Full Early Surrender Deviations

[fullearlysurrender]

A casino where I play has 6 decks and offers full early surrender, h17, no hole card peak, double any two cards, double after split, resplit up to four times (aa only once and you may hit), bj pays 3:2.

Calculators give me different edges for the player ranging from .15% to 2% and I wonder if anyone knows the exact player edge. At what TC would you start hitting 10v9 instead of doubling, surrender an 8 vs A, and surrender 13/12 vs t? What other major deviations would you consider for this game?

[DSchles]

I make the player BS edge 0.275. I'm assuming that the split aces can be hit but not doubled. If they can be doubled, add another 0.152, to make player edge 0.427.

Hit 10 vs. 9 at TC < -2. Surrender 8 vs. A at TC >=+10. Surrender 13 vs. T at TC >=+3. Surrender 12 vs. T at TC >=+8.

Is this a land casino? In the U.S.?

Don

[fullearlysurrender]

This is a land base casino in Colombia. Did you use an online calculator to arrive at that figure or some of your own? Also, at what TC would you surrender 15 vs 9 and 16 vs 8? Yes split aces may be hit

[fullearlysurrender]

Is there a TC or deck composition where BS edge would be negative and that happens more than 2.5% of the time with deck penetration of 1.5?

[k_c]

I get player edge ~= .1646%

My revised CA generates running count indexes based on a player hand (total or composition) and pen (cards remaining). The RC indexes at midshoe translated to true count virtually always is pretty much in agreement with reliable sources. In order to get a reasonable estimate of TC at midshoe for 6 decks the RC indexes need to be divided by 3 (decks).

So for HiLo:
index for doubling hard 10 v 9 ~>= -2
index for ES hard 8 v A ~>= 1
index for ES hard 13 v T ~>= 3
index for ES hard 12 v T ~>= 8

Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1} H17, D2, ENHC, HSA, NDASA, DAS
6 decks, pen = 156 cards remaining

Hard 10

            2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      T      A

ES          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
LS          -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Pair        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Double  >=-27  >=-30  >=-33  >=-36  >=-42  >=-20  >=-13   >=-5      -      -
Stand       h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h

Hard 8

            2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      T      A

ES          -      -      -      -      -      -      -  >=108   >=66    >=4
LS          -      -      -      -      -      -      -  >=108   >=80      -
Pair        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Double   >=43   >=29   >=19   >=11    >=6   >=45  >=117      -      -      -
Stand       h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h      h

Hard 13

            2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      T      A

ES          -      -      -      -      -   >=77   >=59   >=40   >=10  >=-36
LS          -      -      -      -      -   >=77   >=59   >=40   >=24   >=45
                                                                         <46
                                                                       >=101
Pair        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Double      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Stand    >=-3   >=-7  >=-11  >=-15  >=-22   >=96      h      h      h   >=45

Hard 12

            2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9      T      A

ES          -      -      -      -      -      -      -   >=63   >=23  >=-27
LS          -      -      -      -      -      -      -   >=63   >=41  >=101
Pair        -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Double      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Stand    >=10    >=5    >=0   >=-4  >=-10      h      h      h      h   >=71

k_c

[DSchles]

"I get player edge ~= .1646%"

I used BJA3, pp. 492-3. Can you show me your breakdown to see where we may differ.

6D H17 = -0.761. DAS = + 0.144. Split aces once with multiple hits = +0.177. ES = +0.715. Total: +0.275.

Don

[k_c]

"I get player edge ~= .1646%"

I used BJA3, pp. 492-3. Can you show me your breakdown to see where we may differ.

6D H17 = -0.761. DAS = + 0.144. Split aces once with multiple hits = +0.177. ES = +0.715. Total: +0.275.

Don

I just input the rule options into my CA at once and click 'Compute'. I don't parse the value of each rule deviation individually.

k_c

[Cacarulo]

I just input the rule options into my CA at once and click 'Compute'. I don't parse the value of each rule deviation individually.

k_c

Your numbers are correct for ENHC (I get 0.167306%). But this is NHC.

Sincerely,
Cac

[k_c]

Your numbers are correct for ENHC (I get 0.167306%). But this is NHC.

Sincerely,
Cac

If not ENHC I get ~.2750% player edge.

k_c

[chuckybaby]

Just expressing my surprise that such an exceptionally good game is being located and analyzed on an open forum

[k_c]

Your numbers are correct for ENHC (I get 0.167306%). But this is NHC.

Sincerely,
Cac

Not important but I get player edge of .1667% for OBO. The .1646 value neglects to allow surrender versus up cards 2-9.

The confusion to me is expressing rule as NHC. I think OBO (original bets only) is better.

k_c

[DSchles]

I just input the rule options into my CA at once and click 'Compute'. I don't parse the value of each rule deviation individually.

But you could, of course, do them one at a time, if we were trying to see where our difference was. In this case, you'd see that you included ENHC, which wasn't mentioned by the OP.

Don

[toolyp]

"I get player edge ~= .1646%"

I used BJA3, pp. 492-3. Can you show me your breakdown to see where we may differ.

6D H17 = -0.761. DAS = + 0.144. Split aces once with multiple hits = +0.177. ES = +0.715. Total: +0.275.

Don

Why does a casino allow a game like that?! Are they illiterate? I still believe they have the edge because of bust.