No, just my typical typing prowess. I save the con toss for crittersOriginally Posted by Norm
QM didn't obsolete math. It was built using math. Our understanding of physics was extended. But, math is still math.
In any extent, it's more than a stretch to apply it to a casino. Theoretically quantum entanglement can cross a time barrier. But, to imagine that a coin is entangled with the coin in the past is stranger than me winning the Miss Teen America pageant.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Look at it this way, at any point that you have a unusually large number of unbroken events in repetitious trials you are just as likely to see a repetition of that same number of trials the same way as what you just experienced. This says nothing of the likelihood of the event you just experienced but addresses the fact that such an event is possible to occur again starting now. You can never say a repeat is impossible no matter how long the odds since it just happened. So if you just saw 100 reds in a row you have to acknowledge it is possible for the next 100 to be red. Then if you experience you can't deny the next 200 is just as likely as what you just experienced and so on.
The trouble you are having is our mortality. What seems like forever to you isn't even a blip compared to infinity. If there is an infinite number of roulette wheels spinning for eternity at any given time one would start a sequence that would spin red for eternity. No matter how many started this sequence of nonstop reds they would still be an infinitely small number compare to the whole of infinite number of roulette wheels. This is probability demonstrated visually in a way that allows you to understand the facts. It is equally likely to have all red as any other sequence of red and black. To get the specified sequence there is a slightly less than 50% chance for each trial whether it be red or black or green (much less than 50%). You are thinking in limited terms not infinite and you are assigning a significance to all red that is not justified. Red, black, red, black... has the same likelihood.
T3, I think he understands all that. He is saying there might be a not understood physical interaction that is affecting the results.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I know I have told this before but I saw an example of something that should be impossible happen. We were preparing windows for painting and I dropped a razor blade. It bounced across the hardwood floor and then almost stopped it rose on its edge and came to rest standing erect on the blade. For that to happen without it completing the tumble and coming to rest flat on the floor it had to have the exact energy to an infinite number of decimal places. We all tried for weeks to manually make a razor stand on edge but despite being able to set it exactly so and release it nobody could do it. In my opinion that is the statistical equivalent of spinning red forever. It is all but statistically impossible but it happened. The odds of it rolling over with that exact energy to infinite decimal places is infinitely small.
It is a matter of perspective. If you flip a coin 1 million times and record heads and tails by each sequential flip, like HTH is different than THH or HHT the sequence in order is what we are talking about. All 1 million flip sequences have the same odds of .5^1,000,000. So the odds of them all being H or all T is the same as any other sequence. So to say on odd looking one like all heads is impossible is to say all possibilities are impossible. If you record the next 1,000,000 tosses you have a sequence that actually happened. The odds of it happening again are the same as 1,000,000 straight flips of T's or 1,000,000 straight flips of heads. The only difference is in your perception. To you the latter sequences are unique and much more rare than any other sequence but the truth is every sequence is equally likely but you don't see a mixed sequence as unusual. You can prove this very easily starting at a sequence of 1 and adding one to the sequence at any time. The sequence of all heads or a sequence of all tails is just as likely as any other sequence. You would be no more likely to see any 1,000,000 flip sequence if you write it out in advance. You are just perceiving mixed sequences differently because your mind mistakenly lumps them together when the are each equally unique.
To sum up the sequence of the last 1,000,000 coin flips predicted in advance is just as unlikely as all heads or all tails and every 1,000,000 flips one of these equally rare sequences happen. So you in fact witness such a rare event with every 1,000,000 coin flip sequence. That should show how ludicrous your theory is.
Another easy exercise is to use a two different colored die. The odds of any color specific roll are 1 in 36. You say the odds of rolling 10 snake eyes in a row is so long it would never happen. Record the next 10 color specific rolls like red 6 green 5. Then see what sequence you roll next, the same sequence you recorded or 10 snake eyes in a row (red 1 and green 1). You are equally unlikely to roll either so you are just as likely to see 10 snake eyes in a row as the sequence you recorded. So the premiss that it is impossible is all about perspective. You witness an equally are event each time you run a set number of trials. The difference is you recognize the all the same result as different from most other results when in fact they are equally likely if you try to predict them in advance as an all the same result seems to you.
Now stop this ridiculous nonsense and answer a simple question: if you don't think seeing 1,000,000 heads in a row with a coin is "impossible," then what would you say the odds were that I'd flip a head on the next toss, given 999,999 heads in a row that I observed? If you say 50-50, you're out of your ever-loving mind. You'd have to be a raving lunatic not to think that there was something wrong with the coin.
Don
It would have crossed my mind. But if it was a fair trial the odds would be 50-50. Rare events do occur and some people are there to witness even the rarest of events like the razor blade incident.
The question to you is after I list of 1,000,000 heads tails sequential heads/tails predictions have hit correctly for the first 999,999,999 predictions do you decide I am clairvoyant or have magical powers and figure that last prediction is definitely right or do you figure my lucky streak has been 50-50 to end at each prediction of either heads or tails this time just as it was for the last 999,999,999 flips? It is the same thing but the predictions were not all the same prediction. If you don't like that number because it is too large how big does the sequence need to be for you to abandon probability and decide something else is going on? 10 flips? 50 flips? 100 flips? 1,000 flips? In blackjack you are 43% to win the next hand. I have won 27 in a row in my progression betting days. I am sure I have bested that in the decades since I abandoned progression betting but I don't have any way to count them in retrospect.
Sample size too small. My sim for my killer counting system has a worst case downswing of over $110K. The worst I have had is around $4K. I hope I never play enough rounds to see that $110K downswing. That extremely unlikely run can happen the first time you play or after many many lifetimes. The guarantee is if you play enough you will see it all. A lifetime of play is just a blip on the big scale.
For the razor to stop its roll at the peak standing on edge it had to have the exact energy to infinite number of decimal points. A hair more or less energy and it would fall over one way or the other. Just try placing a razor standing on edge 6,000 times and you won't get it once. Then think of the odds of dropping it to the the floor and it bouncing across the hardwood floor and the last thing it does as it losses all its energy is roll onto its edge and it stops standing on the razor thin edge. The odds of that are probably less than your roulette example but it happened and I have 4 witnesses.
I have caught rare events in nature more than once. Events biologists have sought to see for decades and failed. One such event is the migration of the elvers. All the american eels spawn in the Sargaso Sea. Then they swim thousands of miles to Europe and Eastern North America. I saw them twice stacking themselves on each other backs to climb a dam. The little 3 inch buggers get over 2 dams to be in the reservoir. they do it by their sheer biomass. It is an amazing sight to see millions of elvers all trying to get over the dams. It is even more amazing that any make it. Perhaps they get help.
I saw the spawning of the bloodworms. I am sure many have been there and not realized it. I was a commercial hook and line fisherman in my youth. We were catching big croaker as fast as we could get our lines wet. Sometimes 2 or 3 on a rig of these 4 to 4.5 pound fish. Pretty soon we would need to head in or sink the boat from the weight of fish. The trick was actually trying to cast and not catch them. Then like someone flipped a switch you couldn't get a hit. After 10 minutes of that I decided to look carefully around to see what was going on. It took a while but I finally spotted it. The water was teaming with bloodworms from the surface to the bottom. Every bloodworm had swum up out of the mud to spawn. They were even washing in and out of the free drain reservoir at the stern. If you didn't have a free swimming bloodworm as a bait you wouldn't get a bite and such a bait doesn't exist.
If you see a roulette ball fall on red 100 times, the first thing you should do is stop betting. You may want to observe further to look for signs of cheating. What you would NOT do, is call a high-energy physicist. You'd be better of calling Dustin Marks, or Penn and Teller.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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