Go here and read the article "Beyond Coupons" for a complete explanation and strategies:
http://www.beyondcounting.com/articles.html
Go here and read the article "Beyond Coupons" for a complete explanation and strategies:
http://www.beyondcounting.com/articles.html
if you think about it betting the freeplay as a bet you would make anyway you only are better off if you lose it. If you win you lose the coupon and win what you would have anyway. If you lose instead of losing cash you lose a piece of paper. The other part is you wouldn't make defensive splits. You have nothing at risk. So splitting puts money out at a disadvantage. Then there is doubling. You double a hand and give up some EV to get a smaller edge with double at risk and reward. The situation is strong so the math adds up. Now you have nothing at risk but a piece of paper. If you hit you risk nothing to win the $50 on an 11 that you will be able to hit again if you like. If you double against a 7 or higher you would hit a stiff if you could. By doubling the coupon your risk goes from 0 to win $50 to risk $50 to win $100 and give up the chance to hit that stiff as you would like to. It makes sense at risking $50 to win $50 to sell your ability to hit in order to get $100 on the felt to win $100 but when you are risking a coupon that costs you nothing if lost is it wise to sell the ability to hit by going from nothing at risk that wins $50 to $50 at risk in order to win $100 rather than $50? Most say the value of the coupon is half is face value but once it has a matchup attached to it the value changes. You have similar but different issues with a match play. These are questions you want to know the answers to before you put that coupon on the felt. If you play the coupon at a different game that is now a +EV bet you wouldn't have made anyway none of these issues come into play.
Or depends NOT
the rules of the coupon hardly matter
given a $10 coupon if you make a $1 a hand at bj and your going to play roulette?
I imagine you would miss approx 3 hands? Or $3 in EV!
So if you make a $1 a hand at bj. I JUST ADDED 30% TO THE COUPON VALUE BECAUSE YOUR PLAYING BJ and not playing a negative EV game. I am referring to your average EV per hand seen/played.
Like I said I don't think its never mentioned that bj is positive EV! : devilish:
You are standing at a table counting it!
The difference in these decisions isn't worth the worrying. Is half your play coupons?
Or stumble to another game and miss $3 in bj EV and play a negative EV game That's a $6 swing.
Last edited by blackjack avenger; 04-25-2013 at 08:42 PM.
The fact that I go play the coupon at roulette doesn't mean I'm going to play less blackjack. I'm going to play blackjack for my intended session length, no more, no less. If I intend to show my spread once, twice, whatever, then leave, I'm not going to get to play 3 more hands of BJ because I didn't play my coupon at roulette. Instead, maybe when the count tanks and I wong out, and there isn't a fresh shuffle available, maybe that's a good time to drop by the roulette table and play the coupon. Maybe I play the coupon while backcounting the adjacent BJ game. If I don't get a break this session, I can save it for next time. I think most APs would agree that there are a lot of short periods of time to fill when you're in a casino. Finding time to play one spin of roulette shouldn't make you miss out on any other available play.
Also, in reply to your last post, the EV of the base game isn't the main factor that determines the value of the coupon, it's the likelihood of loss. Since BJ is much lower variance, your likelihood of a loss in any given hand is never really far off of 50%, which means even if you play the coupon on a bet you are already making, the loss rebate value is never more than about 50% of the rebate, versus roulette where the rebate value is over 97% of the amount of the rebate (since the rebate pays of 37 times out of 38). You give up 5.26% of $20 to gain 97% of $10, or thereabouts. For BJ, the maximum gain is about 50% of that same $10 rebate. The EV of blackjack has nothing to do with why it's not the best choice for matchplays.
Last edited by Nyne; 04-25-2013 at 08:54 PM.
I think most sessions are time limited. A trip to Vegas or AC as an example.
Think your splitting hairs proves my point its much to do about nothing.
I will undercut some of your claims about waiting. One wants to play it quick in case of getting backed off. So one should not wait. Get to the bj table and START COUNTING!
I was going to state it depends on casino layout. The game you get to first! LOL. In order to save time.
However, the EV swing of positive expectation BJ beats everything. My example is easy to follow.
Should one play a coupon on a positive or negative EV game? I would choose positive EV
Another thought on dead time. A shoe half dealt has more value then a roulette table doesn't it? Stay where the money is.
Last edited by blackjack avenger; 04-25-2013 at 09:02 PM.
Having thought of my position overnight.
I'M STILL RIGHT!
but it depends.
My basic premise is standing in a bj pit has value to a counter which is never considered in these discussions.
If the coupon is equal to a minimum bet your probably better off at bj because every hand of bj you watch has value. A value that can be worth more in a few hands then the value of the coupon. As the coupon approaches ones max bets then other plays increase in value.
As far as casino layout, speed of games, rules, etc. are all very open variables.
I will add this. Many have talked about when nothing is available in bj. Unless the pit is closed several half dealt shoes have value.
Waiting any length of time you may lose the ability to play it. The casino can revoke at any time.
Read this: http://www.beyondcounting.com/pdfs/b...ouponsbjfo.pdf
A bet on high variance games can be worth twice as much as other games.
Some may ask: if it's a $10 matchplay, why are we splitting hairs over a few dollars here and there?
Answer: not all matchplays are $10. I have had $500 matchplays. I know people who have had several thousand dollars in matchplays. Having $2000 in matchplay be worth $1800 vs. $900 is not splitting hairs. This theory also applies to sticky bonuses. It also applies to loss rebates. It could potentially apply to all sorts of situations in casinos. It applies to options valuations in finance, etc. etc. etc.
Last edited by moo321; 04-29-2013 at 08:58 AM.
The Cash Cow.
I've been reading through it -- takes a little while because I'm not familiar with the whole coupon thing. I'm still having a really tough time seeing how there's a difference in playing $20 cash on roulette and $10 cash + $10 coupon in BJ....compared to $10 cash + $10 coupon on roulette and $20 cash on roulette. [Well....other than the times when "if you surrender, you lose half your bet AND the entire coupon" or the "if you double-down you're triping your risk ($10 -> $30) to win twice as much ($20 -> $40). Either way, the win/loss amount is going to be the same if we lose BJ and win roulette or win BJ and lose roulette or any other combination.] I'll start over from the beginning again....but I don't think my brain wants to see the difference! >
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
The difference is you are far more likely to lose in roulette, so you'd rather lose $10 cash and the coupon there instead of $20 cash. The value of the coupon as a loss rebate only kicks in on a loss, and that happens 37 out of 38 times on a number at roulette. Simplifying BJ to a fair coin flip for the sake of argument, you get the following for the two scenarios you mentioned:
Bet $20 on roulette and $10 cash + $10 matchplay on BJ
EV = 1/38 * 700 + 37/38 * (-20) + 0.5 * 20 + 0.5 * (-10) = $3.95
Bet $10 cash + $10 matchplay on roulette and $20 cash on BJ
EV = 1/38 * 700 + 37/38 * (-10) + 0.5 * 20 + 0.5 * (-20) = $8.68
It's worth $4.73 more with the matchplay on roulette because you get the $10 discount 37/38 times instead of 1/2 of the time. $10 * (37/38 - 1/2) = $4.73
To take advantage of a loss rebate, you should aim for a payout distribution that maximizes the frequency of the loss (but with a large infrequent win to make sure the actual EV of that payout distribution is still reasonable).
Bookmarks