Quote Originally Posted by Cacarulo View Post
I will chime in. I want to see if I understand correctly what is being discussed. If I have the following streak from consecutive coin flips: HTTTTTTTTTTH, how many streaks of length 10 do you see? And of length 9?
Another question: above you said that in 1000 tosses of a fair coin it is not possible to obtain a streak of length 9 or longer, is that correct?
Thank you.

Sincerely,
Cac
“Another question: above you said that in 1000 tosses of a fair coin it is not possible to obtain a streak of length 9 or longer, is that correct?”
Sorry I missed the another part. I don’t say it is not possible.

The probability to get 9 consecutive heads/tails has a probability, like anything else: 1/.5^9= 0.001953125 or 1 in 512. The probability for the streak is another beast: 1/.5^9*.5^2= 0.00048828125 or 1 in 2,048.

Simulations show results closer to these calculations Warren Weaver did before you and I. Of course there will be a string of 9-length outcomes, but a lower probability than an 8-length streak and much lower than a 4-length streak.

Switching gears – How are doing in casino with your CAC counting system? I said in your thread: Honestly I dont like its name and your penname. Sorry, it sounds cacophonic and self-deprecating. I don’t really trust self-deprecation.

Your system appears to me a tweaking of HiOptII, or OmegaII, or ZenII. My favourite is the easiest. 3,4,5,6=+1; T=-1. The true advantage is in taking insurance. BC is more like BS (not basic strategy). The fluctuations are very dangerous. The casino beasts also make it harder and harder. 1-10 spread min-max?

No offence, just my honest opinion.