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Thread: How to calculate EOR

  1. #1


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    How to calculate EOR

    I'm trying to code up sims for games I'm interested in, and in order to calculate EOR I just removed the card from the decks before simulating, leaving a deck less than 52 cards long. Is this a proper way to finding EOR? My sim has every other metric aligned perfectly with what it should be, dealer bust odds coming out to a solid 28.1899%, average player total, average dealer total, dealer bust odds after specific starting cards, everything else in the sim lines up perfectly with what should be the result. But the EOR's I found aren't lining up like they should, did I calculate EOR wrong? I couldn't find very much information about how to find it online, I assumed it was just self explanatory

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by PancakeStacks View Post
    I'm trying to code up sims for games I'm interested in, and in order to calculate EOR I just removed the card from the decks before simulating, leaving a deck less than 52 cards long. Is this a proper way to finding EOR? My sim has every other metric aligned perfectly with what it should be, dealer bust odds coming out to a solid 28.1899%, average player total, average dealer total, dealer bust odds after specific starting cards, everything else in the sim lines up perfectly with what should be the result. But the EOR's I found aren't lining up like they should, did I calculate EOR wrong? I couldn't find very much information about how to find it online, I assumed it was just self explanatory
    There is a well-detailed explanation of how to calculate EORs in "Theory of Blackjack" by Peter Griffin.
    Ideally, you would do this through combinatorial analysis for more accurate results. However, it's also possible to achieve it through various simulations.
    The idea is as follows:


    1. Calculate the mean "m" of the game of interest with the complete pack (1D, 2D, 6D, or 8D) using pure basic strategy.
    2. To calculate the EOR(A), simply remove an Ace from the pack and recalculate the mean. In this case, we call it "m(A)." Then, EOR(A) is calculated as "m(A)" minus "m".
    3. Repeat the operation for the rest of the cards, obtaining the remaining EORs.


    It's crucial to understand that each calculation involves a simulation. You can use CVData for this, requiring a minimum of 50 billion rounds for each simulation.
    The key is to set the penetration with a fixed number of rounds (10, 20, 30, or whatever) to avoid the cut card effect.

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post


    1. Calculate the mean "m" of the game of interest with the complete pack (1D, 2D, 6D, or 8D) using pure basic strategy.
    2. To calculate the EOR(A), simply remove an Ace from the pack and recalculate the mean. In this case, we call it "m(A)." Then, EOR(A) is calculated as "m(A)" minus "m".
    3. Repeat the operation for the rest of the cards, obtaining the remaining EORs.

    Cac
    So simply simulating the deck with a card removed then comparing that to the sim data from a default deck is correct? Am I supposed to be replacing the cards with something so the deck is 52 cards in length again? When the 10's are removed there's only 36 cards in the deck.

  4. #4


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    Quote Originally Posted by PancakeStacks View Post
    So simply simulating the deck with a card removed then comparing that to the sim data from a default deck is correct? Am I supposed to be replacing the cards with something so the deck is 52 cards in length again? When the 10's are removed there's only 36 cards in the deck.
    Let's say you're using a single deck. First, you calculate the expected value for the full deck (52 cards). Then, you run 10 more simulations with a deck of 51 cards because you want to calculate the effect of removing one card from that deck.
    In each of the 10 simulations, you remove one card at a time (A, 2, 3, ..., T).

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
    Let's say you're using a single deck. First, you calculate the expected value for the full deck (52 cards). Then, you run 10 more simulations with a deck of 51 cards because you want to calculate the effect of removing one card from that deck.
    In each of the 10 simulations, you remove one card at a time (A, 2, 3, ..., T).

    Hope this helps.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    IT does help, I appreciate it my man

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