic music stars/celebrites in th news each and every day for doing nothing, but destroy the society we live in.

Future of America

[Three]

If you really like playing, sure the reward certainly outweighs the risk for each individual, but to me it's lost money cause you have better chances getting struck by lightning multiple times in a row, which is basically impossible but still has higher chance than hitting the lotto, even winning any decent size money for that matter.

Tell that to the lottery APs. A woman (professional statistician and former math professor with PHD from Stanford University) had her payment withheld for investigation after hitting the top prize for the fourth time. Once 18 years ago and 3 times in the last 5 years at $10,000,000 a pop. Why she buys tickets in Texas when she lives 1,400 miles away in Las Vegas is your guess. I think choosing to live in LV tells a lot about what she is doing with her statistical prowess.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/ar...t-4-times.html

Find the vulnerability and exploit it. I think she, like many other lottery APs, are following this AP foundational idea when they play the lottery. Thinking outside the box reaps rewards where others see nothing. Maybe she is just a lightning rod to use ZKs metaphor and gets hit dozens of times in a row. Maybe some lotteries can be beaten.

Casinos are the same way. They set up a game that has an advantage for them but careful examination of how the game is played and the dealers involved show vulnerabilities in almost every game. Your job as a patron is to use these to change the odds of the game in your favor.

[biggg]

I think there was a great piece of material on this in Kat walker's Spanish 21 book. Basically the idea is, I'm sitting here pretending to be drunk while drinking an iced tea, standing behind a table waiting for a bunch of small cards to come out so I can place a bet, so I can maybe win 50 or 100 bucks an hour but easily lose 100 times that in any one day. The people at the table are drinking, playing, and having a good time and will probably lose roughly the same amount I win. Who is the winner in this scenario?

[jaygruden]

I have thought about this topic for many years and here is my take......

I grew up in a "gambling" household and can remember from the time I was 7-8 years old that nearly every get-together, family picnics, party.....there was gambling in some capacity. I can remember vividly pitching pennies, nickels and dimes against a wall with my cousins and uncles at every summer picnic....as well as playing lawn jarts or washer boards in tournament style play with a $1-$5 buy-in........playing card games....poker, crazy eights, cad, for money around most holidays, etc. My father taught me how to play blackjack when I was around 10 years old and by the time I was 12, I could play near perfect basic strategy. I loved to gamble (as did most relatives) because I became conditioned to love gambling. I loved the excitement, the thrill, etc. My father was a "system" player in blackjack and he would always discover this new "strategy" that was a guaranteed "winning formula".

In high-school and college....I was always looking for a game....I played poker and home dice games on most weekends, etc. When I was 21 I walked into my first casino in AC and I felt I was in heaven. I had found the holy grail and for the next 15 or so years, I traveled to casinos for most vacations playing mostly BJ and craps. I played rated, was comped free rooms, free junkets, free rooms, free drinks, free cigars, gifts, prizes, play vouchers, etc. I had more fun than I could handle and felt like a real big shot. The problem was that I usually lost. however, I would only seem to remember the occasional big wins and would quickly forget the massive losses. I chalked up the losses as the "cost of entertainment" and rationalize the benefits of all the "free" stuff I got out of it.

The reason I give you this background is to simply show that I used to be one of those guys who played for the fun, the thrill, the rush, the excitement. I played hunches and systems and used anecdotal information to make decisions about how to play. I didn't want to work too hard because I knew BS for BJ and played the best odds in craps and I figured that coupled with my betting strategy would give me the edge over the house. The losses mounted however, and it didn't seem so fun anymore. I quit going to casinos for a few years realizing that I couldn't win.

Now the good part......I'm a big believer that it is only through education that we can lift ourselves out of our own self-imposed limitations. It had worked in my career and personal life so I decided to apply it to "gambling". I picked up a book about counting cards and read it. I then read another and another. That led me to on-line resources about CC and other AP information. I picked a simple count, learned it, practiced it then applied it in the real world. It worked just as the math said it would. Only through education did I realize that all the myths I came to believe were dead wrong. The math was undeniable and I came to realize how foolish I was to have ever been a gambler. I have not "gambled" on anything since my epiphany. I only play games where I have an advantage.

It is no longer "fun" for me to go to casinos. It is hard work. I play unrated so there are no more free junkets, hotels or meals. I don't drink or smoke cigars at the table. I am there for one reason and one reason only....to play with an advantage and take money from the casino. To be honest, I can only take so much of being in a casino anymore. It's very depressing watching people throw money away that most can't afford to lose. I now see "degenerate" gamblers all over the place. Many have lost more than money....lost jobs, lost marriages, lost relationships with their children, lost careers, etc. I never noticed these people before becoming an AP but now I can spot them fairly quickly. Not to mention the chain smoking and excessive intoxication that goes along with the gambling. Personally, I think that the vast proliferation of casinos popping up all over this country is not a good thing for our society. I think casinos lead to a gradual degeneration of values and the social costs far outweigh any benefits to a state tax base. As an AP, I take advantage of them popping up and try to take as much as I can from them. It's a little bit personal for me because the casinos don't care about the people who just lost their mortgage payment but they don't want anyone coming in who uses their brain to play a game the right way. They only want idiots to come in to throw their money away.

I still have "gambler" friends and family who I have tried to educate on advantage play and most don't want to believe or even really listen to it. I have even bought them books as birthday/Christmas gifts so they could have their own epiphany rather than take my word for it. Most don't buy into it because they can't or are not willing to overcome their own self-limiting beliefs or they don't want to start working and stop "having fun". I have turned a few into believers and I think it's because they are wired more my like me....they value education and know that they don't know it all.

My sales pitch of logic on those that have left the "dark side" to come into the light and start using the "force" has been this simple concept:

There are three kinds of players in all casino games:
1. People who don't even follow basic strategy for the game
2. People who follow only basic strategy for the game
3. People who follow only advanced strategy for the game

Example: When I was a BJ "gambler" I followed BS to perfection and I looked at people who didn't follow BS as foolish.....now that I follow advanced strategy, I look at people who only follow basic strategy as foolish. Why would someone take the time to learn basic strategy but not take the time to learn advanced strategy? It's really not that much harder.

If I can get them to bite on this logic then their brain at least opens up to the possibilities.

Sorry for the rather long editorial opinion piece but these are my 2 cents :-)

[ZenKinG]

Tell that to the lottery APs. A woman (professional statistician and former math professor with PHD from Stanford University) had her payment withheld for investigation after hitting the top prize for the fourth time. Once 18 years ago and 3 times in the last 5 years at $10,000,000 a pop. Why she buys tickets in Texas when she lives 1,400 miles away in Las Vegas is your guess. I think choosing to live in LV tells a lot about what she is doing with her statistical prowess.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/ar...t-4-times.html

Find the vulnerability and exploit it. I think she, like many other lottery APs, are following this AP foundational idea when they play the lottery. Thinking outside the box reaps rewards where others see nothing. Maybe she is just a lightning rod to use ZKs metaphor and gets hit dozens of times in a row. Maybe some lotteries can be beaten.

Casinos are the same way. They set up a game that has an advantage for them but careful examination of how the game is played and the dealers involved show vulnerabilities in almost every game. Your job as a patron is to use these to change the odds of the game in your favor.

Well I'm talking about the main lottery where you win hundreds of millions. Not the other types of lottery games

[Mr Pappagiorgio]

I was at a bar at a casino in the Midwest and I met another AP. we discussed the same subject and the old guy looked at me and said the answer is because card counting is a grind. The average person just does not have time.

[Mr Pappagiorgio]

I try to teach my close friends even if you don't want to use a count just go with Tight Basic strategy and simple plus count wagering. you Kina have to be obsessed with this to get good at it it can't be a passing interest.

[Jabberwocky]

It's because of the monster losing streaks. Hit one that lasts two years then see if you still feel like playing.

[muckz]

It's because of the monster losing streaks. Hit one that lasts two years then see if you still feel like playing.

Two year losing streak? I don't think that guys playing with an advantage.

[stopgambling]

2 years that totaled to 400 hours? Even after a 1000 hours one can still be down. I had a 400+ hours losing streak ,the SCORE of the game was 35 ish. Sucks , i want a higher SCORE , something like 50+ or maybe HC , ST combine

[Jabberwocky]

2 years that totaled to 400 hours? Even after a 1000 hours one can still be down. I had a 400+ hours losing streak ,the SCORE of the game was 35 ish. Sucks , i want a higher SCORE , something like 50+ or maybe HC , ST combine

It happened to one of the best full-time players in North America.


"With a 2% advantage, you have a 20% chance of being minus after 2500 hands." - Ken Uston

I don't know the percentages after 200,000 hands. Anyone venture an estimate?