Quote Originally Posted by Econ View Post

Using only HI-LO, a TC+4 is indicating an advantage to the player (EV 1.1%) and basically every additionnal TC is giving adding 4 percentage point to the EV.
The problem is a lot of your advantage is taken up with the higher payouts which means higher variance.

I don't rate ev-only analysis of this side bet. You need to adjust for the higher variance and look at the effects of removal on each component of the side wager in isolation.