Question about true count and chance of a dealer bust.

**Norm** · 05-20-2024, 08:09 AM

Ah, that would likely make it easier than when Dog Hand ran his CVData sims as CVData now includes the EZ Bust side bet, as well as the Bust, Bust Bonus, Bet the Bust, Buster Blackjack, and Buster Blackjack player BJ side bets.

**DSchles** · 05-20-2024, 09:09 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

P.S. Don, bookmark the link ;-)

Done! And it's about time!

Don

**Northbend** · 05-20-2024, 11:42 AM

Originally Posted by iCountNTrack

Why would you look at at one parameter to make a decision. And what does the dealer bust rate have to do with anything. Unless there is a specific side-bet for dealer busting. That figure should be totally ignored. Use your true count to bet and the indices to make your playing decision

This is about a side bet and promotion. I should have said that from the start.

**Northbend** · 05-20-2024, 11:47 AM

Thanks everyone! And yes, Doghand, that's exactly the info I was looking for. And yes, Freightman, good analogy about the insurance side bet and the payout consideration. This has been helpful.

**k_c** · 05-20-2024, 01:54 PM

I revised my CA so that it computes EVs and probabilities based upon a counting system. Below is data for 6 decks mid-shoe for HiLo running counts of +25, +30, +35, +40. I crammed in as much as I reasonably could. Hope I didn't make any errors transposing data from my program to this post. In order to display S17 and H17 values side by side I Had to copy H17 values line by line. For up cards of A,2,3,4,5,6 H17 values differ from S17. For up cards of 7,8,9,T they are the same.

*****
Unconditional dealer probabilities (dealer blackjack is included)
Conditional probabilities where dealer BJ is eliminated can easily be computed from unconditional values.
For up cards of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 there is no possibility of dealer BJ.

6 decks, S17 & H17
Mid-shoe prior to up card being dealt
RC means running count (HiLo in this case)

RC = +25

Code:

Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer stands on soft 17....                    Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer hits soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} S17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS                Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} H17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}                              Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Subgroup removals: None                                                        Subgroup removals: None
Running count (before up card is dealt): 25   Cards remaining: 156             Running count (before up card is dealt): 25   Cards remaining: 156

Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST                 Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST
   1     0.1025  0.1159  0.1178  0.1202  0.0444  0.3742  0.1251                   1     0.0508  0.1255  0.1253  0.1278  0.0520  0.3742  0.1444
   2     0.1212  0.1145  0.1239  0.1227  0.1200  0.0000  0.3976                   2     0.1129  0.1161  0.1250  0.1239  0.1212  0.0000  0.4008
   3     0.1152  0.1115  0.1090  0.1183  0.1173  0.0000  0.4287                   3     0.1082  0.1129  0.1100  0.1192  0.1183  0.0000  0.4314
   4     0.1130  0.1028  0.1051  0.1038  0.1128  0.0000  0.4625                   4     0.1058  0.1041  0.1061  0.1049  0.1138  0.0000  0.4653
   5     0.1073  0.1039  0.1014  0.0963  0.0972  0.0000  0.4939                   5     0.1024  0.1047  0.1021  0.0971  0.0980  0.0000  0.4958
   6     0.1754  0.0873  0.0897  0.0871  0.0858  0.0000  0.4747                   6     0.1196  0.0978  0.0978  0.0953  0.0941  0.0000  0.4953
   7     0.4195  0.1366  0.0621  0.0648  0.0621  0.0000  0.2549                   7     0.4195  0.1366  0.0621  0.0648  0.0621  0.0000  0.2549
   8     0.1155  0.4092  0.1302  0.0557  0.0584  0.0000  0.2309                   8     0.1155  0.4092  0.1302  0.0557  0.0584  0.0000  0.2309
   9     0.1084  0.1000  0.4040  0.1245  0.0501  0.0000  0.2129                   9     0.1084  0.1000  0.4040  0.1245  0.0501  0.0000  0.2129
  10     0.1018  0.0988  0.1003  0.3913  0.0251  0.0935  0.1891                  10     0.1018  0.0988  0.1003  0.3913  0.0251  0.0935  0.1891

Overall  0.1354  0.1289  0.1263  0.2077  0.0591  0.0696  0.2731                Overall  0.1255  0.1307  0.1277  0.2091  0.0605  0.0696  0.2768

Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit     Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit

RC = +30

Code:

Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer stands on soft 17....                    Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer hits soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} S17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS                Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} H17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}                              Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Running count (before up card is dealt): 30   Cards remaining: 156             Running count (before up card is dealt): 30   Cards remaining: 156
Subgroup removals: None                                                        Subgroup removals: None

Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST                 Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST
   1     0.0971  0.1131  0.1155  0.1182  0.0427  0.3871  0.1263                   1     0.0492  0.1223  0.1222  0.1250  0.0496  0.3871  0.1445
   2     0.1171  0.1104  0.1227  0.1226  0.1204  0.0000  0.4068                   2     0.1092  0.1119  0.1237  0.1238  0.1215  0.0000  0.4099
   3     0.1111  0.1074  0.1054  0.1177  0.1179  0.0000  0.4405                   3     0.1044  0.1087  0.1064  0.1186  0.1189  0.0000  0.4431
   4     0.1092  0.0986  0.1015  0.1009  0.1129  0.0000  0.4770                   4     0.1021  0.0999  0.1024  0.1019  0.1138  0.0000  0.4798
   5     0.1045  0.0998  0.0978  0.0931  0.0946  0.0000  0.5102                   5     0.0993  0.1008  0.0985  0.0938  0.0954  0.0000  0.5122
   6     0.1779  0.0834  0.0860  0.0839  0.0831  0.0000  0.4856                   6     0.1213  0.0944  0.0940  0.0920  0.0913  0.0000  0.5071
   7     0.4298  0.1366  0.0590  0.0619  0.0596  0.0000  0.2531                   7     0.4298  0.1366  0.0590  0.0619  0.0596  0.0000  0.2531
   8     0.1131  0.4194  0.1307  0.0531  0.0560  0.0000  0.2277                   8     0.1131  0.4194  0.1307  0.0531  0.0560  0.0000  0.2277
   9     0.1063  0.0975  0.4145  0.1255  0.0479  0.0000  0.2083                   9     0.1063  0.0975  0.4145  0.1255  0.0479  0.0000  0.2083
  10     0.0999  0.0966  0.0981  0.4023  0.0233  0.0968  0.1830                  10     0.0999  0.0966  0.0981  0.4023  0.0233  0.0968  0.1830

Overall  0.1335  0.1271  0.1250  0.2145  0.0562  0.0744  0.2694                Overall  0.1240  0.1289  0.1263  0.2158  0.0575  0.0744  0.2730

Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit     Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit

RC = +35

Code:

Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer stands on soft 17....                    Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer hits soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} S17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS                Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} H17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}                              Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Subgroup removals: None                                                        Subgroup removals: None
Running count (before up card is dealt): 35   Cards remaining: 156             Running count (before up card is dealt): 35   Cards remaining: 156

Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST                 Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST
   1     0.0917  0.1103  0.1134  0.1163  0.0411  0.4000  0.1271                   1     0.0475  0.1191  0.1193  0.1224  0.0473  0.4000  0.1444
   2     0.1129  0.1060  0.1215  0.1227  0.1208  0.0000  0.4161                   2     0.1053  0.1076  0.1225  0.1237  0.1218  0.0000  0.4191
   3     0.1069  0.1031  0.1017  0.1172  0.1185  0.0000  0.4525                   3     0.1004  0.1045  0.1026  0.1179  0.1194  0.0000  0.4551
   4     0.1051  0.0943  0.0978  0.0978  0.1129  0.0000  0.4921                   4     0.0984  0.0956  0.0986  0.0987  0.1138  0.0000  0.4948
   5     0.1016  0.0956  0.0941  0.0897  0.0919  0.0000  0.5271                   5     0.0963  0.0966  0.0948  0.0904  0.0927  0.0000  0.5292
   6     0.1806  0.0795  0.0823  0.0806  0.0803  0.0000  0.4968                   6     0.1233  0.0910  0.0900  0.0885  0.0883  0.0000  0.5190
   7     0.4402  0.1368  0.0558  0.0590  0.0571  0.0000  0.2510                   7     0.4402  0.1368  0.0558  0.0590  0.0571  0.0000  0.2510
   8     0.1108  0.4296  0.1314  0.0504  0.0535  0.0000  0.2243                   8     0.1108  0.4296  0.1314  0.0504  0.0535  0.0000  0.2243
   9     0.1043  0.0950  0.4251  0.1266  0.0456  0.0000  0.2034                   9     0.1043  0.0950  0.4251  0.1266  0.0456  0.0000  0.2034
  10     0.0981  0.0945  0.0961  0.4133  0.0216  0.1000  0.1765                  10     0.0981  0.0945  0.0961  0.4133  0.0216  0.1000  0.1765

Overall  0.1316  0.1255  0.1237  0.2216  0.0532  0.0795  0.2649                Overall  0.1226  0.1273  0.1249  0.2229  0.0545  0.0795  0.2684

Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit     Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit

RC = +40

Code:

Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer stands on soft 17....                    Dealer probabilities - 6 decks dealer hits soft 17....
Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} S17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS                Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} H17, D2, OBO, noHSA, NDAS
Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}                              Specific removals (1 - 10): {0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0}
Subgroup removals: None                                                        Subgroup removals: None
Running count (before up card is dealt): 40   Cards remaining: 156             Running count (before up card is dealt): 40   Cards remaining: 156

Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST                 Up card    17      18      19      20      21      BJ     BUST
   1     0.0863  0.1076  0.1113  0.1145  0.0396  0.4129  0.1277                   1     0.0456  0.1160  0.1166  0.1199  0.0450  0.4129  0.1440
   2     0.1085  0.1016  0.1204  0.1228  0.1212  0.0000  0.4254                   2     0.1013  0.1031  0.1212  0.1238  0.1222  0.0000  0.4284
   3     0.1025  0.0988  0.0979  0.1166  0.1193  0.0000  0.4649                   3     0.0964  0.1001  0.0987  0.1173  0.1201  0.0000  0.4674
   4     0.1010  0.0898  0.0939  0.0945  0.1130  0.0000  0.5077                   4     0.0945  0.0912  0.0947  0.0954  0.1138  0.0000  0.5104
   5     0.0988  0.0913  0.0902  0.0861  0.0890  0.0000  0.5446                   5     0.0932  0.0924  0.0909  0.0869  0.0897  0.0000  0.5468
   6     0.1834  0.0755  0.0784  0.0772  0.0773  0.0000  0.5081                   6     0.1256  0.0875  0.0859  0.0848  0.0851  0.0000  0.5311
   7     0.4507  0.1372  0.0527  0.0560  0.0545  0.0000  0.2489                   7     0.4507  0.1372  0.0527  0.0560  0.0545  0.0000  0.2489
   8     0.1087  0.4399  0.1321  0.0476  0.0510  0.0000  0.2206                   8     0.1087  0.4399  0.1321  0.0476  0.0510  0.0000  0.2206
   9     0.1025  0.0927  0.4358  0.1277  0.0432  0.0000  0.1980                   9     0.1025  0.0927  0.4358  0.1277  0.0432  0.0000  0.1980
  10     0.0963  0.0925  0.0942  0.4244  0.0199  0.1032  0.1695                  10     0.0963  0.0925  0.0942  0.4244  0.0199  0.1032  0.1695

Overall  0.1297  0.1240  0.1225  0.2292  0.0503  0.0847  0.2597                Overall  0.1213  0.1257  0.1235  0.2303  0.0514  0.0847  0.2631

Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit     Press c or C for values conditioned on no dealer BJ, any other key to exit

k_c

**Northbend** · 05-21-2024, 12:22 PM

Oh wow, thank you k_c.

**Meistro123** · 05-23-2024, 01:39 AM

None of the links above answers the OP's question. He doesn't want to know the dealer's bust rate overall, for all upcards, by TC; he wants to know the bust rate specifically of a 4, 5, and 6, as they true count varies.

see the final post in the link I posted

~