Exploitable Lucky Ladies + 8D decent game

[Econ]

Consider a blackjack game offering these conditions : 8D H17 DAS 3:2 ; No surrender ; No RSA ; 4 hand splits ; Insurance 2:1 ; Penetration 75 to 80 % depending on dealer. VERY LOW HEAT & Wonging tolerated.

These rules are decent at most if not very bad! But, i've found out that the payout of the Lucky Ladies side bet is making it beatable easily with a HI-LO count. Here is the Payout :

PAYOUT TABLE FOR LUCKY LADIES SIDE BETS* Player’s first two cards Payout
Pair – Queen of hearts (and the house has a blackjack) 1,000 to 1
Pair – Queen of hearts 200 to 1
Pair – 10s, jacks, queens or kings of the same suit 25 to 1
Total of 20 of the same suit 10 to 1
Total of 20 4 to 1


The information below are based on https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....cky-Ladies.pdf

Using only HI-LO, a TC+4 is indicating an advantage to the player (EV 1.1%) and basically every additionnal TC is giving adding 4 percentage point to the EV.

With a Queen of hearts side count, you can detect even more precisely some situations with a significant advantage.

It is estimated that in a 8D game, you'll play that side bet around 5% of the time, which is pretty good in my opinion!

Here are my questions :

Do you think that exploiting this side bet is worth it ? If so, to what extent ? Is it compensating the bad rules ? What additionnal EV can I expect ?

Bonus : If I use CAC2 instead of HI-LO while adding the side bet play to my game, do you think this game can become very interesting ?

Thanks for your answers!

[Econ]

Unfortunately, I don't know these numbers for CAC2 because I haven't bought the system yet. Could you do it with HI-LO ?

Also, another question : Knowing that at +4 the EV for the side bet is 1.1% and that the main bet is 1.81% at that same TC, does that mean I should bet that additionnal $ on the main bet instead of the side bet (EV side bet inferior to EV main bet) ? Does it work like that, or there would be an interaction between the EVs making it advantageous to bet on both ? (I hope i'm clear...english is not my first language)

I appreciate your help, thank you !

[aceside]

Unfortunately, I don't know these numbers for CAC2 because I haven't bought the system yet. Could you do it with HI-LO ?

Also, another question : Knowing that at +4 the EV for the side bet is 1.1% and that the main bet is 1.81% at that same TC, does that mean I should bet that additionnal $ on the main bet instead of the side bet (EV side bet inferior to EV main bet) ? Does it work like that, or there would be an interaction between the EVs making it advantageous to bet on both ? (I hope i'm clear...english is not my first language)

I appreciate your help, thank you !

We can just compare the insurance bet and the LL bet. The probability of an insurance success is proportional to the density of 10s in the remaining deck, whereas that of LL is proportional to the density squared. Insurance is paid 2:1, but LL greater than 4:1. Player may bet on insurance once every 13 hands but every hand on LL. Player may spread insurance 1-16 but flat bet LL. Eliot has found that the maximum amount player may get from LL on your game is about $30 an hour if you flat bet $25 on this side bet whenever you have an edge.

[Archvaldor]

Using only HI-LO, a TC+4 is indicating an advantage to the player (EV 1.1%) and basically every additionnal TC is giving adding 4 percentage point to the EV.

The problem is a lot of your advantage is taken up with the higher payouts which means higher variance.

I don't rate ev-only analysis of this side bet. You need to adjust for the higher variance and look at the effects of removal on each component of the side wager in isolation.

[Cacarulo]

Consider a blackjack game offering these conditions : 8D H17 DAS 3:2 ; No surrender ; No RSA ; 4 hand splits ; Insurance 2:1 ; Penetration 75 to 80 % depending on dealer. VERY LOW HEAT & Wonging tolerated.

These rules are decent at most if not very bad! But, i've found out that the payout of the Lucky Ladies side bet is making it beatable easily with a HI-LO count. Here is the Payout :

PAYOUT TABLE FOR LUCKY LADIES SIDE BETS* Player’s first two cards Payout
Pair – Queen of hearts (and the house has a blackjack) 1,000 to 1
Pair – Queen of hearts 200 to 1
Pair – 10s, jacks, queens or kings of the same suit 25 to 1
Total of 20 of the same suit 10 to 1
Total of 20 4 to 1


The information below are based on https://www.blackjackapprenticeship....cky-Ladies.pdf

Using only HI-LO, a TC+4 is indicating an advantage to the player (EV 1.1%) and basically every additionnal TC is giving adding 4 percentage point to the EV.

With a Queen of hearts side count, you can detect even more precisely some situations with a significant advantage.

It is estimated that in a 8D game, you'll play that side bet around 5% of the time, which is pretty good in my opinion!

Here are my questions :

Do you think that exploiting this side bet is worth it ? If so, to what extent ? Is it compensating the bad rules ? What additionnal EV can I expect ?

Bonus : If I use CAC2 instead of HI-LO while adding the side bet play to my game, do you think this game can become very interesting ?

Thanks for your answers!

The rules are rather mediocre, but if that's what you have, the only way to make it playable is through strict wonging, especially if it's "tolerated".
On the other hand, with CAC2, you'd be approximately 10% better off than with Hi-Lo in terms of SCORE.
I haven't conducted any LL analysis with CAC2, although I do have an index that works. It's always a good idea to use it when the occasion arises.
You would need to analyze the game with CVData using that index, but for that, you'd have to discuss it with Norman :-)
Archvaldor made a very valid comment regarding variance; never rely solely on EV.

Hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Cac

[Econ]

Thanks for your comment on variance, it is a good point!

Maybe I should stay away from LL if I have a limited bankroll in that case. Regarding wonging, yes i'm strictly back counting and entering only at +2. I was just wondering if you guys think adding LL would give me a significant advantage or if it is not worth my time. Unfortunately, it is the only casino close to my place...at least i can benefit from the low heat (hopefully also LL!)

If you plan doing some analysis on LL in the future, I'd be very interested to have further details. Who knows maybe it will be promising! If I buy the CAC2 package, does it come with the LL index ? I only have CVCX for the moment, but I plan buying CVdata and CAC2 this year.

Have a good day !

Econ

[Cacarulo]

Thanks for your comment on variance, it is a good point!

Maybe I should stay away from LL if I have a limited bankroll in that case. Regarding wonging, yes i'm strictly back counting and entering only at +2. I was just wondering if you guys think adding LL would give me a significant advantage or if it is not worth my time. Unfortunately, it is the only casino close to my place...at least i can benefit from the low heat (hopefully also LL!)

If you plan doing some analysis on LL in the future, I'd be very interested to have further details. Who knows maybe it will be promising! If I buy the CAC2 package, does it come with the LL index ? I only have CVCX for the moment, but I plan buying CVdata and CAC2 this year.

Have a good day !

Econ

No, you won't find an index for LL in the document. If you acquire the system, I can send it to you privately.
Regarding CVData, my personal advice is to buy it as soon as you can, even before CAC2.

Sincerely,
Cac

[Norm]

I have a discussion on the LL variance problem at: https://qfit.com/book/ModernBlackjackPage219.htm

[Econ]

Interesting, Norm, thanks for the share. This is very useful piece of information.

Your analysis is considering a weaker payout than what is offered in my casino, but I guess the same pattern could be observed with the payout that I mentionned. Also, was it based on 6D or 8D ?

[Norm]

6D. Here is more detail. https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

[Freightman]

6D. Here is more detail. https://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjacksidebet1.htm

Good shit. Worthy of more in depth study.

[Lester]

I have the system and am extremely interested in LL; fellow players are frequently advising me to "put money on the Lucky Ladies circle." Any indices about LL will be greatly appreciated.

[Cacarulo]

I have the system and am extremely interested in LL; fellow players are frequently advising me to "put money on the Lucky Ladies circle." Any indices about LL will be greatly appreciated.

You can write to me privately, and I'll gladly send you those indices.

Sincerely,
Cac