Probability of loss

[AndretheGiant]

Years ago a teammate suffered a large loss, just wondering what the likelihood was.
2d s17 Bj pays 3 to 2 . 2 players on game hand shuffled.
Player plays perfect basic strategy for 3 hours flat betting $100.
He lost almost 11k.
Can someone sim this.

[DSchles]

Years ago a teammate suffered a large loss, just wondering what the likelihood was.
2d s17 Bj pays 3 to 2 . 2 players on game hand shuffled.
Player plays perfect basic strategy for 3 hours flat betting $100.
They lost almost 11k.
Can someone sim this.

No need to sim. Easy calculation. Virtually impossible if a fair game.

BS house edge is 0.324%. Figure 100 hands per hour. So 300 hands @ $100 per = $30,000 wagered. Expected loss = 0.00324 x $30,000 = $97.
One standard deviation per hand is about sqrt (300) x 1.15 x $100 = $1,992. So, the loss was greater than FIVE deviations (5.27). In other words, fuhgeddaboudit!

Don

[AndretheGiant]

I knew it was impossible but due to circumstances at the time I really couldn’t confront him.