Okay, ran a quick 250M hand sim to get numbers. I think I understand better now what is going on.

I got a win rate of $153.14/hour. The Std Dev is reported as 24.40 per hour but that is in UNITS, not $. Since the win rate is based upon a $100 unit, the Std dev must be multiplied by $100 to equal $2440. {Alternatively, the win rate could be reduced to 1.5314 units per hour, achieving the same result.}

Now, given that data, placed into the "actual results" calculator, it gives the possibility of this outcome to be 16.78% or worse. Or about a 1 in 6 chance? In other words, pretty likely.

Am I on the right track here? Using basic statistics then, my expected range of results for this 6 hours of play would be from losing about $6,400 to winning $8,240. That was figured with an expected win rate of $153.14 x 6 hours = $918.84. The $2440 Std dev x 3 (to cover the most likely results) = $7,320. So $920-$7,320 = -$6,400 and $920 + $7,320 = $8,240.

By the way, the N0 was 25,381. That figures to be 16 hours of play per trip for 16 trips. Even for a modest player, that seems like the "long run" could be achieved in just a few years (4 or 5)!