Ugh, I'm still waiting for one of you guineses to explain what "negative indicators" are to a simpleton like me.
Zzzzzzzzzz.
Ugh, I'm still waiting for one of you guineses to explain what "negative indicators" are to a simpleton like me.
Zzzzzzzzzz.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
Certainty, confidence, whatever. I've known Tthree for a long, long time, and in all that time he has always been a Raven's fan. I'm not saying he cannot rise above that, he's a very astute gambler, but did you not see the percentage he talked in praise of the Ravens as opposed to the time he spent praising the Patriots, the favorite? Spoken like a true fan! And I do certainly hope he's right. One thing about football, only one team of two can win, and with the spread, some call that a 50/50 chance. Being a Ravens fan, I, too, believe the Ravens are being underestimated at +7, but there's a lot of money that doesn't agree with me. All I can say is, "Go Ravens!"Originally Posted by Math Demon
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
A negative indicator is a predictor that gives confidence in the opposite of the prediction. Like a weather negative indicator predicted it to be sunny so you bring your umbrella or leave the sunscreen at home because his track record makes rain more likely than sun or at least that it will not be a sunny day.
Now I have not done well at all last year ending around 50% I think. I am used to so much higher than that, that 55% would have felt bad to me. After the first half of this year I had to set my ego aside and try to adjust to the changing NFL because what I did the last 2 years proved to be very different from previous years. Now MD has asked me privately to look at matchups and I have been spot on as to what would happen down to the player matchups many times. I have been wrong as well but he bases his assessment of my handicapping based on this seasons analysis of individual games not given in this thread. He added this to his analysis as a filter. He bet some games that I was demonstrated as risky and won more than he lost (I think). I have had some I did both in this thread and also privately for MD that couldn't have been more wrong. I think there is at least one such game analysis in this thread. Handicapping is tricky and I try to rate the likely scenarios for how the game will unfold and how each team will adjust their game plans to the changing scenarios and how that will go as the game goes forward. When what I thought was the unlikely scenarios play out AND they are very different from the likely scenarios I get one of those absolute opposite negative indicator type predictions. Does MD put me too high in my in depth analysis? Well, he has replied so many times after the game, "don't you get tired of being so absolutely spot on?" I think he does put me a little to high up but if I got the analyses I sent him and watched the games most often play out exactly as I said I would think the same thing.
Patriots certainly can win and even cover against the Ravens this week. I just expect Flacco to be post season Flacoo. If he keeps that up he will be regarded as the best post season QB ever. Some are already calling him that. The X-factor is Gronk. He can upset the balance but as long as Flacco is post season Flacco the game should be close so getting 7 points is probably going to be enough for an ATS win for the Ravens. Of course there are a lot more parts out on the field to mess things up but the new Ravens receivers have awe and confidence in post season Flacco. There are some players that just shine brightest in the highest pressure environments. Flacco is such a player. Brady and Peyton have not been as good as they once were in recent years. They are still better than most and bring tons of experience to any game. Really this week the matchups are pretty tight and the points are pretty large in every game so taking the points isn't a bad move in any of the games.
Last edited by Three; 01-10-2015 at 07:15 AM.
I am not posting picks for others to make bets on. I am posting the picks I got bets down on. Many bets are teasers and some parlays and teaser/parlay combos. One thing I do which I assumed any decent sports better does is look at the early line for lines i think will move. I don't care if I agree with them if I think a line will move significantly I get a bet in on the team that is benefitting from the inaccurate line. I know I can at least get a middle and sometimes with all the online books the middle is already available but patience usually gets a better middle. I think Sharky is either not ready to bet out of whack lines when they come out before they get adjusted or only has brick and mortar books to bet with. The online books I must use as my only option short of calling someone in vegas to make a bet for me (which doesn't always work out) usually have lines very different from Vegas but in the playoffs their difference has been only a point give or take if that much.
I am not sure why Sharky expected me to post my picks at a different line then I bet them at. I had one such pick I posted as an early bet for value that didn't make my pick list and won last week (CAR -4) but I didn't count it because I only bet it for value of the line imbalance not as a pick. If I was posting BS to get a better record don't you think I would have included that winning bet? I ended up letting it stand without playing a middle. Rarely do the extra half point to whatever make a difference in the record but depending on the line an extra half point can be so huge that it decides weather you make the bet. Like the difference between 3 points and 2.5 or 3.5 points. I have often posted about waiting for a number that never came. Only someone looking to attack me would chose to believe I am trying to pull a fast one when so much evidence shows the opposite and nothing shows that I am.
If you aren't combing the early lines for opportunity you are missing a huge part of AP sports betting. Just make sure you investigate any injuries or other things that may be the reason for the imbalance before you decide the line is out of whack. Of course some don't do their own handicapping so they would have no clue what is an imbalance in the line until late in the week when enough of whatever their sources are have expressed their opinions. True handicappers insulate themselves from all those influences because they will drive imbalance in late lines that are some of the biggest opportunities until the Sharps jump all over them. Then they disappear in a second.
It's spelled g-e-n-i-u-s. The plural form is either "geniuses" or "genii".
I was surprised that you knew the word "simpleton" ... and was able to spell it correctly. I'm guessing that you heard that word around you a lot!
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
Couple things
1. Aslan you might as well stop, the T3/MD thing is an impossible tandem to argue against, they care far more about unrelated statistics and disinformation than they actually care about tangible information relevant to the situation.
2. T3, you might want to change that "I only the post the lines I bet" post, because everyone with half a grain of salt on this forum knows your lines are nothing more than whymsical fantasies, I've yet to find (during the regular season) any "official" line or book that supports the lines you claim to have bet. Considering your analysis all season long takes so long, and you're unwilling to take "gut" decisions, you've never been positioned to take an advanced line according to your cautious, pragmatic approach to sportsbetting.
3. Anyone betting AGAINST New England, at home in the divisional game of the playoffs is up for a huge let down unless you got the early 7.5 or 8 lines, because New England is undoubtedly going to win this one. The question is do they win it by 5.5-6 like most people are calling it.
Forwarded to the blind man, Tthree:
.
To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
.
You don't need to forward it to him MD, he either doesn't have me ignored, or he clicks "view post" anyways, guy can't get enough of me. He thinks he's playing the moral high ground by "ignoring me" but posts so many intentional "bait" posts and underhanded comments, that it acts as a detriment to his reputation on the forum. Its cute, really, but not as cute as you being his errand boy or alter ego :P
Changing my Patriots/Baltimore pick to the Over.
The last three total scores of the Patriots hosting a divisional game (literally the last 3 years) have averaged 63 points. Of those last 3 divisional games they have hosted, New England scored an average of 43 points.
Conversely in their only 3 post season matchups, in which Baltimore is 2-1 against New England, all road games. the average score of the game has been 43.6 points, New England Scoring 16.6 of those on average in those 3 contests.
Baltimore now lacking a defense, and New England finally having a pretty strong one, this game is going to be one to upset all of the "Theories" of Baltimore being New England's kryptonite, besides we all know that's always been Rex Ryan and the New York Jets over the years.
I believe if Gamblor used "genii" to replace his misspelling, he would be incorrect. Genii is a word used in both Roman and Arabian mythology, but geniuses is the correct plural for a person with exceptional ability. I could be wrong, however, as I am no genius, which brings up another interesting fact: genii is the plural of both genius and genie. I wonder what genius is responsible for that? The answer is probably "none." These things just happen as language evolves. If enough of us start using genii instead of geniuses, after a while, it will become the correct plural. Ain't that interesting?whip1.gif
Last edited by Aslan; 01-10-2015 at 01:30 PM.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks