Most of the advice you read is wrong

[toolyp]

Here are some common pieces of conventional wisdom about how to get away with card counting:


-Don't use a large spread
-Don't raise your bet after a loss
-Don't lower your bet after a win
-Don't back-count
-Play only short sessions and then move on


Before I explain why I disagree with these, let's walk through the logic behind this advice


In order to win money, you need to be able to play. In order to play, you have to ensure the casino doesn't catch you. If you take these measures they will give you more time at the table, which will enable you to win the money. In other words, we're trading EV for longevity. We're hoping to win less per hour, but make it up on volume.


The reason this advice gets so popular is that there is a sense in which these are all true. If you do things like this, it will probably give you more hours at the table. A person who has been backed off a few times, comes to the books or the internet forums and reads this advice will suddenly find they get backed off less. They'll be convinced. This is the way to play.


The problem is that they are not likely to be any more successful getting the money. This kind of advice can cut your win rate from 50-90% or more. I've seen it myself. Counters playing a "respectful" spread on a weak game, glaring at me because I'm spreading a lot on the same game. Their win rate is barely above minimum wage and they're glaring at me because I'm breaking the "unspoken rules" of the game. I've even had these guys make comments to me "you're being really blatant here."


Mind you, I never got backed off of those games where the "respectful" guys were mad at me. Including hundreds of hours on one game with a SCORE over 100. So, I wasn't actually doing anything wrong. I got in, got the money, and got out without getting caught.


There are better ways to evade casino detection. They are better because they don't involve giving up your advantage for a vague hope of longevity. These include:


-Studying the crew and finding weak pit bosses/shifts to pick on
-Studying the common methods of game protection so that you can avoid being caught by them
-Finding out how this casino protects its games, then designing an aggressive strategy that avoids their defenses
-Finding stronger games that the casino is not defending against
-Playing a strong game that falls into a casino's mental heuristic of how civilians play


I'm not promising you won't get backed off. I'm saying that you will be able to play strong games, with a lowered risk of backoffs, such that you won't have to worry about occasional heat ruining your livelihood.


I'll finish with an example. I was playing a good double deck game, spreading 1-12 on it. The same game where the guy got mad at me because I was being "really blatant." There was another guy who frequently played that game. Played like a total maniac. Min to max. But the guy was so good at making it look natural that even I didn't figure out he was counting for several sessions. He just looked like a hunch player. I finally heard he got backed off, but the guy must have gotten hundreds of hours into a strong double deck game, spreading table min to max, before he finally got tossed. 6 figures in EV easily. The guy with a "respectful" 1-4 spread in green with heavy cover can't get that kind of EV playing full time for a year.

Remember when the min-max spread was 1-500? Why the heck did they lower the margin?

[moo321]

No. It's still very relevant. An old publishing date doesn't mean the info is not still useful.


You didn't even explain what you think was inaccurate, so I'm left guessing what your disagreement is. I'm assuming you think the game has been fundamentally changed by facial recognition or computer skill checks, but those were all around when those articles were written, and they're not responsible for most backoffs:


>When you’re identified quickly, it’s because: (1) Someone recognized you, (2) There is a recent flyer being distributed with your photo on it, (3) You just used a poison name, or (4) You did something really stupid.


>And that’s why the mention of FRS hits a nerve with me. You never see high-level players complaining about FRS, or even speculating that FRS was the cause of their demise. It’s only the rookies who complain about the dreaded FRS. And why is that? Because they are making excuses for their own ineptitude. In most cases, these quick backoffs are the result of obvious, amateurish play, and poor game management. The players were foolish, and probably didn’t notice the various heat warnings that occurred (the pit boss making a phone call five minutes before the backoff, the weird question the boss asked when he looked up your player’s account, the dealer’s sudden half-shoeing of you, etc.), or they ignored or poorly responded to those heat warnings.


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...nd-scapegoats/


The fundamentals are still the fundamentals. You need to know how casinos protect games. You need to know how to recognize and manage heat. None of that has changed.

[Archvaldor]

No. It's still very relevant. An old publishing date doesn't mean the info is not still useful.


You didn't even explain what you think was inaccurate, so I'm left guessing what your disagreement is. I'm assuming you think the game has been fundamentally changed by facial recognition or computer skill checks, but those were all around when those articles were written, and they're not responsible for most backoffs:
.

A computer today is 10,000 times faster than it was 20 years ago. That makes any kind of automated surveillance significantly more efficient.

The had valve computers in the 1960's but they weren't much use tracking counters.

But that is far from the only difference.

1. 20 years ago information about advantage play was much less accessible to both players and the industry.
2. Player profiling was based mostly on observation. now they use big data.
3. The legal situation has become more aggressive
4. Internal procedures and regulations within casinos has become stricter.
5. Mobile technology was nothing like as dominant 20 years ago. Information travels faster through multiple properties.
6. The gambling industry has expanded.

That's just off the top of my head.

And before someone points this out - yes there are still sawdust joints where they are just as clueless as they were in the 1950's let alone 2000's. But just ignoring all the developments without any kind of recognition of the changes is just dumb.

Btw You keep referring to Grosjean. Grosjean's "Beyond Counting" is mostly data derived from C simulations of hole-card and next-card information mainly in blackjack and carny games, mixed in with some other unusual ap opportunities. It is not about everything as you seem to think.
For example there is no information about internet bonus hustling as you suggested in another thread-there is literally no information about that at all. Nor as you have suggested in this thread is it mainly about cover. The cover advice Grosjean gives would be of limited value to most modern AP's. Grosjean is non-Caucasian and was often actively contemptuous of card counters and card counting (his book is called "Beyond Counting) it is very questionable how much of his experience would be relevant to most aspiring card counters even in the 2000's let alone now.

[moo321]

James Grosjean is white. And he has taken millions of dollars off of casinos. He is easily the most knowledgeable AP that shares information in any public arena. I would always take his advice over that of some internet handle on an anonymous message board.


You're clearly buying into rumors that the casinos are all CIA hackers that are catching you with magic facial recognition software, when that's still really rare. Casinos love to spread this myth so that people back themselves off. Most people are still caught because they're obvious, they used heated up names, they're flyered in the area, etc. Same as it was in the 1970s.


Most casinos still don't have very good passive FRS. They require a good, square shot with a pan-and-sweep, which means you're already heated up enough that they're running your name and face.

[G Man]

Casinos love to spread this myth so that people back themselves off. Most people are still caught because they're obvious, they used heated up names, they're flyered in the area, etc. Same as it was in the 1970s.


Most casinos still don't have very good passive FRS. They require a good, square shot with a pan-and-sweep, which means you're already heated up enough that they're running your name and face.

100% right !

[Archvaldor]

And he has taken millions of dollars off of casinos. He is easily the most knowledgeable AP that shares information. I would always take his advice ....<snip cringeworthy fanboy eulogy>

I didn't criticize Grosjean. I am saying you are mostly misquoting and referencing him incorrectly.

If you have a quotation or reference or could even vaguely describe what you are talking about by all means do so. But I suspect you can't. You come across as if you think just mentioning his name all the time adds weight to what you are saying. It doesn't.

You're clearly buying into rumors that the casinos are all CIA hackers that are catching you with magic facial recognition software,

I did not mention facial recognition at all. You do like to change the subject of the conversation a lot.

[moo321]

If you have a quotation or reference or could even vaguely describe what you are talking about by all means do so. But I suspect you can't. You come across as if you think just mentioning his name all the time adds weight to what you are saying. It doesn't.

I quite literally just did that. I gave a link and a quote from an article he wrote. And yes, quoting Grosjean does bolster one's argument, because he's one of the most successful APs of all time. Both in developing theory and methods to attack the game, as well as success in actually making money.

[Archvaldor]

I quite literally just did that. I gave a link and a quote from an article he wrote.

You wrote at the start of this thread in response to this question...

How would you suggest studying the methods used to protect games common/specific to the particular casino?


"Beyond Counting and Exhibit CAA by James Grosjean are even better if you can find them."

I am asking you to substantiate that with a page reference or some kind of explanation of what you are actually talking about. Because I think you don't know. I think you want to make out you are super-cool by quoting a book most people can't get hold of. This isn't the first time you've done it.

Later in the thread you added a link to an article which discusses FRS-something no one was talking about but you. That is irrelevant.

And yes, quoting Grosjean does bolster one's argument, because he's one of the most successful APs of all time. Both in developing theory and methods to attack the game, as well as success in actually making money.

Oh will you please stop man he's not going to invite you to the prom.

[Norm]

Nasty thread closed.