I have a Brazilian 100,000 Cruzeiro bill somewhere from their hyper-inflation period. Actually, I think it was a 100 bill with three zeros officially stamped on it. They were changing currency so quickly, they didn't always have time to print new money.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
To me the idea that somebody "up there" with power to control all outcomes must be keeping track of everyone's computer and casino play goes far beyond gambler's fallacy. I see a little twisted and forgivable logic in the gambler's fallacy, that is, if I have lost 20 hands in a row, chances are I won't lose many more, because that at least agrees with everyday experience, even if it is entirely fallacious. But the idea that computer play and casino play might somehow be tied together, well that could only be true if that controller in the sky was on the job, and that frankly blows my mind, not that I want to disparage the OP, but all I can say to him is, "Think, man, think!" "We want you to learn AP, but you need to cast aside all preconceptions and begin to think on your own! Really!"
PS-- To console the OP, I once played the "mimic the dealer" strategy, reasoning that if the house does it, it must be the preferred play. I actually won once using this stupid methodology; hand after hand, it was like I was invincible. The house must have swallowed it's tongue, because the dealer never said a word. Lucky for me I had to leave in the wee hours of the morning from Silverton Casino, because my plane departure was only hours away.
Last edited by Aslan; 09-26-2012 at 04:21 PM.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
So that's how you do it! Don't be surprised if you get a visit from an SEC agent soon. It's not insider trading, but it just doesn't seem fair! Groucho_Marx_Emoticon_by_JakarNilson.gif
PS-- Did you ever consider selling short instead of wasting all that time in the casinos? sign idea.gif
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
I realize you’re joking. But, I was going to give a long response on the various reasons for selling short other than a pure gamble, many based on reducing a position resulting from options or other instruments that are illiquid for one reason or another. But, frankly, nearly every example I could think of leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Mostly, it comes down to selling something that you don’t have to sell. Common sense tells you that such transactions are less than Kosher.
Edit: Having said that, shorts for a true hedge certainly can make sense.
Last edited by Norm; 09-26-2012 at 06:06 PM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
In some markets selling short is equal to going long an opposite instrument.
The equity is still removed from your account as if you had purchased the security.
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