Sharky's NFL play of the week

[Exoter175]

And since T3's beating the dead horse of Cutler, as "slyly" as he can without directly quoting me, though intentionally attempting to troll and stir the pot......... How about that Aaron Rodgers game? Worst game of his career, and when given the chance to make a comeback and win, he takes the sack, fumbles the ball, and it gets recovered in the end zone by his own guy for the safety, forcing the Packers to punt/kick the ball back to Buffalo, after just giving them 2 points on the first snap of their drive. Ouch, though I ironically made that comment in this thread earlier about where he ranks for "comebacks" amongst the NFL.

[Three]

Those of you that have followed my football posts for the last 5 seasons know i like to comment on post season scenarios as bets on games when only 1 team has incentive to win are a craps shoot.

AFC to make the playoffs:
HOU: They are only 7-7-0 but have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. If they end up in a 3 way tie at 9-7 involving PIT for the wild card they make it and they win any 2 way tie. The trouble is they are auditioning QBs as their 1st, 2nd and 3rd string QBs are all injured. First they need to beat BAL and JAX in their final 2 home games. Then they need at most one of these to not happen: (the winner of the SD/KC game to loss their other game (either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)), (PIT to lose both their remaining home games against KC and CIN), (BAL to also lose their other game at home against CLE) and (BUF to lose one of their last 2 away games against either OAK or NE). The trickiest part is for them to win out.

BUF: Their hopes are even more bleak. They win no tie breakers. That means they must win out to get to 10-6 and have only 1 other non-division winner get to 10-6 or better. They need first to win out in their last 2 away games against OAK and NE. Then 2 of the following 3 events must happen: (The loser of the CIN/PIT game must lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT)), (BAL must lose their last 2 games @ HOU and hosting CLE) or (the winner of the SD/KC game must lose their other game (either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)).

SD: SD must beat KC to make the playoffs. If they beat KC and lose to SF (they finish 9-7): (HOU must beat BAL and lose to JAX), (BAL must also lose to CLE), (BUF must lose to either OAK or NE) and (KC must lose to PIT). IF SD beats both KC and SF (they finish 10-6), they need 3 of the 4 following things to happen: (BAL to lose to either HOU or CLE), (the loser of the CIN/PIT game must also lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT), (BUF must lose @ OAK or @ NE).

Now we get to teams that control their own destiny:
KC: They get a wild card spot if they win both @ PIT and hosting SD. If they lose @ PIT: (KC win hosting SD), and (BUF must lose either @ OAK or @ NE), and (BAL must lose both @ HOU and hosting CLE), and (HOU must lose to JAX).

BAL:
To win the division: (BAL must win both @ HOU and hosting CLE) and (the winner of CIN @ PIT must also lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT)).
To win a wild card: BAL must win both @ HOU and hosting CLE. OR
If they lose one of their last 2 games @ HOU and win hosting CLE, 2 of the following 3 events must happen: (PIT must lose hosting both KC and CIN), (the winner of SD/KC must lose their other game *either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)), (BUF must lose either @OAK or @ NE).

PIT (2 home games left against KC and CIN): To win the division PIT must beat CIN: AND KC; OR ((CIN losses also hosting DEN) AND (BAL losses either @ HOU or hosting CLE))
To win at least a wild card: (PIT must either beat KC) OR ((beat CIN) AND ((BAL loses one of its last 2 games) OR (KC loses to SD)) OR ((PIT loses both its remaining games) AND 3 of the following 4 events happen ((SD bets KC AND lose to SF), (BAL lose both its remaining games), (BUF loses either @ OAK or @ NE), (HOU loses either hosting BAL or JAX))).

Already having won their divisions but jockeying for seeding:
IND: Virtually locked into the 3 or 4 seed and playing in the division round. The only way for them to get a number 2 seed is for (IND to win both @ DAL and @ TEN) AND EITHER ((DEN to lose both @ CIN AND hosting OAK) OR (NE to lose both @ NYJ AND hosting BUF)). By kickoff in DAL on Sunday NE will have finished beating the jets most likely, laving IND only hope to get a first round bye in DEN losing both @ CIN and hosting OAK. IND will likely rest injured and key players for most of the game. The odds of are NE will already be out of reach and DEN isn't going to lose bot its last 2 games especially OAK playing in the thin MILE HIGH air.

DEN: DEN must have NE lose a game and win one more game than NE in the 2 left to get the number 1 seed. They lock up the number 2 seed with 1 more win or an IND loss.

NE can only lose the number 1 seed with a loss and DEN winning 1 more game than they do of the last 2. They secure a first round bye with 1 more win either @NYJ OR hosting BUF.

NFC:
SOUTH Divison:
CAR: They are in the worst shape since they are the only team of the 3 vying for the division that does not control its own destiny. They need: ((to win both hosting CLE AND @ ATL) AND (ATL wins @ NO))

ATL: They win the division if they win @ NO and hosting CAR

NO: They win the division if ((they win both hosting ATL and @ TB) OR ((They win @ TB) AND (ATL beats them in NO and loses to CAR) AND (CAR loses hosting CLE))

EAST:
PHI:
To win the division: They must win one more game @ WAS and @ NYG than DAL does hosting IND and @ WAS.
To secure at least a wild card (they win no tie breakers out of their division): ((PHI must win both @ WAS AND @ NYG) AND ((the loser of DET @ GB must lose their other game (either DET @ CHI or GB @ TB)) OR (the loser of SEA @ AZ must lose their other game (Either STL @ SEA or AZ @ SF)).

DAL:
To win the division : (they need to win both hosting IND and @ WAS) OR (PHI loses both @ WAS and @ NYG) OR ((PHI and DAL each win 1 more game) OR (DAL and PHI both lose both of their last games)).
To secure at least a wild card: ((DAL needs to win one more game) AND ((AZ needs to beat SEA) OR (the loser of DET/GB loses its other game (Either DET @ CHI or GB @ TB)) OR (AZ loses both hosting SEA and @ SF))))
OR ((DAL wins @ WAS) AND (GB loses hosting DET)).

NORTH:
GB:
To win the division: ((GB must win hosting DET) AND ((GB must win @ TB) OR ((GB loses @ TB) AND (DET loses @ CHI)))).
To secure a wild card spot: ((GB win at least 1 less game than PHI in the last 2 games) OR ((GB win @ TB) AND ((DAL lose @ WAS) OR (SEA lose both @ AZ and hosting STL))).

DET :
To win the division: ((DET must win @ GB) OR ((DET must win @ CHI) AND ( GB must lose @ TB)))
To secure a wild card spot: ((DET must win either @ CHI or @ GB) OR (PHI loses a game) OR (SEA loses both @ AZ and hosting STL) OR (GB wins 1 more game than DAL in the 2 weeks remaining))

WEST:
SEA (holds tie breaker with DET, GB, 3 or more team with DAL, with AZ if they beat them this week):
To win the division: ((SEA must win @ AZ) AND ((Either SEA wins hosting STL) OR (AZ loses @ SF)))
To secure a wild card spot: (must win 1 less game than PHI) OR (win the same number of games as (GB or DET)))

AZ (holds tie breaker against all teams except SEA which will be decided this week):
To win division: ((win hosting SEA this week and secures #1 seed) OR (win the same number of games as SEA in the last 2 weeks))
Already has secured at least a wild card

I hope that covers all scenarios. It gets pretty complicated.

Now consider games that both teams are playing for the playoffs first. You must be careful betting on games that one or more teams are better of losing or resting players because they have nothing left to play for. Look at coaches tendencies when they have nothing to play for. It is safest to just avoid games where one team may not be motivated to play their best this late in the year.

To play the cap dance teams that have nothing to play for use the opportunity to look at young players they hope will fill voids as a set of large salaries come due for contract renewal. The team is probably only planning on signing a set number of them if their young players look ready. If not there is bargains available on the free agent market after the upcoming draft. They may discover they have to adjust their plans by what the see.

[muffdiver]

And since T3's beating the dead horse of Cutler, as "slyly" as he can without directly quoting me, though intentionally attempting to troll and stir the pot......... How about that Aaron Rodgers game? Worst game of his career, and when given the chance to make a comeback and win, he takes the sack, fumbles the ball, and it gets recovered in the end zone by his own guy for the safety, forcing the Packers to punt/kick the ball back to Buffalo, after just giving them 2 points on the first snap of their drive. Ouch, though I ironically made that comment in this thread earlier about where he ranks for "comebacks" amongst the NFL.

That post alone illustrates the reason you'll likely be ignored by me (and probably others). First you mention Rodgers worst career game. Has anyone ever played that didn't have a "worst" game? Answer that. Then you go on to say he TOOK a sack. Get your replays out and watch it. He did not TAKE a sack. The ball was slapped out of his hand by Mario Williams after the rookie (Tretter) playing in the tackle position because regular (Bulaga) was out with a concussion, was beat around the end.
As for "comeback wins", it's impossible to get one when you have big leads early as has been the case in so many Packers wins. Throwing 6 TD passes in the first half against the Bears this year is just one of many, many examples. The record (shared by several) for all time TD passes in a game is 7. Had Rodgers wanted to stay in that game he would have easily SHATTERED it. No one questions that.
Anyway, I doubt that I'll respond to you anymore, so have fun and see how many more people you can get to "ignore" you. YOU could hold that record. Will you be proud of it?

muffdiver

[muffdiver]

Interesting game in AZ vs Seattle. Winner stands to gain first round bye. Loser faces road wild card game that probably wouldn't be determined until after week 17s games. I like AZ getting 8 but I made it a rule not to bet just for points. I can't tell you the last time a home team with a better record got more than a touchdown this late in the season. But I'll probably pass.

Will Stanton play for AZ? You're right in saying that 8 is a bunch but Seattle has improved by leaps and bounds in the last 4 to 6 weeks and look pretty good for a shot at being in the SB again. Hope they aren't but I have to call it like I see it.

[muffdiver]

Yeah, with these two defenses the under could be a better bet on this game than the spread.

[Three]

Az seems to have held their own regardless of who was taking snaps this year. Winning 11 out of 15 with two different QBs indicates team unity to me. I don't even try to handicap the majority of NFL games. That 8 will likely motivate players to stay focused in practice and not want to get blown out in front of home fans. But like you said, they are facing a monster. I don't believe Az can win outright, but a 21-14 finish with Seattle running out the clock wouldn't surprise me. Right now I pass. But it's a long time until Sunday.

The first run through has AZ or no play. I would not be quick to bet against SEA right now and 8 points is a lot to give up. I will be taking a closer look at this one.

[Exoter175]

That post alone illustrates the reason you'll likely be ignored by me (and probably others). First you mention Rodgers worst career game. Has anyone ever played that didn't have a "worst" game? Answer that. Then you go on to say he TOOK a sack. Get your replays out and watch it. He did not TAKE a sack. The ball was slapped out of his hand by Mario Williams after the rookie (Tretter) playing in the tackle position because regular (Bulaga) was out with a concussion, was beat around the end.
As for "comeback wins", it's impossible to get one when you have big leads early as has been the case in so many Packers wins. Throwing 6 TD passes in the first half against the Bears this year is just one of many, many examples. The record (shared by several) for all time TD passes in a game is 7. Had Rodgers wanted to stay in that game he would have easily SHATTERED it. No one questions that.
Anyway, I doubt that I'll respond to you anymore, so have fun and see how many more people you can get to "ignore" you. YOU could hold that record. Will you be proud of it?

muffdiver

Then ignore me already and stop talking about it, its clear to me that you're arguing out of Bias here, I brought up the Rodgers situation because we had DISCUSSED it earlier.

As for your "take" on the play, Rodgers could have done a number of things here. First, he could have stepped up and to the left in his pocket, which would have likely ended up in a very wide open "check down" to the running back out of the backfield. It would have likely resulted in about 6 or 7 yards, and a manageable 2nd and 3, giving themselves "breathing" room, after taking the snap with very little room between the pocket and the goal line. Second, he could have gotten rid of the ball, it was clear he was waiting for a deep route to develop, and it didn't, he saw the pressure from his right and makes a "baby" step up into the pocket while keeping that ball right out there to be swatted at. Third, he had a running lane WIDE open, and that's what Rodgers really does best in scenarios like this, he sees he doesn't have a man open, the play didn't develop and he's got a wide open running lane, tuck the ball, grab your yards, get everyone back to the line of scrimmage to snap the ball and go for a sideline route to stop the clock.

Point is Muff, he lost the game for them not only in his inaccuracies all day long, but also in the turnovers. He was given a shot to win a game late, and he gave it away on the FIRST snap of that drive. It was a point I had brought up in our discussion of Rodgers earlier this week when comparing him to the "best" the NFL has to offer, and I made a note to go through the list of QB's with game winning drives, Rodgers wasn't even in the top 100, and I believe he was at the cusp of top 150, behind half the starters currently in this league, and behind about 7 or 8 "younger" QB's.

All you seem to be talking about is "what ifs", what "if" Rodgers had thrown a 7th TD. Yeah, well, what if Roethlisberger wouldn't have been pulled late in both games this year? What if Roethlisberger and the Steelers kept the pedal to the floor and didn't kneel it inside the red zone to end the game?

You can make every argument you want about a "what if", but the fact of the matter is the "what happens" is the reality of the situation.

Yes, Rodgers and the Packers THIS YEAR haven't really put him into many situations to "win" a game, but that's his job, that's what he's there for. That's why they pay him the big bucks, to be able to run the 2 minute offense to get down the field and SCORE to win the game. If you can't do that, you can't win big games, and if you can't win big games, you don't win the super bowl and you end up sitting behind guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning on the "GOAT" list.

Is Rodgers the statistical "BEST" QB this year, absolutely, I think he's a shoe-in for the MVP this year, but make no mistake about it, he is NOT the Best QB "period". Brady is better, Brees is better, Manning is better. Rodgers might have the pretty statlines to "care" about in a competitively weak AFC North division, but at the end of the day, he hasn't yet reached that echelon of being "the best", and ultimately its unfortunate for him, because had this been 20-30 years ago, he'd have cemented himself as the GOAT, and likely won 5 or 6 super bowl rings in the process, instead, he came into a league where the "GOATS" are in their prime and putting up numbers he might NEVER touch.

At the end of his career, nobody's going to judge him by his statline alone. They are going to look at Rings, Awards, and where he ranks amongst the best, and a Single Ring, MVP, and the career passer rating isn't going to TOUCH what Brady and Manning have done, much less guys like Montana, Young, Marino, and Unitas.

But go ahead, ignore me because I hurt you feelings by disagreeing that your "favorite" QB isn't the GOAT.

PS, still waiting for proof that I've "flip flopped" a single time in this thread, much less "always".

[Three]

Originally Posted by Exoter175
And since T3's beating the dead horse of Cutler, as "slyly" as he can without directly quoting me, though intentionally attempting to troll and stir the pot......... How about that Aaron Rodgers game? Worst game of his career, and when given the chance to make a comeback and win, he takes the sack, fumbles the ball, and it gets recovered in the end zone by his own guy for the safety, forcing the Packers to punt/kick the ball back to Buffalo, after just giving them 2 points on the first snap of their drive. Ouch, though I ironically made that comment in this thread earlier about where he ranks for "comebacks" amongst the NFL.

Hey, others are discussing a few QBs. I comment on the discussion. Cutler's problem isn't his arm, it is higher up on his anatomy above his shoulders.

I guess from Muff's comment you are trying to paint Rodgers as the worst QB in the league when everyone knows he will be considered one of the best ever if injury doesn't shorten his career. Good luck convincing everyone of your credibility with that approach. Most posting on this thread are familiar with my posts for 4 or 5 seasons. You can't destroy the credibililty I have established with them so trying only hurts your credibility. I tried to move out of your head but I guess you have it as my permanent vacation home. LOL

Keep up the trolling and personal vendettta against someone that is ignoring you. Norm will eventually get around to banning you. He has more patients than I do but it is not infinite. People come to this site to be free of that as well as other things. People have told me you have stepped up the attacks and ridiculous posts trying to undermine 5 years of posts that have earned me respect when it comes to football posts. All that accomplishes is destroying any hope of you having credibility. I put you on ignore because your posts are not made in an effort to have an intelligent debate on football but rather some war with me you have invented in your mind. I got it when others said it was over the line but you just can't stop. The worst is picking on someone that doesn't even see your posts to debate you. You are acting both cowardly and have ceased to try to post intelligently about football. I could site stats to bolster almost any argument. That is the nature of statistics. When you only see stats and think Rodgers is a horrible QB rather than see their context and the big picture to admit he has had the best early career of any QB when you get rid of the luck factor of playing on a team that wins games.

A football expert can spot a great player on any team. A stat guy must have stats to tell him who is great. Why don't you show some football knowledge rather than just seeing stats? You haven't made one ATS prediction that I am aware of. Do you think just going with trends to pick Over/Under's is going to earn you respect? Being able to go beyond stats and trends to make picks both ATS and O/U will show some understanding of the game. Your picks show you have no confidence in your deeper knowledge of football. If you don't show confidence in analyzing games how can anyone else have confidence in you.

There are a few that are actually using what you post as a reverse barometer. They just figure you are wrong about whatever you post and factor your input into their analysis that way. That is the type of credibility you have built with emotionally driven personal attack based posts on someone that has already earned everyone's respect.

[Exoter175]

Those of you that have followed my football posts for the last 5 seasons know i like to comment on post season scenarios as bets on games when only 1 team has incentive to win are a craps shoot.

AFC to make the playoffs:
HOU: They are only 7-7-0 but have a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. If they end up in a 3 way tie at 9-7 involving PIT for the wild card they make it and they win any 2 way tie. The trouble is they are auditioning QBs as their 1st, 2nd and 3rd string QBs are all injured. First they need to beat BAL and JAX in their final 2 home games. Then they need at most one of these to not happen: (the winner of the SD/KC game to loss their other game (either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)), (PIT to lose both their remaining home games against KC and CIN), (BAL to also lose their other game at home against CLE) and (BUF to lose one of their last 2 away games against either OAK or NE). The trickiest part is for them to win out.

BUF: Their hopes are even more bleak. They win no tie breakers. That means they must win out to get to 10-6 and have only 1 other non-division winner get to 10-6 or better. They need first to win out in their last 2 away games against OAK and NE. Then 2 of the following 3 events must happen: (The loser of the CIN/PIT game must lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT)), (BAL must lose their last 2 games @ HOU and hosting CLE) or (the winner of the SD/KC game must lose their other game (either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)).

SD: SD must beat KC to make the playoffs. If they beat KC and lose to SF (they finish 9-7): (HOU must beat BAL and lose to JAX), (BAL must also lose to CLE), (BUF must lose to either OAK or NE) and (KC must lose to PIT). IF SD beats both KC and SF (they finish 10-6), they need 3 of the 4 following things to happen: (BAL to lose to either HOU or CLE), (the loser of the CIN/PIT game must also lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT), (BUF must lose @ OAK or @ NE).

Now we get to teams that control their own destiny:
KC: They get a wild card spot if they win both @ PIT and hosting SD. If they lose @ PIT: (KC win hosting SD), and (BUF must lose either @ OAK or @ NE), and (BAL must lose both @ HOU and hosting CLE), and (HOU must lose to JAX).

BAL:
To win the division: (BAL must win both @ HOU and hosting CLE) and (the winner of CIN @ PIT must also lose their other game (either DEN @ CIN or KC @ PIT)).
To win a wild card: BAL must win both @ HOU and hosting CLE. OR
If they lose one of their last 2 games @ HOU and win hosting CLE, 2 of the following 3 events must happen: (PIT must lose hosting both KC and CIN), (the winner of SD/KC must lose their other game *either KC @ PIT or SD @ SF)), (BUF must lose either @OAK or @ NE).

PIT (2 home games left against KC and CIN): To win the division PIT must beat CIN: AND KC; OR ((CIN losses also hosting DEN) AND (BAL losses either @ HOU or hosting CLE))
To win at least a wild card: (PIT must either beat KC) OR ((beat CIN) AND ((BAL loses one of its last 2 games) OR (KC loses to SD)) OR ((PIT loses both its remaining games) AND 3 of the following 4 events happen ((SD bets KC AND lose to SF), (BAL lose both its remaining games), (BUF loses either @ OAK or @ NE), (HOU loses either hosting BAL or JAX))).

Already having won their divisions but jockeying for seeding:
IND: Virtually locked into the 3 or 4 seed and playing in the division round. The only way for them to get a number 2 seed is for (IND to win both @ DAL and @ TEN) AND EITHER ((DEN to lose both @ CIN AND hosting OAK) OR (NE to lose both @ NYJ AND hosting BUF)). By kickoff in DAL on Sunday NE will have finished beating the jets most likely, laving IND only hope to get a first round bye in DEN losing both @ CIN and hosting OAK. IND will likely rest injured and key players for most of the game. The odds of are NE will already be out of reach and DEN isn't going to lose bot its last 2 games especially OAK playing in the thin MILE HIGH air.

DEN: DEN must have NE lose a game and win one more game than NE in the 2 left to get the number 1 seed. They lock up the number 2 seed with 1 more win or an IND loss.

NE can only lose the number 1 seed with a loss and DEN winning 1 more game than they do of the last 2. They secure a first round bye with 1 more win either @NYJ OR hosting BUF.

NFC:
SOUTH Divison:
CAR: They are in the worst shape since they are the only team of the 3 vying for the division that does not control its own destiny. They need: ((to win both hosting CLE AND @ ATL) AND (ATL wins @ NO))

ATL: They win the division if they win @ NO and hosting CAR

NO: They win the division if ((they win both hosting ATL and @ TB) OR ((They win @ TB) AND (ATL beats them in NO and loses to CAR) AND (CAR loses hosting CLE))

EAST:
PHI:
To win the division: They must win one more game @ WAS and @ NYG than DAL does hosting IND and @ WAS.
To secure at least a wild card (they win no tie breakers out of their division): ((PHI must win both @ WAS AND @ NYG) AND ((the loser of DET @ GB must lose their other game (either DET @ CHI or GB @ TB)) OR (the loser of SEA @ AZ must lose their other game (Either STL @ SEA or AZ @ SF)).

DAL:
To win the division : (they need to win both hosting IND and @ WAS) OR (PHI loses both @ WAS and @ NYG) OR ((PHI and DAL each win 1 more game) OR (DAL and PHI both lose both of their last games)).
To secure at least a wild card: ((DAL needs to win one more game) AND ((AZ needs to beat SEA) OR (the loser of DET/GB loses its other game (Either DET @ CHI or GB @ TB)) OR (AZ loses both hosting SEA and @ SF))))
OR ((DAL wins @ WAS) AND (GB loses hosting DET)).

NORTH:
GB:
To win the division: ((GB must win hosting DET) AND ((GB must win @ TB) OR ((GB loses @ TB) AND (DET loses @ CHI)))).
To secure a wild card spot: ((GB win at least 1 less game than PHI in the last 2 games) OR ((GB win @ TB) AND ((DAL lose @ WAS) OR (SEA lose both @ AZ and hosting STL))).

DET :
To win the division: ((DET must win @ GB) OR ((DET must win @ CHI) AND ( GB must lose @ TB)))
To secure a wild card spot: ((DET must win either @ CHI or @ GB) OR (PHI loses a game) OR (SEA loses both @ AZ and hosting STL) OR (GB wins 1 more game than DAL in the 2 weeks remaining))

WEST:
SEA (holds tie breaker with DET, GB, 3 or more team with DAL, with AZ if they beat them this week):
To win the division: ((SEA must win @ AZ) AND ((Either SEA wins hosting STL) OR (AZ loses @ SF)))
To secure a wild card spot: (must win 1 less game than PHI) OR (win the same number of games as (GB or DET)))

AZ (holds tie breaker against all teams except SEA which will be decided this week):
To win division: ((win hosting SEA this week and secures #1 seed) OR (win the same number of games as SEA in the last 2 weeks))
Already has secured at least a wild card

I hope that covers all scenarios. It gets pretty complicated.

Now consider games that both teams are playing for the playoffs first. You must be careful betting on games that one or more teams are better of losing or resting players because they have nothing left to play for. Look at coaches tendencies when they have nothing to play for. It is safest to just avoid games where one team may not be motivated to play their best this late in the year.

To play the cap dance teams that have nothing to play for use the opportunity to look at young players they hope will fill voids as a set of large salaries come due for contract renewal. The team is probably only planning on signing a set number of them if their young players look ready. If not there is bargains available on the free agent market after the upcoming draft. They may discover they have to adjust their plans by what the see.

I'm not even sure why you have Houston and Buffalo listed here. While they are mathematically in, they stand zero chance of a 9-7 wild card spot.

If they were to land at 9-7 in a three way tie, and that is more likely than a two way tie at this point, It'll likely land with KC, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh/Baltimore unless Cincy loses out, but lets go with Cincy being the division winner right now, and Baltimore taking the 5th seed. That leaves us with KC, Buffalo (extremely unlikely), Houston (very unlikely), and Pittsburgh (likely).

Step 1 of the multi-team non-divisional tie breaker doesn't matter since they are all in separate divisions.
Step 2 of the multi-team non divisional tie breaker doesn't matter since no team has beaten all of the others.
Step 3 rules out Buffalo and Kansas City by conference Records, as KC likely ends 7-5, buffalo around 5-7, and with Houston and Pittsburgh being tied at 8-4.
Since there are two teams left after the third step, it reverts back to the first step of the two club format where Pittsburgh takes the spot by manner of their head to head win against Houston in week 7.

In fact, thinking about it now, the only way that Houston "gets in" is if they tied Kansas City in a three way tie with Buffalo or Baltimore, and take it with the Conference record of 8-4

Will Stanton play for AZ? You're right in saying that 8 is a bunch but Seattle has improved by leaps and bounds in the last 4 to 6 weeks and look pretty good for a shot at being in the SB again. Hope they aren't but I have to call it like I see it.

Stanton is likely out, they were talking about having Lindley start a day or two ago.

Hey, others are discussing a few QBs. I comment on the discussion. Cutler's problem isn't his arm, it is higher up on his anatomy above his shoulders.

I guess from Muff's comment you are trying to paint Rodgers as the worst QB in the league when everyone knows he will be considered one of the best ever if injury doesn't shorten his career. Good luck convincing everyone of your credibility with that approach. Most posting on this thread are familiar with my posts for 4 or 5 seasons. You can't destroy the credibililty I have established with them so trying only hurts your credibility. I tried to move out of your head but I guess you have it as my permanent vacation home. LOL

Keep up the trolling and personal vendettta against someone that is ignoring you. Norm will eventually get around to banning you. He has more patients than I do but it is not infinite. People come to this site to be free of that as well as other things. People have told me you have stepped up the attacks and ridiculous posts trying to undermine 5 years of posts that have earned me respect when it comes to football posts. All that accomplishes is destroying any hope of you having credibility. I put you on ignore because your posts are not made in an effort to have an intelligent debate on football but rather some war with me you have invented in your mind. I got it when others said it was over the line but you just can't stop. The worst is picking on someone that doesn't even see your posts to debate you. You are acting both cowardly and have ceased to try to post intelligently about football. I could site stats to bolster almost any argument. Tat is the nature of statistics. When you only see stats and think Rodgers is a horrible QB rather than see their context and the big picture to admit he has had the best early career of any QB when you get rid of the luck factor of playing on a team that wins games.

A football expert can spot great player on any team. A stat guy must have stats to tell him who is great. Why don't you show some football knowledge rather than just seeing stats? You haven't made one ATS prediction that I am aware of. Do you think just going with trends to pick Over/Under's is going to earn you respect? Being able to go beyond stats and trends to make picks both ATS and O/U will show some understanding of the game. Your picks show you have no confidence in your deeper knowledge of football. If you don't show confidence in analyzing games how can anyone else have confidence in you.

There are a few that are actually using what you post as a reverse barometer. They just figure you are wrong about whatever you post. and factor your input into their analysis that way. That is the type of credibility you have built with emotionally driven personal attack based posts on someone that has already earned everyone's respect.

How is it that I'm painting Rodgers as the worst QB in the league, while simultaneously calling him the shoe-in for MVP and commenting that he's having the best year of any QB in the league?

This argument stems from the original debate about the AFC North QB's where you basically said that Stafford and Cutler were garbage, and that Rodgers was the best bargain in all of the NFL with a "team friendly" deal, and he's not. He's neither the best bargain, nor the most "team friendly" deal. From there, you went on the tirade about Cutler, quoting "buzz words" and "garbage lines" from the bloggers and website covering the NFL, like, "Cutlers problem is above his shoulders", everyone already knows that T3. Cutler has a golden arm and a questionable brain in regards to decision making, everyone knew it coming out of college. Your "wise words" here, are nothing but regurgitated lines splattered throughout all of the NFL's many websites, nothing you write is ever truly original, and yet you dare attack me for being ORIGINAL with my opinions?

And then you throw out underhanded comments left and right, while simultaneously trying to argue with me by "ignoring me" yet making posts directed at me, not including the quote from someone else where you quoted my quote within their quote, having to go WAY out of your way to do so, just to argue more?

And then finally, you threaten ME with a Ban via. Norm, and norm hasn't spoken, hasn't so much as given me a warning, and you're talking for HIM on HIS site.

Take a chill pill T3, your head is getting a little too big for your hat.

Besides, I already eviscerated your argument about Baltimore's "abandoning the run" the other week, so I'm not sure what "credibility" you truly have here in the realm of FOOTBALL.

You have my respect and everyone else's in blackjack, but you sir have made post after post clearly outlying your lack of insight in football, here, and your "Credibility" of blackjack does not translate here to football, you are nothing more than an amateur like the rest of us, the only difference being here in the football word, I'm the one with the "real" information, and you're the guy quoting box scores like they are some whimsical "tell all" of a teams' success.

[Math Demon]

Where can I find team and player stats summarizing the last n games (n >= 2)? I'm interested in Offense and Defense cumulative/summarized stats as well as stats for key players.

For example, what are the Offensive and Defensive stats for ARZ and SEA for the last 4 games? What are IND QB Andrew Luck's cumulative/summarized passing numbers, turnovers, QB rating for the last 3 games? Or IND RB Herron's rushing numbers in the last 2 games?


Thanks!

[Math Demon]

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Bears will start Jimmy Clausen over Jay Cutler in Week 16 against the Lions.


The Bears are benching Cutler just 14 starts into his seven-year, $127 million extension. Per NFL Network's Mike Silver, coach Marc Trestman felt he could no longer start Cutler "simply to justify a contract" when his on-field play was so poor. Cutler regressed in his second season in Trestman's offense, leading the NFL in turnovers (24). Owed a fully guaranteed $15.5 million next year, the Bears' only option is to trade Cutler this offseason if they want to move on from him. Chicago would absorb $19 million in dead money by releasing Cutler before 2016.

Dec 17 - 6:41 PM

[Exoter175]

Where can I find team and player stats summarizing the last n games (n >= 2)? I'm interested in Offense and Defense cumulative/summarized stats as well as stats for key players.

For example, what are the Offensive and Defensive stats for ARZ and SEA for the last 4 games? What are IND QB Andrew Luck's cumulative/summarized passing numbers, turnovers, QB rating for the last 3 games? Or IND RB Herron's rushing numbers in the last 2 games?


Thanks!

PFF and FBO should have a decent grouping of stats, or you can build your own exact numbers using the statistics from NFL.com

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Bears will start Jimmy Clausen over Jay Cutler in Week 16 against the Lions.


The Bears are benching Cutler just 14 starts into his seven-year, $127 million extension. Per NFL Network's Mike Silver, coach Marc Trestman felt he could no longer start Cutler "simply to justify a contract" when his on-field play was so poor. Cutler regressed in his second season in Trestman's offense, leading the NFL in turnovers (24). Owed a fully guaranteed $15.5 million next year, the Bears' only option is to trade Cutler this offseason if they want to move on from him. Chicago would absorb $19 million in dead money by releasing Cutler before 2016.

Dec 17 - 6:41 PM

Honestly not surprised by the move at all. It doesn't really "mean" anything for Cutler, aside from sitting back and sipping on some guaranteed money while Marc Trestman does what he can in the final two games to save his job. Interesting, though, if that is an actual quote from Marc Trestman in regards to starting cutler "simply to justify a contract", sounds a lot like the Owner and Coach aren't seeing eye to eye, and there's already reports abound that Trestman will be losing his job in the offseason, not sure I'd want to be making "that" remark about Cutler in his position, as it could be potentially damaging to his career, but in the meantime, I'm sure it'll garner him some "praise" with fans "abroad" not just in Chicago.

From what I can gather, there are only three suitors in line for a "trade" here, with that number growing to seven suitors should they release him this offseason, though we all know that will not be happening.

Chicago will be in "evaluation" mode over the next two weeks, with Clausen being the first benefactor of the "evaluation" period, alas, this is simply what teams do when they've thrown in the towel and decide to go into "rebuild" mode. Truth be told, they should have been rebuilding long before this, as Cutler, Jeffery, Marshall, and Forte were the only real "keys" to that team, as the Defense has gone to absolute shit since Urlacher retired.

[Three]

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Bears will start Jimmy Clausen over Jay Cutler in Week 16 against the Lions.

I guess they read my post. LOL

The Bears are benching Cutler just 14 starts into his seven-year, $127 million extension. Per NFL Network's Mike Silver, coach Marc Trestman felt he could no longer start Cutler "simply to justify a contract" when his on-field play was so poor. Cutler regressed in his second season in Trestman's offense, leading the NFL in turnovers (24). Owed a fully guaranteed $15.5 million next year, the Bears' only option is to trade Cutler this offseason if they want to move on from him. Chicago would absorb $19 million in dead money by releasing Cutler before 2016.

Dec 17 - 6:41 PM

It sounds like they have little intention of starting him next year if they can help it. I thought they would seriously consider that route. It was pretty obvious. Hopefully they can trade him or the contract is really crippling them for next season. I am sure there is a delusional person on this site that will still tell everyone he knows all about football and how wrong I have been and that he has proved it despite all the real life events tat say otherwise. The same malarchy even though he has been wrong over and over and over again. You can never learn from being wrong unless you can first admit you were wrong. I don't know how much more wrong someone can be and have events absolutely prove it. I am sure he will continue to undermine his credibility by defending his now absolutely proven wrong positions on Cutler (despite no posted support from anyone on the site) and the contracts as has been his pattern.

Meanwhile Rodgers cruises along with his team to the playoffs. They are one of 2 hot teams in the NFC. The hot teams going into the playoffs usually make the SB. One of these 2 probably will (SEA or GB). Of the remainder DAL looks strongest right now with DET and AZ hanging in there but fading. Now that Romo isn't asked to carry the team he is less likely to make mistakes. When he threw on about 70% of the plays, there was just too many opportunities for him to make a poor decision. We will see if a more balanced offense translates into Romo not "choking" in the playoffs or end of the season. So far it has been working well to pretty much avoid such occurrences. This year has been the year of long standing trends being turned on their heads (NO dominating at home and playing miserably on the road shattered to name one very long standing trend. This year they have the same road and home record and have been beaten brutally at home by many teams. Many teams that have enjoyed huge home field advantages have also seen the home field advantage moderated to a more normal level. How many seasons have you all heard me call Philly the Jeckel and Hyde team? They are getting pretty consistent lately. The SF dynasty seems to be crumbling. Strong historic trends from previous seasons just aren't worth much this year). By limiting the number of decisions Romo makes throwing the ball you lower the odds he will screw the pooch trying to make something happen.

Rodgers is a great QB but like Muff pointed out the best already have a big lead in the 4th quarter. To some a come from behind snatching victory from the jaws of defeat during the last drive of the game is impressive, to others it is certainly dramatic but having the game already in hand is more impressive. I don't care how much Ex may be bad mouthing Rodgers, I think he is the best QB playing right now. If Ex is saying otherwise, as the quoted posts that I get to see seem to indicate, he is wrong yet again. I guess everyone already knows this judging by the posts on the topic.