Best EV for Matchplay and Freeplay coupon?

[Charlie Mosby]

...CE is more or less a convenient way to describe the expected utility growth for a particular bet....
...
A certain income (with zero variance) equal to CE will increase our utility by the same amount as making that bet. Using CE doesn't imply that we have any risk of ruin or that we are betting any particular fraction of our bankroll, it's just a way of finding out how much the overall utility of our bankroll will change if we make the bet.

I'm good so far

...
If we are only going to make one bet in our life, CE is still a valid tool.
...

I'm not going to disagree with you on this, but this is an interesting issue bordering on personal/philosophical preference.

If there is only going to be one single trial, does the mathematical model of distribution and sampling makes sense? There's the age old Bayesian vs. frequentist approach, and then there's those non-mathematical 'models'.

Anyway this is off topic :P

Notice that I said that formula gives a good estimate of CE. It's not exact. For games where the assumption of normally distributed results fits well, the estimate will be pretty good. You can calculate the expected utility directly similar to how you would calculate EV. Let me know if you'd like me to explain that. The direct calculation will give an exact result.

Yes, please!

All I know about certainty equivalence for certain (ha) is those few pages from BJA3 and something in the FAQ page from bj21.com
(btw, I believe there's some error in that FAQ page regarding the utility function of betting fraction Kelly.....the function given doesn't converge to logarithmic)

I have tried to google something that introduces me CE from the start, but I haven't found helpful sources so far. So far I've been only making guesses from what I read.

If you can outline it for me, or point me to some textbook or paper, I'd pretty much appreciate that!

The 73% value includes the cost of your live money bet.

Good to know. Thanks.
I'm gonna get back to this some time later if I find out otherwise after double checking.

[Charlie Mosby]

..... but you're at a more disadvantage because you'll win 50% of the FP 18/19 times (or 36/38 times), due to the 0 and 00 numbers.

Of course, there are other and better ways to get a higher return, but it's a simple way to nearly guarantee 1/2 your FP.

Yeah I think baccarat is better in terms of guaranteeing the win for lock-betting.

[Charlie Mosby]

The 73% value includes the cost of your live money bet. Played that way, $100 in funny chips are worth $73

I'm gonna get back to this some time later if I find out otherwise after double checking.

oh I mean they way you put it ('the coupon/funny-chips's worth') and the way JG's put it, it makes me wonder if the game as a whole (with mixed coupon and live-money) is ev = 0.73 or it's just the coupon's part that's 73% of it's face value.


I know as you pointed out that the variance/2kB factor is going to be small so the games can basically b ranked by their 'ev'.
I'm going to try to find out the variance and do CE analysis just for the sake of it :P






Also, I'd like to add that, I brought up the question of RoR in CE analysis, because one can easily have a +ev but negative CE situation, not only in skewed situations but also in blackjack.


Negative CE usually means overbetting in some sense. I think the core of the notion of 'overbetting' is that there is a higher RoR than desired.


The wager size matters in this context.


When using only funny-chips (coupons), I wonder if the wager size should still be the same nominal value, since now there's no such thing as overbetting or being down.

[RS]

Using match/free-play, you still wouldn't want to over-bet your BR.

[Solo player]

A good play. Is to use, free bet even money coupons(good until won or lost) for ante bets at Caribbean Stud. This way you don't have to put any real money down until you've seen the cards. Plus you have the chance of getting a nice pay out if you catch a good poker hand.

[AP360]

A good play. Is to use, free bet even money coupons(good until won or lost) for ante bets at Caribbean Stud. This way you don't have to put any real money down until you've seen the cards. Plus you have the chance of getting a nice pay out if you catch a good poker hand.

This is a good point... I'd never thought of before. I'll try that with CEC's Direct Bets. Doesn't sound too feasible w/ MP's though. For those, I'll stick to Bacc.