Don,

Using CVData's Multitracking feature, I ran a quarter-billion hand sim for 6D, S17, DA2, DAS with 5/6 pen. Three players were involved: Mr. B, who played Complete Basic Strategy; Mr. A, who played Altered Complete Basic Strategy (he always hit 12 vs. 4); and Mr. W, who wonged in whenever the TC >= +1, and wonged back out whenever the TC < +1, and so as a consequence played only 30.4% of the hands.

I checked the advantage for Mr. B and Mr. A for the two-card hand 12 vs. 4: for Mr. B, this was -21.20%; for Mr. A, it was -21.22%. Thus, when dealt 12 vs. 4, hitting or standing was a coin flip for the B.S players.

However, I should point out that this standing EV, -21.20%, is lower than the off-the-top EV for a straight B.S. player, which (according to Eric Farmer's program... I confess... I left the house this morning without my pocket edition of BJA3!) is -21.1115% for 10,2 vs. 4; -20.8039% for 9,3 vs. 4; -20.6788% for 8,4 vs. 4; and -20.2485% for 7,5 vs. 4. I took a weighted average of these, 4*(-21.1115)-20.8039-20.6788-20.2485)/7 = -20.8825%, for the OTT EV for standing on 12 vs. 4. Thus, we see that the presence of Mr. W has LOWERED the EV of standing on 12 vs. 4 for the Mr. B from -20.88% to -21.20%.

Furthermore, according to CVData's output, Mr. B and Mr. A each faced this situation on 0.646% of the hands each played. A rough calculation (ignoring the change in probability due to the dealer's upcard of 4) shows that, in the absence of Mr. W, Mr. B (and Mr. A) should face this situation 100%*2*(4/169+1/169+1/169+1/169)/13= 0.63723...%. Thus, we see that, due to Mr. W, Mr. B is faced with this crappy hand more frequently than "normal".

To summarize: the presence of the wonger does have an effect on the B.S. EV of the B.S. players, but in this situation not enough of an effect to make hitting 12 vs. 4 better than standing.

I ran just this one strategy variation because, as far as I can recall, it is the "closest call" for the 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game. If I've missed another one, just let me know!

Dog Hand