Question about true count and chance of a dealer bust.

[Northbend]

I know that a 4 through 6 upcard usually has a 40-42 percent chance of busting. Using High-Low as a reference, does anyone know at what true count a 4,5 & 6 upcard has a greater than 50 percent chance of busting? This would be on a 6 deck shoe. Thanks everyone!

[Norm]

Depends on the number of players, as well as rules.

[Northbend]

Thanks for responding Norm. That makes sense. The scenario is two players, H17, DOA, DAS, no ace re-splitting, late surrender.

[Meistro123]

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ealer-by-count

[DSchles]

None of the links above answers the OP's question. He doesn't want to know the dealer's bust rate overall, for all upcards, by TC; he wants to know the bust rate specifically of a 4, 5, and 6, as they true count varies.

Dog hand has posted that chart here many times, but I don't have the link for it. If he sees it, he will post it, I'm sure. Meanwhile, if someone else knows where it is, please post, because the above is of no help.

Don

[Norm]

https://blackjacktheforum.com/entry....unt-and-Upcard

[Northbend]

Thank you Don, Meistro123 and Norm for responding! I now know that a true +five does not break 50 percent in this scenario. Does anyone by chance know what would get above the 50 percent mark? Say you could bet the casino that they would bust at a 4-6 at any point, at what true count would this be a positive expectation bet? Or is it such a high count that it probably would not happen?

[Freightman]

Thank you Don, Meistro123 and Norm for responding! I now know that a true +five. does not break 50 percent in this scenario. Does anyone by chance know what would get above the 50 percent mark? Say you could bet the casino that they would bust at a 4-6 any point, at what true count would this be a positive expectation bet?

I certainly hope you’re not considering a 6 v 4 double. You’re super max bet is out and the variance would be huge.

Here’s an analogy. You will never win 50% of hands regardless of true count (I think). The best you can hope for is to have win% = loss%, the sum of the 2 being less than 100% - that shortfall being ties. I believe that benchmark for wins = losses is around TC 5 or 6 (hi lo or halves).

Now, dealer 4’s, 5’s, 6’s busting 50% of the time is a fantasy. If you are considering this lunacy, EV maximizing is around TC 14. I think that could be categorized as an infrequent event on a 6d shoe. Further, there’s a little concept ive enunciated from time to time called QTC w/ ASC. You would want a deficit of aces with quantity of 6789 under no circumstance equaling faces.

I’ve never considered a double under your scenario if that is in fact what you’re thinking. I’ve had in days gone by the opportunity of doubling 7v6 on 2 occasions and having the gastric fortitude to actually doubling one of them - successfully. I no longer play enough to justify those types of plays - the amount of time required to overcome a negative outcome being a negative for me.

[Northbend]

I certainly hope you’re not considering a 6 v 4 double. You’re super max bet is out and the variance would be huge.

Here’s an analogy. You will never win 50% of hands regardless of true count (I think). The best you can hope for is to have win% = loss%, the sum of the 2 being less than 100% - that shortfall being ties. I believe that benchmark for wins = losses is around TC 5 or 6 (hi lo or halves).

Now, dealer 4’s, 5’s, 6’s busting 50% of the time is a fantasy. If you are considering this lunacy, EV maximizing is around TC 14. I think that could be categorized as an infrequent event on a 6d shoe. Further, there’s a little concept ive enunciated from time to time called QTC w/ ASC. You would want a deficit of aces with quantity of 6789 under no circumstance equaling faces.

I’ve never considered a double under your scenario if that is in fact what you’re thinking. I’ve had in days gone by the opportunity of doubling 7v6 on 2 occasions and having the gastric fortitude to actually doubling one of them - successfully. I no longer play enough to justify those types of plays - the amount of time required to overcome a negative outcome being a negative for me.

Ah, I'm not considering any kind of doubling situation, but I think you answered my question, thank you. Under only extreme situations would the true count be high enough to justify betting on a dealer bust, right? Just thinking of some side bets to possibly exploit.

[Freightman]

Ah, I'm not considering any kind of doubling situation, but I think you answered my question, thank you. Under only extreme situations would the true count be high enough to justify betting on a dealer bust, right? Just thinking of some side bets to possibly exploit.

There is always some math to look at. What are the rules? Are the payoffs variable and what are they? In other words, you may not need to win 50% + of the hands to make money off of the side bet.

There is always an analogy. Think about insurance. Break even is TC 3.0 where you win only 1/3 of hands - because payoff is 2-1. Higher the TC over 3.0, the more successful the side bet becomes. Again, there is variability involved. For example, there may be a particular side count which has favourable conditions for you - or the side counts I’ve previously mentioned.

[iCountNTrack]

Why would you look at at one parameter to make a decision. And what does the dealer bust rate have to do with anything. Unless there is a specific side-bet for dealer busting. That figure should be totally ignored. Use your true count to bet and the indices to make your playing decision

[Dog Hand]

Ah, I'm not considering any kind of doubling situation, but I think you answered my question, thank you. Under only extreme situations would the true count be high enough to justify betting on a dealer bust, right? Just thinking of some side bets to possibly exploit.

Northbend,

Here is the link to which Don referred earlier in the thread:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ncy-vs-HiLo-TC

The second graph there shows the minimum HiLo TC to give a dealer bust rate of over 50% is +9 for a 5 or 6 upcard and +13 for a 4 upcard: in other words, don't hold your breath ;-)

The above is derived from three two-billion-round CVData sims for a 6D, H17, 75% pen game, and the TC is actually the TC at the start of the round, NOT at the moment of decision.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

P.S. Don, bookmark the link ;-)

[name banned]

This is the side bet the OP is talking about.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...-bets/ez-bust/